서해안 시대를 맞이하여 21세기를 열어나갈 새萬金 千拓綜合開發事業 기공식이 지난해 11월 28일 전북 부안군 변산면 대항리 현장에서 盧泰愚대통령, 曺京植농림수산부장관, 金榮鎭農漁村振興公私社長, 국회농림수산위원회 위원장, 전북도지사, 地域出身國會議員등 내외 귀빈과 지역 주민 2,400여명이 참석한 가운데 열려 사상 최대의 간척사업으로서 첫발을 내딛었다. 이날 盧泰愚대통령은 치사를 통해 "자손만대에 물려줄 웅대한 국토확장의 첫삽을 뜨게 되어 깊은 감회를 느낀다"면서 "만경, 김제의 넓은 벌이 우리나라의 곡창으로 겨레의 삶을 보장해온 터전이었듯이 새만금의 광활한 간척지를 21세기 번영을 기약하는 땅이 되도록 하자"고 당부하였다. 새만금사업의 공사기간은 '91년부터 98년까지 외곽방조제를 완공하고 2004년까지 내부개발을 완료할 예정이고, 총 사업비 1조 3천억원을 투입하게된다. 사업지역은 1도 3군 1시 19읍면동 (전북 옥구군, 부안군, 김제군, 군산시)에 걸쳐서 40,100ha를 개발하게 된다. 주요시설로는 부안군 변산면 대항리에서 可力島, 新侍島, 夜味島, 및 飛鷹島를 연결하는 세계 최장의 방조제 33km를 축조하고 방조제 위에는 4차선 도로를 설치하고 장항선이 군산하구둑을 경유, 이 방조제를 거쳐 고군산군도까지 갈 수 있도록 하는 철도부지도 건설된다. 이와 함께 새만금국제항을 개설, 연간 5,000만톤의 하역능력을 갖게 되고 고군산군도를 잇는 관광휴양지가 형성된다.

Up to now, monthly water balance analysis has been dominantly used for the water resources planning. But, it is more reasonable to explain the variation of spatial and temporal distribution of water by the daily water balance model with daily streamflow data. Since we are recently facing the problems of regional unbalance of water quantity, and of multiuse of irrigation water, and of deterioration of water quality, it is urgently needed to develop the daily water balance model to solve those problems and establish the rational plannings of agricultural water resources. In the circumstances, Daily water Balance(DAWABA) model for irrigation reservoirs was developed and the operation rule of irrigation resorvoir during drought season was established.

Various soil behaviors usually occurring in the geotechnical problems, such as, cutting and embankments, stability of slope, seepage, consolidations, shearing failures and liquefaction, should be predicted and analyzed in any way. An approach of these predictions may be followed by the development of the constitutive equations as first and subsequently solved by numerical methods. The purpose of this paper is develop the constitutive equation of sands uder monotonic or cyclic loadings. The constitutive equation which is based on elasto-plastic theory, modified anisotropic consolidated stress parameter by Sekiguchi et al and Pender's theory is derived. And the equation is included a new stress parameter, hardening function, Bauschinger's effects and Pender's theory. The model is later evaluated and confirmed the validity by the test data of Ottawa sand, Banwol sand Hongseong sand. The following conclustions may be drawn: 1. The consititutive equation which is based on elasto-plastic theory, modified anisotropic consolidated stress parpameter by Sekiguchi et al and Pender's theory is derived. The equation in included a new stress parameter, hardening function, Bauschinger's effect and Pender's theory. 2. For Ottawa sand, the result of the constitutive equation shows a better agreement than that of Oka et al. The result of axial strain agrees well with the tested data. However, the result of horizontal strain is little bit off for the cyclic loadings or large stress. It is thought that the deviation may be improved by considering Poisson's ratio and precise measurement of shear modulus. 3. Banwol sand is used for the strain and stress tests with different relative densitites and confining pressures. The predeicted result shows a good agreement with the tested data because the required material parameters were directly measurd and determined form this laboratory. 4. For Hongseong sand, the tests under same amplitude of cyclic deviatoric stress shows a similar result with the tested data in absolute strain. It shows the acute shape of turning point because the sine wave of input is used in the test but the serrated wave in prediction.

This study was carried out to investigate the mechanical behaviour of the plate on a Winkler's foundation according to the soil-structures relative stiffness and the applicability of the conventional analysis method. For the above purpose, Winkler's constant of 4, 15, 25 and 100kg/$cm^2$/cm was considered and the plate thickness of 20, 30, 50, 100 and 150cm was adopted. Results obtained from the numerical examples are summarized as follow: 1. The effects of elastic foundation is considerable for plates with small flexural rigidity. 2. As the Winkler's constant increases, the bending moment in the plate becomes localized near the loading point. 3. The stresses evaluated by the conventional method not correct even for rigid ground such as rock. 4. If the relative stiffness of the plate is very large, for example the plate thickness is larger than 100cm, the conventional analysis method can be justified for the design purposes. 5. On assumption the flexural rigidity of the plate is infinite, the interaction of soil and plate can be ignored in design consideration. The numerical examples in this paper show that when the plate thickness is more than 100cm, the effects of elastic foundation almost disappear. In practical design, soil-plate interaction should be taken into account, because the 100cm-thickness of the plate will not be practical value in usual sites.

The main purpose of this paper is to present both the natural frequencies and mode shapes of tapered beams under tensile axial force. The differential equation governing planar free vibration for tapered beams under tensile axial force is derived as nondimensional form. The three kinds of cross sectional shape are considered in differential equation. The Runge-Kutta method and Determinant Search method are used to perform the integration of the differential equation and to determine the natural frequencies, respectively. The hinged-hinged, hinged-clamped, clamped-clamped and constraints are applied in numerical examples. The lowest four nondimensional natural frequencies are reported as the function of nondimensional tensile axial force. The fundamental natural frequencies are presented when section ratios and nondimensional axial forces are varied. The effects of cross sectional shapes are reported and some typical mode shapes are also presented.

A prototype probabilistic approach to thickness design for asphalt pavement surface course was developed using first-order second moment probability model. The tensile strain (load effect) developing at the bottom of surface layer due to the wheel load and the critical strain (resistance) of asphalt concrete were used as random variables for pavement reliability analysis. Based on the parameters for load effect and resistance data collected from reference and field, simulated data were generated by Monte Carlo method for reliability evaluation of the pavement for a typical rural highway. Thickness of pavement surface course was defined in terms of target reliability of the pavement, growth factor of traffic, design life of pavement and resistance of the asphalt concrete to be placed on the pavement. According to these rationales, prototype thickness design chrats were sugested through example studies. From these, similar design charts can be developed for many pavements if appropriate data and target reliability are determined.

This paper aims at investigating the effect of steel ratio and the magnitude of edge-ratio on the mechanical characteristics of reinforced concrete ring sector plate. The influence of steel bars was taken into account by coupling stiffness matrix of the steel bar element with that of the concrete plate element without dealing with separate element of steel bar and by establishing the composite stiffness matrix, which leads to the desirable result which does not increase th number of element could be obtained. Through case studies with 6 cases various steel ratios in ring sector plate supported at four edges and 4 cases with different open angles, the influence of the steel ratio was examined. A numerical analysis to find out the effect of the steel ratio d ue to above mentioned cases was carried out by 4 boundary conditions ; all edges clamped (B.C-1), all edges simply supported (B.C-2), curvilinear two edges clamped and other edges free (B.C-3) and curvilinear two edges simply supported and other edges free(B.C-4). The main results obtained are summarized as follows : 1. The effect of steel ratio on the magnitude of lateral deflection and x-directional bending moment at the center of sector plate and the midpoint of outer and inner curvilinear edges is almost the same up to $30^{\circ}$ of open angle. Beyond $30^{\circ}$ of the angle, the larger the angle, the greater the effect of ratio. 2. In design works using balanced steel ratio, the effect of steel bar can be ignored. But for larger open angles, especially greater than $90^{\circ}$, it proves desirable to consider the effect of steel bar. 3. The effect of the arc length of center circle/straight edge on lateral deflection and bending moment is remarkable in B.C-2. For larger open angle, the effect is also noted except for B.C-3 which turn out hardly affected. 4. The effect of the radius of curvature/straight side length on lateral deflection and x-directional bending moment is noted in B.C-2. As open angle increases, B.C-1 and B.C-3 almost agree and B.C-2 approaches B.C-4.

A mathematical model, UNSATR which predicts the seepage flow through the body of dike especially under the tidal fluctuation has been developed. This model has been revised from UNSAT2 model which was developed on the basis of the saturated-unsaturated theory by Neuman. UNSATR has been verified and applied to the hydraulic model in order to estimated the seepage quantity, the formation of free water surface etc. The results lead to the following conclusions : 1. Seepage rates between the mathematical model and hydraulic model experiment are very similar to each other both in constant and transient water level conditions. 2. The lapsed time to be steady state of the free water surface becomes late as the tidal levels are relatively low mainly due to the seepage flow from the unsaturated zone of the body of dike. 3. Under the transient state of water levels, owing to the flow from the unsaturated domain, streamlines crossing to the free water surface are found and time lag during a falling tide may allow the free water surface inside the body of dike to stand at a high level than the outside water level. 4. The utility and validity of UNSATR model are convinced when the analyses on seepage problems through the porous embankment of the soil structures on the conditions of the steady and unsteady states are carried out.

The objective of this study is to develop a real-time runoff forecasting model considering stochastic component. The model is composed of deterministic and stochastic components. Simplified tank model was selected as a deterministic runoff forecasting model. The time series of estimation residual resulting from the tank model simulation was analyzed and was best suited to the second-order autoregressive model. ARTANK model which combined the tank model with the autoregressive process was developed. And it was applied to a BANWEOL basin for validation. The simulation results showed a good agreement with the observed field data.