• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2010

In consumption environment, the time interval is frequently found between purchase and consumption. The objective of this study is to determine how consumers' purchase intentions can be influenced by this type of temporal distance. Construal level theory holds that the 'distant future situation' tend to be construed on a higher level than the 'near future situation.' Accordingly, when considering the consumption in the near future, consumers tend to be more likely to focus on the feasibility of the alternatives than on desirability. Conversely, when considering the consumption in the distant future, they are more likely to focus on the desirability of the alternatives than on feasibility. Along with the previous literature, the current study investigates the effects of temporal distance between purchase and consumption on consumer choice. Moreover, we aim to determine under which conditions these effects pertain. To test our hypotheses, we conducted a 2(temporal distance:near future vs. distant future) x 2(alternative type:high desirability, low feasibility vs. low desirability, high feasibility) x 3(additional offering:no gift, free coffee coupon, free mini book) between subjects design. The results show that the main effects of temporal distance and additional offering are significant. The 2 way interaction between temporal distance and additional offerings is also significant. Specifically, the purchase intention differentiation from additional offering tends to be larger at shorter temporal distances (near future) than at long ones (distant future).

• 공학교육연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.56-65
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• 2018

With rapid advance of technologies including information and communication technologies, jobs are evolving faster than ever. Architectural engineering is no exception in this regard, and the green architectural engineering is emerging fast as a promising new field. In this study, a Delphi study of expert architectural engineers are conducted to find out (1) near future prospects of the field, (2) near future emerging jobs, (3) competencies needed for these jobs, and (4) educational content necessary to build these competencies with regards to the green architectural engineering. Initial Delphi survey consisting of open-ended questions in the above four areas were conducted and came out with 65 items after duplicate removal and semantic refinements. Further refinements via second and third wave of Delphi results into 40 items that the 13 architectural engineering experts may largely agree upon as future prospects with regards to the green architectural engineering. Findings indicate that it is expected that the demand for green architectural engineering and needs for automatic energy control system increase. Also, collaborations with other fields is becoming more and more important in green architectural engineering. The professional work management skills such as knowledge convergence, problem solving, collaboration skills, and creativity linking components from various related areas seem to also be on the increasing need. Near future ready critical skills are found to be the building environment control techniques (thermal, light, sound, and air), the data processing techniques like data mining, energy monitoring, and the control and utilization of environmental analysis software. Experts also agree on new curriculum for green building architecture to be developed with more of converging subjects across disciplines for future ready professional skills and experiences. Major topics to be covered in the near future includes building environment studies, building energy management, energy reduction systems, indoor air quality, global environment and natural phenomena, and machinery and electrical facility. Architectural engineering community should be concerned with building up the competencies identified in this Delphi preparing for fast advancing future.

• 지역연구
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.59-76
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• 2019

본 연구의 목적은 미래도시의 모습을 시나리오로 만들고, 델파이 분석을 통해 미래도시 변화의 시기와 실현 가능성을 분석하는 것이다. 미래도시 시나리오는 빅데이터 분석과 환경스캐닝 기법, 문헌연구를 통해 도시구조, 토지 이용, 교통 및 인프라, 도시개발로 도출되었다. 델파이는 우리나라와 미국, 영국, 호주, 일본, 중국, 인도 등 6개국 24명의 전문가를 통해 진행되었다. 델파이 구조는 시나리오의 실현 가능성을 리커트 5점 척도로 전망할 수 있도록 구성하였으며, 실현 시기를 근미래(10년 이하), 중미래(10~20년), 먼미래(20년 이상)로 설정하였다. 연구의 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 도시구조는 단기적으로 수위 및 광역 대도시(Global and Mega-City)를 중심으로 집중되며, 중장기적으로 지방 중소도시는 쇠퇴할 것으로 전망되었다. 둘째, 토지 이용은 근미래에 수직적, 수평적으로 혼합될 것이며, 공유 공간이 증가될 것으로 예측되었다. 셋째, 교통 및 인프라는 ICT 기반의 통합 플랫폼을 통한 도시관리가 진행되며, 스마트 기술을 통해 공공 및 개인(민간) 교통이 활성화될 것으로 분석되었다. 넷째, 도시개발은 교통 결절지(TOD) 중심의 개발이 활성화될 것이며, 에너지 및 환경 분야에 중점을 둘 것으로 전망되었다.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.97-121
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• 2015

In this research, we examine whether and why temporal distance influences evaluations of two different types of brand extensions: concept-based extensions, defined as extensions primarily based on the importance or relevance of brand concepts to extension products; and similarity-based extensions, defined as extensions primarily based on the amount of feature similarity at the product-category level. In Study 1, we test the hypothesis that concept-based extensions are evaluated more favorably when they are framed to launch in the distant rather than in the near future, whereas similaritybased extensions are evaluated more favorably when they are framed to launch in the near rather than in the distant future. In Study 2, we confirm that this time-dependent differential evaluation is driven by the difference in construal level between the bases of the two types of extensions - i.e., brand-concept consistency and product-category feature similarity. As such, we find that conceptbased extensions are evaluated more favorably under the abstract than concrete mindset, whereas similarity-based extensions are evaluated more favorably under the concrete than abstract mindset. In Study 3, we extend to the case for a broad brand (i.e., brands that market products across multiple categories), finding that making accessible a specific product category of a broad parent brand influences evaluations of near-future, but not distant-future, brand extensions. Combined together, our findings suggest that temporal distance influences brand extension evaluation through its effect on the importance placed on brand concepts and feature similarity. That is, consumers rely on different bases to evaluate brand extensions, depending on their perception of when the extensions take place and on under what mindset they are placed. This research makes theoretical contributions to the brand extension research by identifying one important determinant to brand extension evaluation and also uncovering its underlying dynamics. It also contributes to expanding the scope of the construal level theory by putting forth a novel interpretation of two bases of perceived fit in terms of construal level. Marketers who are about to launch and advertise brand extensions may benefit by considering temporal-distance information in determining what content to deliver about extensions in their communication efforts. Conceptual relation of a parent brand to extensions needs to be emphasized in the distant future, whereas feature similarity should be highlighted in the near future.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.100.1-100.1
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• 2011

Everybody wants to see the future, but nobody does for sure. Reliably forecasting the solar activity in the near future looks like an easy task, but in fact still remains one of difficult problems in the solar-terrestrial research. We have sought for good univariate methods that can predict future smoothed sunspot numbers reasonably well based on past smoothed sunspot number data only. Here we consider a specific method we call principal component-and-autoregression (PCAR) method. The variation of sunspot number during a period of finite duration (past) before an epoch (present) is modeled by a linear combination of a small number of dominant principal components, and this model is extended to the period (future) beyond the epoch using the autoregressive model of finite order. From the application of this method, we find that the $24^{th}$ solar maximum is likely to occur near the end of the year 2013 (and there is a possibility that it occurs earlier near the start of 2013), and to have a peak sunspot number of about 86, indicating that the activity of the $24^{th}$ cycle will be weaker than the average. We will discuss how much this estimate is reliable.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2004년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.439-446
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• 2004

In this study, the characteristic of the Near Fault Ground Motion which was not considered at the seismic design in our country and how the Near Fault Ground Motion affects the cable-stayed bridge which have long period is analyzed through the dynamic response analysis. So, the object of this study is following that it makes the data which can be utilized as the seismic safety evaluation in case of the cable-stayed bridge taken the near fault in the future.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.510-513
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• 2018

최근 전자파 적합성(EMC: electromagnetic compatibility)의 중요성이 매우 높아짐에 따라 칩 수준에서의 전자파 간섭(EMI: electromagnetic interference) 측정이 자주 요구되고 있다. IEC 61967 및 IEC 62508에서 규정된 근거리 전자장 스캐닝(NFS: near-field scanning) 시스템은 칩 레벨에서의 전자파 간섭을 분석하는 대표적인 방법이다. 칩이 점점 고속화되면서 근거리 전자장 스캐닝 시스템의 측정 주파수는 광대역화되어야 하지만 근거리 전자장 탐침(NFP: near-field probe)의 신호 대 잡음 비(SNR: signal-to-noise ratio)가 저하된다는 문제가 있다. 본 논문에서는 근거리 전자장 스캐닝 시스템에서 광대역 특성을 가지면서도 잡음 대 성능 비를 향상시키는 기술에 대해 살펴본다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권
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• pp.5-12
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• 2001

We berlin with a brief review of some important advances made in statistical theory over the last decade. The choice of topics is decidedly influenced by personal interests. Based on this review, we then propose some possible scenarios about the future of statistics.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제48권10호
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• pp.817-830
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오의 미래 전망 불확실성 요소를 감안한 근 미래(2011~2040년) 극치 강수전망과 빈도분석을 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) 9개 GCMs (General Circulation Models)를 사용하여 수행하였다. 또한, 기후자료의 유역규모 비모수적 상세화 및 편이보정 기법을 적용하여, 다중 모델 앙상블(MME)을 통한 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과, RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오 모두 한반도 근 미래 극치 강수특성인자의 연간 변동성과 불확실성이 커지는 것으로 분석되었으며, 강우빈도해석 결과 2040년까지 50년과 100년 빈도 확률강수량이 최대 4.2~10.9% 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구 결과는 다중모델 앙상블 GCMs의 불확실성을 고려한 국가수자원 장기종합개발계획과 기후변화 적응대책 마련 등 기후변화 방재관련 정책결정 및 의사결정 지원 자료로 활용이 가능할 것이다.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.165-179
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• 2019

This study aims to examine the difference in the rurality of rural villages near a metropolitan city. It investigated the general status and economic activities of the two villages near Ulsan Metropolitan City to find out what the differences are and to diagnose the reasons for such differences and their impact on future changes in the villages. Through this survey analysis, it found that the two villages have been continuously experiencing a decrease in population over the last 10 years, despite being near large cities. In addition, it also identified the characteristics of the agricultural and livestock industries taking center stage in economic activities. In other words, although the cases are rural villages near a big city, it was shown that the village near a provincial city is basically based on agricultural characteristics. Regarding future prospects, on the one hand, in the case of Dagae-ri, the villagers expect that the current livestock industry-oriented activities may continue to develop. On the other hand, in the case of Shinhwa-ri, the residents think that the rural characteristics may be rapidly lost and urbanized. Based on these findings, this study suggests that rural policies for villages near large cities also need to be applied in a discriminatory manner, taking into account the basis on which economic activities in the villages are developed.