According to the system dynamics model of this study, if there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFV even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked in to the current structure. Network effect can be caused by an increasing return to scale in fuel supply sector as well as in maintenance service sector. It is also related to the fact that the reliability and awareness of consumers on new products increases with the growth of the market share of the new products. There are several possible policy options to break the 'locked in' structure of car market, such as subsidy on vehicle price (capital cost), subsidy on fuel (operating cost) and niche management policy. Combined policy options would be more effective than relying on a single policy option to increase the market share of AFV.

An important assumption of the classical linear regression model is that the disturbances appearing in the population regression function are homoskedastic; that is, they all have the same variance. If we persist in using the usual testing procedures despite heteroskedasticity, what ever conclusions we draw or inferences we make be very misleading. The contribution of this paper will be to the concrete procedure of the proper estimation when the heteroskedasticity does exist in the data, because the quality of dependent variable predictions, i.e., the estimated variance of the dependent variable, can be improved by giving consideration to the issues of regional homogeneity and/or heteroskedasticity across the research area. With respect to estimation, specific attention should be paid to the selection of the appropriate strategy in terms of the auxiliary regression model. The paper shows that by testing for heteroskedasticity, and by using robust methods in the presence of with and without heteroskedasticity, more efficient statistical inferences are provided.

The purpose of this paper is exploring changes in land use pattern when considering environmental carrying capacity. A sustainable development requires a society to define sustainability constraints, environmental carrying capacity. Environmental carrying capacity can be defined as a level of human activity a region can sustain at a desired level of quality of environment. This concept of environmental carrying capacity can be applied to land use to explore sustainable land use pattern. Since land use pattern can affect environment in an important way, exploring sustainable land use pattern within the limit of environmental carrying capacity can suggest useful implications for a sustainable regional management and planning. For this purpose, this paper built the environmental carrying capacity land use model and applied it to the Metropolitan Area, Korea. System dynamics modeling methods was used to build the model. The model developed in this paper consisted of 6sectors; population, housing, industry, land, environment, and traffic sector. The model limits its main focus on the NO2 level as an indicator of quality of environment in Metropolitan Area. Box model was translated into system dynamics model and combined to urban dynamics model to estimate NO2 level, the maximum number of population, industry structure, housing and maximum amount of land use for industrial, housing, and green space that can sustain desirable NO2 level. Metropolitan area was divided into 16 areas and the model was applied to each area. Since NO2 is flowing in and out from each area, model was built to allow this transboundering nature of air pollutants. Based on the model estimation, several policy implications for a sustainable land use pattern was discussed.

The Korean defense industry was brought up in the government policy since 1970's. The important parts of defense industrial technologies have not been developed, and usually introduced from overseas. Moreover, the development of advanced technologies was not actively stimulated or pursued, consequently shaping the current structure of the defense industry which lacks global competitiveness due to the dearth of high technologies necessary for high-technology weapons. This research analyzes the systems of the Korean defense industry through a systems thinking approach in order to understand the whole mechanism and to find ways to improve the defense industry. Finding some leverages is the main purpose of systems thinking, that yields desirable results with a little effort. The three policy leverages are: (1) the policy for timely fielding; (2) the R&D investment for development and production of domestic high-technology weapons; and (3) the policy measures for exports. The research findings will contribute to the invigorating and developing the Korean defense industry by providing policy-makers and acquisition practitioners with systematic understanding and insight into the dynamics of the defense industry for them to make and execute efficient policies taking into account the Korean overall defense industry.

Changes in material use, energy use and emissions profiles of steel industry are the result of complex interrelationships among a multitude of technological and economic drivers. To better understand and guide such changes requires that attention is paid to the time-varying consequences that technology and economic influences have on an industry's choice of inputs and its associated outputs. We briefly review the range of policy issues in our paper and assess the impact that climate-change policies may have on energy use and carbon emissions in Korea steel industry. We then present the models of Korea steel industry's energy and product flow regarding environmental regulations by using system dynamics simulation methodology(SD). Time series data and engineering information are combined to endogenously specify changes in technologies, fuel mix, and production processes within dynamic simulation model. Through a various scenario, ramifications that the convention of climate change would to steel industry is analyzed, and based on the study results, strategies against environment changes is contemplated in various perspectives to contribute to minimize the risks concerning the uncertain future and to be conducive to Korea steel industry's sustainable development.

In Korean context, the innovative cities imply new towns or urban clusters in the Non Capital Regions, all of which would accommodate the relocated Capital based public organizations. The central government-initiated innovative cities have provoked pros and cons towards their effectiveness and efficacy for the balanced territorial development. From a broader prospective, this paper firstly examines the current status quo of the innovative cities. Based on their master plans, it analyzes physical and non physical factors which would exert significant impact on the innovative cities. Secondly, it pays attention to how key factors strengthen or weaken their behavioral patterns in terms of dynamic location and implementation policies of the innovative cities. Using System dynamics approaches, it sets up couples of scenarios, categorizing between supporting and opposing arguments towards the innovative cities. Lastly, after divulging systematic structure of the innovative cities, it proposes a series of practical alternatives which would contribute to minimizing unexpected side effects or unwanted social cost in the long run. In order to guarantee reinforcing structure of the innovative cities, the paper suggests that QOL (quality of life) variables, which would require continuous investment in the social infrastructure, are pivotal in achieving original goals of the innovative cities. Otherwise, the innovative cities would not be innovative per se. In the worst case, they might be degraded into the unpopular ghost towns.

Stock market volatility largely depends on firms' value and growth opportunities. However, with the globalization of world economy, the effect of the synchronization in major countries is gaining its importance. Also, domestically, the business cycle and cash market of the country are additional factors needed to be considered. The main purpose of this research is to attest the application and usefulness of System Dynamics as a general stock market forecasting tool. Throughout this research, System Dynamics suggests a conceptual model for forecasting a KOSPI(Korea Composite Stock Price Index), taking the factors of the composite stock price indexes in traditional researches. In conclusion of this research, System Dynamics was proved to bean appropriate model for forecasting the volatility and direction of a stock market as a whole. With its timely adaptability, System Dynamic overcomes the limit of traditional statistic models.

Nowadays almost nations try to promote the competition of nation through the development of national science technology. Also Korea has been engaging in this race of through public research&development institute. But recently the commercialization of R&D products appears a poor result in the royalty of technology according weak technology transfer toward IT small and medium-sized enterprises. Even If we have been trying to find the problems and causes, as yet it is true that we don't solve clearly the problem, make a diagnosis about it. This paper analyzes the process of commercialization in public R&D research institute(ETRI: Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute) through system thinking and researches an interrelationship among government agency, public R&D research institute, and enterprise. This one can find the fact that between research fund and R&D products, transfer technology and royalty, and enterprise's operating profit and active technology transfer like adding technology development is a positive feedback loop. This positive feedback loop in the commercialization of public R&D research institute carries out very important role in examining problems in R&D product's commercialization. Also this paper looks forward to being a guide in the commercialization of public R&D research institute.

Recently, balanced scorecard is widely used in the public sector as well as in the private sector. Balanced scorecard system of a particular hospital is a very useful tool in the sense that it shows various measures for the management including the traditional financial measures. However, since it does not show the impact of action items, managers have to analyze his potential decisions. On the other hand, a system dynamics model for the management of a hospital can be used to predict future management status. In this paper, a balanced scorecard system with a system dynamics model is developed for a small sized hospital, and the feasibility and applicability of the system have been tested. It turns out the combination of the balanced scorecard and system dynamics technique can be comprised each other. The balanced scorecard system can take advantage of the data forecasted by the system dynamics model including the implementation of action items taken today. On the other hand, the key performance indicators and action items from the balanced scorecard system provide guidelines the scope and direction of the system dynamics model. The additional efforts of developing a system dynamics model are well compensated by the additional colorful functionalities of the system. This paper also covers the future research areas for the combined system to be more effectively developed.

This study focused on the analysis of the abilities and characteristics of the systems thinking for pre-service elementary teachers. Systems thinking is defined as the ability to see the world as a complex system in which one understands that everything is connected to everything else. For this study, 345 subjects carrying of the 2nd grade were selected and participated in making out the protocol developed by Sweeney and Sterman(2000) for the estimating ability of the systems thinking. As a result, the proportion of the correct answers based on the total points of view was 63%. However, the proportion of correct answer was considerably different according to the gender. The women group showed 53%, while the men group was 76%. Especially, there was a great difference in the rates of correct answer depending on their academic tracks of the humanities or natural science courses in the high school. The average rates of the correct answers for the natural science and the human science were 84 and 46%, respectively. Consequently, the ability of the systems thinking for pre-service elementary teachers is highly related with their gender and learning experience in the high school. The results of this study may contribute the practical use of the systems thinking in the area of the science education.

To measure the effect of school zone on housing cost, Linear Regression Model is widely used, and school zone is known as a key determinant of housing cost in Korea. However, when the Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) is applied with the same data, school effect on housing cost becomes statistically non-significant. It is because HLM effectively separates the effect of individual housing's attributes from the group effect. In sum, the housing cost of Kangnam, where good public schools are located, is apparently is higher than that of Kangbuk. However, the school effect on housing cost (Level 2) becomes non-significant when individual housing's attributes (Level 1) are controlled with HLM.

The Roh administration, participatory government, has pursued deconcentration policies for promoting the balanced national development since 2002. The main policy instrument of the deconcentration policy is that the transferring of public institutions from capital region to local areas. However, it has been argued that these policies have resulted in another problems of policy side-effects, for instance, decreasing the national competitiveness. This paper aims to explore the problems of side-effects of deconcentration policies based on the Systems Thinking approach. On the Systems Thinking approach basis, this paper analysed the policy side-effects placed the focus on intended feedback loops and unintended feedback loops of the deconcentration policies.