• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.137-142
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• 2006

Cost and duration is important factors which directly affect profit therefore must be forecasted correctly to accomplish success of projects. So construction company uses EVMS(Earned Value Management System) to forecast final cost and duration. But previous forecasting model has low accuracy because of its linear forecasting method and can't reflect characteristic of company and project and changes as each progress. This paper presents cost and duration forecasting model using the slope prediction of cost and duration as each progress to reflect the various characteristics of construction industry. EVMS data of 23 road construction projects was used to make up regression analysis equation of slope forecasting model.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.84-92
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• 2007

To reduce uncertainties and make rational plans, the presumption of contingency against a failure of projects and an occurrence of unpredictable risks is important with accurate estimations as the work progressing. Therefore, if the presumption of contingency reflecting uncertainties carries out at a decision making point of time, be able to prepare for risks. The purpose of this paper is to present a management process of contingency through the performance analysis of project. In the cost planning phase, this study offers a process which is predictable contingency and predicts the range of fluctuation of the cost, laking an advantage of EVM in construction phase. With reflecting the results from this procedure, this study presents a process, rationally manageable contingency.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.4 s.26
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• pp.80-90
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• 2005

Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.405-410
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• 2002

Earned Value Management System(EVMS) has been institutionalized as an advanced management technique of construction project lately. And its research has been in the active progress in order to utilize the earned value concept as a project management tool for construction project ordered by both government and private sector. However it is necessary to test and prove the EVMS's adaptability to our construction environment by EVMS's several of operations before its introduction. Project forecasting phase of EVMS is the Estimate at Completion by utilizing earned value data. So, the purpose of this study is to propose EAC evaluation method for evaluation the accuracy of the EAC and encouraging cost realism, and to test for proving the validity of the evaluation methods through hypothesis testing.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.105-112
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• 2002

The EVMS(Earned Value Management System) comes from C/SCSC which was first released by the United States Department of Defense in December 1967, and preyed very powerful and efficient project management tool from a lot of practices. Although it is an excellent tool, we can not be succeed appling foreign system due to the differences of construction culture and law between the Korean and US construction industries. EAC(Estimate at Completion) is one of the most important functions in the EVMS. The purpose of this study is to propose the improved EAC method according to the performance indices better than old that and to prove from examples. In advance, the improved EAC method is to estimate more exactly costs and to promote efficiency in construction projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.274-277
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• 2006

The EAC(Estimate at Completion) among existing methods, which estimate cost and time effectively, help managers anticipate changeable several results at the point of $15{\sim}30%$ in the project progress. However, this method may cause such some problems as not to consider the periodically changing circumstances caused by construction risks or uncertainties which can affect the cost and time in the project, and to regard collected and accumulated data only as a single value when predicting the results on the progress. Accordingly, it is very difficult to accept the even small range of variability based on the anticipation of EAC. Consequently, the study focuses on the possibility methodology to anticipate time and cost accurately on the way to utilize EVMS(Earned Value Management System), and also suggest the way to perform the right estimation of EAC as considering various risks and uncertainties in construction projects.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.29-38
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• 2019

In stability and settlement management of soft ground, the settlement prediction technology has been continuously developed and used to reduce construction cost and confirm the exact land use time. However, the preexistence prediction methods such as hyperbolic method, Asaoka method and Hoshino method are difficult to predict the settlement accurately at the beginning of consolidation because the accurate settlement prediction is possible only after many measurement periods have passed. It is judged as the reason for estimating the future settlement through the proportionality assumption of the slope which the preexistence prediction method computes from the settlement curve. In this study, ARIMA technique is introduced among time series analysis techniques and compared with preexistence prediction methods. ARIMA method was predictable without any distinction of ground conditions, and the results similar to the existing method are predicted early (final settlement).

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.121-131
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• 2024

This research explores the potential of leveraging unstructured data from construction supervision documents, which contain detailed inspection insights from independent third-party monitors of building construction processes. With the evolution of analytical methodologies, such unstructured data has been recognized as a valuable source of information, offering diverse insights. The study introduces a framework designed to assess cost performance by applying advanced analytical methods to the unstructured data found in final construction supervision reports. Specifically, key phrases were identified using text mining and social network analysis techniques, and these phrases were then analyzed through binomial logistic regression to assess cost performance. The study found that predictions of cost performance based on unstructured data from supervision documents achieved an accuracy rate of approximately 73%. The findings of this research are anticipated to serve as a foundational resource for analyzing various forms of unstructured data generated within the construction sector in future projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.349-352
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• 2003

Using EVMS can probably cause lots of confusion under the different systems and different circumstances of the construction industry between Korea and The United States, because The United States has wide experience in applying to EVMS during several decades but Korea has not. Therefore this research deals with the problem about Performance Indices in forecasting EAC(Estimate at Completion) among the problems of using EVMS. A target index of testing in this research is the Performance Indices used in the research at home and abroad in the past and those is applied to APT projects within the country with statistical method. Through this method, we can catch the tendency and the properties of the Performance Indices for applying to Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1089-1092
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• 2009

유역유출 상황 모듈은 금강수계의 강우-유출 예측 시스템에 의해 모의된 소유역 및 지점에 대한 유출량과 관측유출량 및 강우량에 대한 상호관계를 물관리를 위한 운영자의 의사결정 보조 도구로 활용하고자 한다. 유역유출 상황 모듈은 하천현황, 강우, 유출, 용수부분으로 구분하여 소유역 및 지점별 면적 강우량과 유출량에 관한 분석으로 구성되어 있다. 유역유출 상황 모듈의 기본 요소는 강우량과 유출량의 분석을 위해 사용된 지표인 강우비와 유출비로 하였다. 이들 지표는 해당월평년과 해당월에 대한 값의 비로 하였다. 강우비와 유출비의 변화에 의해 소유역 및 지점의 유출상황을 판단할 수 있으며 이에 따른 의사결정에 도움이 될것으로 판단된다. 유역유출 상황 모듈의 최종적인 목적은 현재 한국수자원공사 수자원연구원에서 생산중인 유출월보의 콘텐츠인 용수이용량, 월별유출량, 지점별 강우-유출 현황을 원활하게 생산 할 수 있도록 지원하는 것이다.