이 글은 한국의 인구변천이 환경변화에 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는가를 규명하고 있다. 이 관계는 기본적으로 경로모형(path model)의 틀로서 설명되고 있다. 인구증가는 그 자체만으로도 직접적으로 환경을 오염시키는 원인이 되고 있다. 인구증가는 또한 각각 도시화 및 산업화를 유발시킴으로서 환경오염의 간접적인 원인이 되고 있다. 한편, 도시화와 산업화는 서로 상승작용을 통해서 환경오염에 영향을 미치고 있다. 이 글에서는 이와 같은 이론적 틀에 입각하여 한국의 인구성장, 도시화 및 공업화의 추세를 살펴보고 이들 요인들이 환경변화에 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는가를 분석하고 있다. 또한 환경오염의 변화양태를 대기오염과 수질오염 그리고 폐기물의 변화추세로써 살펴보고 있다. 마지막으로 환경변화의 결과가 한국적인 상황에서 어떻게 나타나고 있는가가 논의되고 있다.

The "Dismal Theorem" (Essay) of Maithus is juxtaposed to the utopianism of both Marquis de Condorcet and of William Godwin who believed in the perfectibility of man and of the greater power of civilization over that of population. The socio-political environment that gave birth to the neo-Maltbusianism and of the economic Malthusianism is briefly sketched on, along with the discrepancy between the early theories (1978) of Malthus and the later Malthusian theory; nemely, the biological population principles of his early period runs head-on into his theory of effective demand and underconsumption. Malthus belonged to both the anti-Ricardian and the Ricardian classical tradition, and his attempt to reconcile the anomalies was not very satisfactory. Karl Marx criticized Malthus for his incon-sistent radical conservative theory of population and John Maynard Keynes came to the rescue of this Maltbusian dilemma in the 1930's, with but a morsel of success.f success.

In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine the pattern of mortality in Korea during 1970~80. By applying the age-sex specific mortality rates quoted from 1978~79 life tables for Korea published by NBOS, EPB to those of the West pattern of regional model life tables and the far eastern pattern of model life tables for developing countries, life expectancy at birth were calculated. Also the author reviewed the trends of death rates, life expectancy and cause of death using vital registration data and other materials. Summarized results are as follows; 1. Crude death rates in Korea was reduced to one fifth in the 1983 compared to that in 1920's. Life expectancy also improved to almost double in 1985 compared to 1920's. But the difference in the life expectancy between male and female increased during that period and it was recorded as 6.4 years in 1985. This discrepancy was mainly due to the different tempo of decreasing in mortality level by sex, particularly, for the age 40 and above. 2. For the pattern of mortality in Korea, it showed that female mortality could accounted closer to the West pattern model life tables. There were high similarity between actual pattern prevalent in Korea and West pattern. And its coefficient of variance was also very low. However for the case of male, it was difficult to find the exact model life tables for explaining the actual situation on the male mortality pattern which means exist considerable dissimilarity in older ages. The Far eastern pattern of U.N. model life tables show better results than West pattern, however, the deviation of the pattern to actual was severe. Also in Far eastern pattern, high coefficient of variance was existed. Furthermore it was found in the paper that the mortality level of Korean male for the age 40 and above were much higher than that of Far eastern pattern which was reflected the high mortality of the male adult in Far east region. 3. The analysis of cause of death showed that circulatory disease such as cerebrovascular disease and hypertensive disease accounted for the leading cause of death in Korea for the age 40 and above. There should he paid special attention to chronic retrogressive diseases for the older age groups. For younger age groups, injury and poisoning were reported as important cause of death.

It is well recognized that, in most developing countries, rapid population growth has been a serious problem. And there is a growing tendency to regard the problem as a political issue in these coun-tries. So far, many developing countries have formulated and implemented population policies aiming at an reduction of such population growth. This study attempts, in policy perspective, to examine theoretically the process and determinants of population policy making and implementation in those developing countries. In doing this, it gives emphasis on explaining population policy determinants and therefore, deals with (1) decision makers' perceptions and attitudes, (2) governmental structure and capability, (3) mass fertiliry behavior, and (4) foreign aid agencies' role.

Fertility has been declined since 1966 (see Table 1). This fertility reduction was duely caused by age at first marriage, induced abortion and contraceptive practice which has been largely increased in recent years. Although tbe proximate determinant such as induced abortion, age at marriage and breastfeeding can and do have an effect on fertility, the principal cause of the reduction in fertility in Korea during the fertility transition can be supported by correlation between level of fertility and contraceptive prevalence (See Fig. 4). Taking a regression equation between fertility (TER. Y) and prevalence level (X), the total fertility rate in 1984 was estimated as 1.9 and 2.1 based on lenear and expotential function shown as follow; $Y_1$=5.709-0.0549 X and $Y_2$_______80________ 1+e2.433+0.017X ($R^2$=O. 93) ($R^2$=0. 96) Where $Y_1$ and $Y_2$ denote total fertility rates obtained through two equations respectivelly. The peak of contraceptive prevalence was assumdd as 80 percent which is almost upper limit in human society. On the other hand, an observed value of 1984 fertility level obtained from five month period shows 2.1 which is coincident with logistic fitting after the adjustment of response error assumed around 10 to 20 percent, At any rate, fertility of Korean women will have been reached replacement level (2.1) by 1985.Thus policy for family planning program must be reviewed toward the direction of integrated approach particularly with MCH program inasmuch as fertility in Korea has already shown population replacement level that require more good quality of service in family planning and their There must be an advanced level of fertility in Korea because wide use of contraception and induced life abortion and age at marriage will effect modern fertility which shows up and down trend between 2.1 and 1.5 in general.

There have been numerous studies in Korea and other countries of which the major hypotheses are identifying and dearibing the conditions under which the value of children has been formed. The present study proposes to view the formation of the value of children as a correlate of family's consumption-saving and work4eisure behavior pattern. The objectives of the proposed study are to identify the socio-economic and demographic factors determining the family's consumption-saving and work-leisure behavior pattern and to analyse the relationship between the value of children and this behavior pattern. The conceptual framwork of the analysis is that an individual family's socio-economic and demographic factors influence and shape the consumption-saving and work-leisure behaviors and these behaviors in turn influence and reflect the correlates and proximate determinants of the family'sfertility. In this paper, regression model is used to analyse the hypothesized relationship among the various variables. The regression methods used are first and second stage multiple regressions. In addition, MONOVA has been used to show the interactions. Data used are collected from the government publicactions. The major findings from this study are as follows: As the living Standard improves, n individual family's consumption of necessities and its working hours decline, while savings and leisure activities increase. The phenomena result in the fertility reduction as can be seen in the more developed conntries. Child-bearing and rearing activities are found to be the important component to determine the condumption-saving and work-leisure activies. The married women's labor participation, and the investment in education and health are also found to be the factors reducing fertility rate.