• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.27-34
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• 2023

The registration rate of eco-friendly vehicles, such as hydrogen vehicles, is increasing rapidly, however, few first responders have experienced related accidents. Accident scenarios at hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen vehicles on a road were investigated, and the relative importance of each scenario was analyzed using AHP analysis. Leakage, jet flame, and explosion that occurred inside and outside the hydrogen refueling station were reviewed, and the hydrogen gas explosion in the compartment showed the highest importance value. In case of the hydrogen vehicle, traffic accident statistics and actual accidents were used. It was analyzed that the hydrogen vessel explosion on the road due to the failure of TPRD and the leakage in the underground parking area were difficult to respond. The developed accident scenarios are expected to be used for first responder training.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.45-50
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• 2014

Reviewing the capacity and timing of Southwest sea offshore wind farms, additional farms developing, and potential farms, we devised the long-term plan of domestic offshore wind farms development. In order to rank many wind farms, we determined evaluation indicators and weights of priority. We applied economic and preliminary factors such as wind grade, depth of water, distance from substations, farms scale, MOU signed, and feasibility studies. After deciding the ranking of wind farms by the scores, we planed domestic long-term scenarios of offshore wind farms development to meet national energy policy objectives.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.905-916
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climate change impact on watershed hydrology and flow duration in Geum River basin ($9,645.5km^2$) especially by extreme scenarios. The rainfall related extreme index, STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes) was adopted to select the future extreme scenario from the 10 GCMs with RCP 8.5 scenarios by four projection periods (Historical: 1975~2005, 2020s: 2011~2040, 2050s: 2041~2070, 2080s: 2071~2100). As a result, the 5 scenarios of wet (CESM1-BGC and HadGEM2-ES), normal (MPI-ESM-MR), and dry (INM-CM4 and FGOALS-s2) were selected and applied to SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The wet scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2080s period. The 2080s evapotranspiration (ET) of wet scenarios varied from -3.2 to +3.1 mm, the 2080s total runoff (TR) varied from +5.5 to +128.4 mm. The dry scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2020s period. The 2020s ET for dry scenarios varied from -16.8 to -13.3 mm and the TR varied from -264.0 to -132.3 mm respectively. For the flow duration change, the CFR (coefficient of flow regime, Q10/Q355) was altered from +4.2 to +10.5 for 2080s wet scenarios and from +1.7 to +2.6 for 2020s dry scenarios. As a result of the flow duration analysis according to the change of the hydrological factors of the Geum River basin applying the extreme climate change scenario, INM-CM4 showed suitable scenario to show extreme dry condition and FGOALS-s2 showed suitable scenario for the analysis of the drought condition with large flow duration variability. HadGEM2-ES was evaluated as a scenario that can be used for maximum flow analysis because the flow duration variability was small and CESM1-BGC was evaluated as a scenario that can be applied to the case of extreme flood analysis with large flow duration variability.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.47-56
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• 2008

With rapid growing of the Northeastern Asia, the interest for the connection of Infrastructure that was behind of interesting until now is getting larger. In a line of same connection, UN-ESCAP are forwarding transcontinental railway project, asian highway project et al.. And this study aimed at analysis on the effect that extended to a space by Korea-Japan undersea tunnel project. In aspect of a national land balanced-development to solve various problems such as overcrowding in capital region, unbalanced state by regions, weak exchange between South and North Korea, and weakness of national land basis to prepare for unification et al., this study consulted the economic potentiality model as a analysis method to examine an effect. In this analysis, I used 24 scenarios including all cases by combination of 3 scenarios for Korea-Japan undersea tunnel, 4 scenarios for transportation modes in the section of undersea tunnel, and 2 scenarios for adjacency infrastructure. Transportation modes in the section of undersea tunnel are railway, car-train, mixing way of railway and car-train, and mixing way of road and railway. Adjacency infrastructure applied railway and road. In all scenarios, Korea showed higher growth potentiality than Japan. Also, proposal plan C route relatively showed better in national land balanced-development than other proposal plans. The growth potentiality relatively appeared higher by buildup of a connection together with non-capital regions from the construction of Korea-Japan undersea tunnel. In aspect of Northeastern Asia, it resulted in a increasing of trade and chance of network formation in the region of Asia through infrastructure connection. But, in considering passenger and various factors that extended to the economic growth, this analysis have some limitation. Therefore, I hope that deep studies will continuously perform with various factors.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.653-666
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• 2011

The purposes of this study are to suggest flood vulnerability assessment method on climate change with evaluation of this method over the 5 river basins and to present the uncertainty range of assessment using multi-model ensemble scenarios. In this study, the data related to past historical flood events were collected and flood vulnerability index was calculated. The vulnerability assessment were also performed under current climate system. For future climate change scenario, the 39 climate scenarios are obtained from 3 different emission scenarios and 13 GCMs provided by IPCC DDC and 312 hydrology scenarios from 3 hydrological models and 2~3 potential evapotranspiration computation methods for the climate scenarios. Finally, the spatial and temporal changes of flood vulnerability and the range of uncertainty were performed for future S1 (2010~2039), S2 (2040~2069), S3 (2070~2099) period compared to reference S0 (1971~2000) period. The results of this study shows that vulnerable region's were Han and Sumjin, Youngsan river basins under current climate system. Considering the climate scenarios, variability in Nakdong, Gum and Han river basins are large, but Sumjin river basin had little variability due to low basic-stream ability to adaptation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.207-232
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• 2011

The development of reliable earthquake mitigation plans and seismic risk management procedures can only be based on the establishment of comprehensive earthquake hazard and loss scenarios. Two cities, Grevena (Greece) and D$\ddot{u}$zce (Turkey), were used as case studies in order to apply a comprehensive methodology for the vulnerability and loss assessment of lifelines. The methodology has the following distinctive phases: detailed inventory, identification of the typology of each component and system, evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard, geotechnical zonation, ground response analysis and estimation of the spatial distribution of seismic motion for different seismic scenarios, vulnerability analysis of the exposed elements at risk. Estimating adequate earthquake scenarios for different mean return periods, and selecting appropriate vulnerability functions, expected damages of the water and waste water systems in D$\ddot{u}$zce and of the roadway network and waste water system of Grevena are estimated and discussed; comparisons with observed earthquake damages are also made in the case of D$\ddot{u}$zce, proving the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed methodology. The results of the present study constitute a sound basis for the development of efficient loss scenarios for lifelines and infrastructure facilities in seismic prone areas. The first part of this paper, concerning the estimation of the seismic ground motions, has been utilized in the companion paper by Kappos et al. (2010) in the same journal.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.59-76
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• 2019

This study aims to develop urban scenarios for future cities and validate the future city scenarios using a Delphi method. The scenarios of future city was derived from urban structure, land use, transportation, and urban infrastructure and development using big data analysis, environmental scanning techniques, and literature review. The Delphi survey interviewed 24 erudite scholars and experts across 6 nations including Korea, USA, UK, Japan, China, Australia and India. The Delphi survey structure was designed to test future city scenarios, verified by the 5-point Likert scale. The survey also asked the timing of each scenario likely happens by the three terms of near-future, mid-future and far-future. Results of the Delphi survey reveal the following points. Firstly, for the future urban structure it is anticipated that urban concentration continues and higher density living in global mega cities near future. In the mid-future small and medium size cities may decrease. Secondly, the land use pattern in the near-future is expected of increasing space sharing and mixed or layered vertical land-use. In addition underground space is likely to be extended in the mid-future. Thirdly, in the near-future, transport and infrastructure was expected to show ICT embedded integration platform and public and private smart transport. Finally, the result of Delphi survey shows that TOD (Transit Oriented Development) becomes a development norm and more emphasis on energy and environment fields.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.23-44
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• 2009

U-Services are inevitably essential for the realization of u-Cities. Most local governments in Korea have expressed much interest in introducing u-Cites and related u-Services. Since researchers anticipate that developing u-Cities will produce economic effects, the Korea government has support local governments to develop u-Cities and necessary u-Services. However, the technology issues have been dominiated in the field of U-City services and most of the U-City services do not reflects all the complicated and pluralistic sides of environment, which are caused by future uncertainties in developing u-Cites. For the purpose of addressing the above uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible scenarios for U-City services through a scenario planning approach. A focus group interview and survey with professionals in the field of planning u-Cities was performed to identify these uncertainties. Then, in order to investigate the validity of the scenario planning methodology, the u-Service "u-Water purity monitoring" is adopted. After considering the relevant issues, we developed two possible scenarios: a mutual linkage service among u-Service related organization and a cooperating and coordinating service among local governments. On the basis of these scenarios, the strategies for potential U-City services are formulated. Various participants in developing U -City services are encouraged to use the scenarios as the foundation of predicting future features of u-Cities and developing the framework of the U-City service scenarios effectively.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.107-114
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• 2015

This study focuses on assessing risks which might occur in operation stage of CAES storage cavern and analyzing fire scenarios for the risk that have been assessed with highest risk level. Risks in operation stage were categorized into upper risk group and lower risk group. Components of upper risk group are technical risk, facility risk and natural disaster risk. Lower risk group is composed of 11 sub-risks. 20 experts were chosen to survey questionnaires. ANP model was applied to analyze the relative importance of 11 sub-risks. Results of risk analysis were compared with risk criterion to set risk priorities, and the highest risk was determined to be 'occurrence of the fire within the management opening'. Three fire scenarios were developed for the highest risk level and FDS (Fire dynamics Simulator) was used to analyze these scenarios. No. 3 scenario which air blows from tunnel into outside atmosphere represented that a rate of smoke spread was the fastest among three fire scenarios and a smoke descended most quickly below the limit line of breathing. Thus, No. 3 scenario turned out to be the most unfavorable condition when operating staffs were evacuated from access tunnel.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.