A Review of Relationship Between Level of Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence in Korea: Some Implication for Policy Suggestion

최근의 피임실천수준과 출산력추이에 관한 고찰 -몇가지 정책적 제언을 중심으로-

Fertility has been declined since 1966 (see Table 1). This fertility reduction was duely caused by age at first marriage, induced abortion and contraceptive practice which has been largely increased in recent years. Although tbe proximate determinant such as induced abortion, age at marriage and breastfeeding can and do have an effect on fertility, the principal cause of the reduction in fertility in Korea during the fertility transition can be supported by correlation between level of fertility and contraceptive prevalence (See Fig. 4). Taking a regression equation between fertility (TER. Y) and prevalence level (X), the total fertility rate in 1984 was estimated as 1.9 and 2.1 based on lenear and expotential function shown as follow; $Y_1$=5.709-0.0549 X and $Y_2$_______80________ 1+e2.433+0.017X ($R^2$=O. 93) ($R^2$=0. 96) Where $Y_1$ and $Y_2$ denote total fertility rates obtained through two equations respectivelly. The peak of contraceptive prevalence was assumdd as 80 percent which is almost upper limit in human society. On the other hand, an observed value of 1984 fertility level obtained from five month period shows 2.1 which is coincident with logistic fitting after the adjustment of response error assumed around 10 to 20 percent, At any rate, fertility of Korean women will have been reached replacement level (2.1) by 1985.Thus policy for family planning program must be reviewed toward the direction of integrated approach particularly with MCH program inasmuch as fertility in Korea has already shown population replacement level that require more good quality of service in family planning and their There must be an advanced level of fertility in Korea because wide use of contraception and induced life abortion and age at marriage will effect modern fertility which shows up and down trend between 2.1 and 1.5 in general.