Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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The Uncertainty of Extreme Rainfall in the Near Future and its Frequency Analysis over the Korean Peninsula using CMIP5 GCMs

CMIP5 GCMs의 근 미래 한반도 극치강수 불확실성 전망 및 빈도분석

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Cho, Jaepil (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center)
  • 윤선권 (APEC 기후센터 연구본부 기후변화연구팀) ;
  • 조재필 (APEC 기후센터 연구본부 기후변화연구팀)
  • 투고 : 2015.02.15
  • 심사 : 2015.08.27
  • 발행 : 2015.10.31
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초록

This study performed prediction of extreme rainfall uncertainty and its frequency analysis based on climate change scenarios by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the selected nine-General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the near future (2011-2040) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). We analysed uncertainty of scenarios by multiple model ensemble (MME) technique using non-parametric quantile mapping method and bias correction method in the basin scale of the KP. During the near future, the extreme rainfall shows a significant gradually increasing tendency with the annual variability and uncertainty of extreme ainfall in the RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition to the probability rainfall frequency (such as 50 and 100-year return periods) has increased by 4.2% to 10.9% during the near future in 2040. Therefore, in the longer-term water resources master plan, based on the various climate change scenarios (such as CMIP5 GCMs) and its uncertainty can be considered for utilizing of the support tool for decision-makers in water-related disasters management.

본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오의 미래 전망 불확실성 요소를 감안한 근 미래(2011~2040년) 극치 강수전망과 빈도분석을 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) 9개 GCMs (General Circulation Models)를 사용하여 수행하였다. 또한, 기후자료의 유역규모 비모수적 상세화 및 편이보정 기법을 적용하여, 다중 모델 앙상블(MME)을 통한 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과, RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오 모두 한반도 근 미래 극치 강수특성인자의 연간 변동성과 불확실성이 커지는 것으로 분석되었으며, 강우빈도해석 결과 2040년까지 50년과 100년 빈도 확률강수량이 최대 4.2~10.9% 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구 결과는 다중모델 앙상블 GCMs의 불확실성을 고려한 국가수자원 장기종합개발계획과 기후변화 적응대책 마련 등 기후변화 방재관련 정책결정 및 의사결정 지원 자료로 활용이 가능할 것이다.

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피인용 문헌

  1. Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis of Future Extreme Rainfall using CMIP5 GCMs over the Korean Peninsula vol.18, pp.3, 2018, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.3.73