This paper deals with how system dynamics can be used as a methodology for policy critics. First of all, I discuess conditions that is required as a methodoogy of policy critics. A methodology for policy critics should be ease to be uderstood by lay people. It can be produced within limited time and have high relevancy to the policy reality. By reviewing some examples and literatures, I propose that system dynamics can meet these requirements and thus can be a promising tool for policy critics.

This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.

Perhaps, one of the typical emerging markets drawing tremendous attention from not only business professionals but also policy-makers would be the mobile Internet services. In recent years many research institutes reported their predictions on the growth of the mobile Internet services market, announcing that the market would show explosive growth and replace the wired Internet service market rapidly. Unfortunately, however, the reality we are facing at present is quite different from their expectations. The realized share of the mobile services in Korea last year has turned out remaining only about one percent of the total network service revenue. What are the reasons for the gap between the prospects and the reality? Starting from this question, this paper attempts to explore the generic pitfalls of the traditional number-crunching methods adopted thus far for the forecast of newly emerging market trends, and present an alternative by introducing systems thinking to the mobile Internet service market as an example, followed by its rationale as a new tool for forecasting and some reasoning about why traditional methods are no longer appropriate.

There are many activities to improve Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) performance and safety such as equipment improvement, redundancy and the like. Since public perception about NPP safety affects nuclear policy of site selection. Recent researches for NPP safety are including not only technical approaches but also social ones. In. this contexture, the purpose of this study is to develope cuassal loop digaram for assessment of organizational and human factors in NPP safety. Through real data from interview with NPP employees we develope causal loop diagram which can explain the relations of cause and effect among variables, and depict social system for organizational and human factors in NPP safety.

In the recent Internet environment, there are different competition patterns among competitors as it was before. As we see real world example such as Covisint in automobile industry and Exostar in aerospace industry, collaboration among competitors now takes place and industry-wide B2B marketplaces come into existence. Hence, we suggest the extended system dynamics simulation model based on Kim(2002)’s collaboration profit models in order to explain competitors’ collaboration in the e-business environment. After all, we investigate the necessity of collaboration between competitors, and show the presence of the optimal investment decision making to collaborate. We also show that the effect of collaboration is changed as varying the industry characteristics such as standardization and volatility.

To solve the policy problem between transportation and environment in trade-offs, above all, it is necessary to understand the complicated relationship between transportation and environment clearly before selecting policy alternatives. From this point of view, this study will propose the logic structure to examine the complex interaction of transportation and environment and investigate theoretically what kinds of impact would appear by the air related polices. In this research, we used ’system-dynamics’ which investigates the complexity through the flow of information and materials and the interaction of elements, which constitutes systems. System Dynamics is an approach that the variables to decide structural relationship in a system affect one another not in only-way but in inter-way and the power of influence changes time by time. This research is trying to examine the complex interaction of transportation and air pollution. For achieving this purpose, causal maps in System Dynamics approach were used. The main issues are as follows; first, to investigate the dynamic relationship between transportation and air pollution caused by exhaust emission gas. Second, to structuralize the logic of simulation to experiment the impacts of policies to relieve air pollution.

Since 1998, government-led Korean venture business boom now proceeds into the stage of market-oriented venture business growth. At such a moment, this research is to clarify the relations between the success factors of Korean venture businesses, based on domestic and foreign documentary surveys and inquiry surveys over domestic venture businesses. This research starts from the necessity to overcome the limits of the existing researches by uni-dimensional probing research into success factors of Korean venture businesses and to manifest the multi-dimensional relations between the success factors from the various viewpoints. And this research adopts System-Dynamics methodology to manifest and utilize relations among those factors, avoiding the existing metrical approaches. This research can be called a new approach to the current ecosystems of Korean venture in which whether venture businesses success in Korea is considered to depend on the list on the stock market. For this, this research implemented verification analysis through the simulations of each factor at various levels to build causality map which clarifies the causality of success factors of venture businesses through the System-Dynamics methodology and to utilize it as a way of supporting tool for decision-making of venture businesses. This research will be able to suggest the reactions depending on various internal and external situations. This research tried to manifest the causality map of each factor on the basis of inquiry surveys and documentary surveys to verify feedback among each factor by the SD methodology. This research will be a basis bolster up the still fragile substructure of venture businesses through an efficient analysis framework using the verification of SD methodology and resulting outcomes from this research.