• Title/Summary/Keyword: marital fertility rate

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Forecast and identifying factors on a double dip fertility rate for Korea (더블딥 출산율 요인 규명과 향후 추이)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.463-483
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    • 2019
  • Since 2000, Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been different from that of Japan, Germany, and France where irreversible constants do not change easily in the fertility rate increasing or decreasing phase. It also showed a gradual increase from the minimum fertility level 1.08 in 2005 to 1.23 in 2015, which dropped to 1.17 in 2016, to 1.05 in 2017 and to 0.98 in 2018. This is similar to a double dip in the economic status of a recession. This paper investigates such a TFR increase and decrease factor that predicts the number of births affecting TFR, examines trends in the proportion of married and marital fertility rate broken down by TFR decomposition method. We also examined how these changes affect the change in TFR. According to the results, the number of births is estimated to be between 320 and 330 thousand in 2018, 300 thousand in 2020, 230 and 240 thousand in 2025. The proportion of married is steadily decreasing from 1981 to 2025, and the marital fertility rate is predicted to decline until 2002, then increase from 2003 to 2016 and decrease from 2017 to 2025. Finally, the trend of TFR in terms of number of births, TFR decomposition and statistical model is expected to show 0.98 in 2018, 0.93 to 1.11 in 2020 and 0.76 to 1.08 in 2025.

Developmental Tasks During the Childrearing Stage and Second Birth Intentions among Chinese Married Women: Parenting Adaptation, Division of Childcare, and Marital Adjustment (중국 기혼여성의 자녀양육기 발달과업과 둘째 출산의향: 부모역할 적응, 양육분담, 부부적응을 중심으로)

  • Yu, Kunping;Lee, Jaerim
    • Human Ecology Research
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.147-162
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    • 2022
  • Although the globally known one-child policy in China was abolished in 2016, the overall fertility rate in the country declined to 1.3 in 2020. In this study, we examined whether the achievement of major developmental tasks during the childrearing stage was associated with intentions to have a second child among Chinese married women. Based on family development theory, we included parenting adaptation, division of childcare responsibilities with the partner, and marital adjustment as key developmental tasks during the childrearing stage. The participants of this study were 315 married Chinese women who lived with a spouse and a child who had not yet entered elementary school. Data were collected through an online survey in February and March 2021. A multiple regression analysis of the data revealed that a lower level of economic parenting stress, a higher level of fairness in dividing childcare responsibilities with the partner, and a more positive change in their marital relationship after having the first child were associated with greater intentions to have a second child.

Fertility, Mortality, and Population Growth in 18th and 19th Century Korea: Evidence from Genealogies (조선후기의 출산력, 사망력 및 인구증가: 네 족보에 나타난 1700$\sim$1899년간 생몰 기록을 이용한 연구)

  • Cha, Myung-Soo
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.113-137
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    • 2009
  • This article uses genealogical information to estimate fertility, mortality, and population growth in Korea during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Upper class males' probability of dying as estimated from genealogies was converted into that for the whole male population drawing upon information on colonial mortality and model life tables, which indicated male life expectancy at birth was 23 years. Age-specific marital fertility rates for upper class females as calculated from genealogies were combined with estimates of age at first marriage and information on colonial fertility to derive age-specific fertility rate for the whole female population, which implied a total fertility rate of 6.81. Finally, the estimated indices of mortality and fertility were inserted into equations describing stable populations to find that the Korean population grew 0.62% p.a. during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.

Factors associated with Lowest Low Fertility and Strategies for the Policy of Family-friendly Environments for Fertility Increase in Busan Metropolitan City (부산광역시 초저출산의 가족학적 요인 및 가족친화환경 조성을 위한 정책적 제안)

  • Yoon, Gyung-Ja
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.137-163
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    • 2010
  • This study examines how individual, familial, and social factors are associated with persistent very low fertility in Busan Metropolitan City and contemplates family-friendly environments and social strategies for fertility increase. Fertility decline in Busan Metropolitan City recorded the lowest birth rate nationwide recent years among metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea. Birthrates are low partly because of multiple factors such as high age at childbearing and at marriage, decline in marriage, high divorce rate, the phenomena of marriage avoidance among unmarried women, traditional gender role attitude of men, low domestic work participation of husbands among dual career couples, low marital satisfaction and family life satisfaction, abortion, and more broader attiributes such as family policy, availability of childcare, education expenses, and family-friendlyness of a society. In addition, women of dual career couples in Busan strained from domestic work overload under traditional norms of gender role, and marital satisfaction recorded below average nationwide along with espeacially low marital satisfaction of wives compared to that of husbands. Major aspects of implications and considerations for higher birth rate and family friendly policy in Busan are discussed.

Recent Fertility and its Policy Implications (최근의 출산력과 정책적 함의)

  • Park, Kyung-Ae
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.137-156
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    • 2007
  • Total fertility rate (TFR) increased from the lowest 1.08 in 2005 to 1.13 in 2006, and a debate is made whether the increase is temporary or continuous as a result of various pro-natal policies. This study intends to explore policy implications revealed in recent fertility change using vital statistics. For this purpose, tempo-adjusted fertility rate by birth order, fertility rate by age of mother and birth order, age-specific fertility for married, and age-specific divorce rate for married are analyzed. The increase of TFR and births for 2006 is largely due to increase of first births at early thirties with slowdown of delayed first marriage and first child birth. The increase of female population (the third wave effect of baby boom) and first marriages of late twenties in 2006 and 2007 would lead to increase of fertility during 2007-2008. But further increase is uncertain because of the decrease trend of marital fertility and increase trend of never-married for twenties. TFRs for first and second births reduced rapidly, while TFRs for third and above births showed no changes, and second births were largely affected by tempo adjustment of fertility. Thus, constructing social environment for first and second births is more effective and necessary than encouraging third births. In addition, social responsibility of child care, child-women health issues due to delayed births, and the need for multi-cultural family support system are discussed.

Trends and Socio-Economic Factors Impacting on Married Couples' Childlessness Among Korean Provinces : 1990~2010 (무자녀율 변화 추세 및 변화에 영향을 미치는 사회·경제적 요인에 관한 연구: 1990~2010)

  • Kim, Han-Gon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.959-972
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to describe childlessness trends and examine the factors impacting on the childlessness of married couples among Korean provinces between 1990 and 2010. The results are as follows: There have been differences in childlessness rates among provinces and over time as well. Furthermore, social development, transportation, women's status, and economic development have statistically significant positive impacts on ASMCR. It turns out that age-specific marital childlessness rate is rather accurate measurement than general marital childlessness rate in terms of exploring the factors influencing on the childlessness among Korean provinces. Korea's government policy to aid the married couples who are suffering from in-fecundity is strongly recommended to maintain its policy and extend its subjects in order to increase married couples' fertility rate. Furthermore, campaigns to change married couples' recognition and attitudes from unfavorable against childbearing to favorable toward childbearing so that the married couples would be willing to have childbearing in terms of fertility rate increase.

Effects of Married Women's Couple Equality on the Intent to Additional Childbirth (기혼 여성의 부부 평등성이 추가 출산 의향에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Dan-Bi;Nam, Jin-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.379-389
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed 10,352 married women to find the correlation between marital equality felt by married women and additional childbirth intentions. Frequency analysis and chi-square test analysis were performed to analyze the general characteristics of the investigator, and studies were conducted through binary logistic regression analysis and interaction analysis to analyze the relevance between each variable and additional childbirth. As a result, the 4-point group based on the 0-point group that lowest marital equality had 2.01 times higher willingness to additional birth. And, the 3-point group and the 2-point group were 1.46 times and 1.41 times higher than 0-point group with marital equality and additional childbirth intentions. In addition, intention of additional childbirth was increased when the higher the number of children, if they own a house, and if wives are non-regular or unemployed. This study analyzed the relationship between married women's intention to give birth additionally, focusing on marital equality. It is suggested that specific and reasonable policies at the macro level are required to improve the fertility rate.

The Influence of Value of Children, Marital Intimacy, Perception of Childbirth, Co-parenting on Parental Satisfaction in Women with a Child (한 자녀를 둔 어머니의 자녀가치와 부부친밀감, 분만경험지각, 부부공동양육이 부모역할만족도에 미치는 영향)

  • KIM, Moon-Jeong
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.1329-1338
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    • 2016
  • South Korea's total fertility rate dropped to 1.2 in 2014, which was far below the population replacement level of 2.07. Parental satisfaction of mothers contribute to secondary childbirth intention as well as child outcome. This study was to identify the factors affecting parental satisfaction particularly in mothers with one child. The survey conducted in five daycare centers in B city from September to October in 2015. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, t-tests, ANOVA, Pearson's correlation coefficient and stepwise multiple regression analyses using SPSS/Win 21 software. 42.7% of variance in parental satisfaction was accounted for by co-parenting(t=5.566, p<.001), value of children(t=3.575, p=.001), and perception of childbirth(t=2.906, p=.005). The explain power was significant(F=21.581, p<.001). This study revealed that the perception of childbirth last long enough to affect mothers of children up to the age of 6. Midwifes and nurses working with laboring women should try to give them positive experience of delivery.

AGE AT MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY OF WOMEN IN THREE SELECTED AREAS IN KOREA, 1970 (한국 3개 지역의 결혼, 결혼년령 및 출산력에 관한 연구)

  • 김모임
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1973
  • This study is designed to meet the following objectives: (1) To study attitude and behavior regarding marriage and age at marriage, (2) To learn correlates of age at marriage and to examine their relations, (3) To measure relative importance of the correlates of age at marriage, and (4) To study relations of age at marriage and family planning practice to fertility and their relative importance as correlates of fertility. The data are obtained by an independent cross-sectional survey in three study areas purposively selected to represent metropolitan. semihuman. rural population. The study population is confined to women age 17-50 as of survey. The overall response rate is 90%. Reliability of data is measured by . individual and aggregate inconsistency based upon a 15% subsample of the original interviews. The individual inconsistency (31%) is found to be high compared to the aggregate inconsistency (6%) for all 85 variables. However, the magnitude of differences between means is small, and the mean absolute shifts and proportional shifts are also small on the whole. In a word respondents did not change their answers too extremely or radically. The study populations of each study area are compared on some basic characteristics. It is found that the three study populations have more dissimilarities than similarities. The findings on seven different attitudinal positions of women toward marriage indicate that there have been tremendous changes in all study areas Iron "traditional" attitudes which have been prevalent for a long time in Korean society to "liberalized" or "modernized" attitudes. An apparent tendency is that women generally take a position of a "golden mean" attitude by not preferring either extreme of marriage attitudes. Nevertheless, the young, single, educated, and urbanite appears more "liberalized. " There has been some increase in ideal age at marriage from 1958 to 1970 for both sexes. No age group, marital status, or study area differentials in ideal age at marriage are found, the average ideal age at marriage in every sub-group being 24-25. Awareness of existing legal marriageable ages is low; only 4.4% are aware that "with parental permission: minimum age for males is 18 years and for females 16 years,"and only 3.7% are aware that "without parental permission: 27 years for males and 23 years for females." People in Korra tend to marry spouses who are in various social ways like themselves: the similarities include (a) education, occupational status of father, (c) economic status, (d) usual residence before marriage, and (e) religion. Both singulars and actual mean ages at marriage in this study confirm the trend of rising age at marriage previously established by other independent studies. The urban-rural differential in age at marriage is observed, but the differential narrows down gradually from 1935 to 1970. All socio-economic, demographic, and other variables pertaining to wife before and at first marriage, excluding (a) religion, (b) father′s of occupation, and (c) as: of menarche, are correlated with respondent's age at first marriage, whereas only three variables out of all socio-economic variables relating to husband before and at wife′s first marriage, viz., (a) education, (b) usual residence, and (c) economic level of his old home, are correlated with respondent′s age at marriage. Among socio-economic and modernity variables related to either husband or wife at the time of survey, only education and duration of residence are correlated with wife′s age at first marriage. Among the correlates of respondent′age at first marriage, education is in general the most important variable. However, it is found that wife′s education is more important than husband′s. The combined effects or the correlates studied explain no more than about 40% of variance for any of the selected groups of variables. Points which might counteract the effects of late marriage on fertility are not serious in Korea. For each of the correlates of the three fertility indices chosen for this study. namely, (a) number of living children, (b) number of live births, and (c) number of pregnancies, age at marriage is the major contributor to the variance in all age groups except the age group of 20-29 in which the index of family planning practice is the major contributor. The proportion of variability in fertility indices accounted for by the correlates is never more than 40% of the total variance in any age group. Based upon the findings from this study, it could be concluded that in the foreseeable future (a) celibate group will no! be increased to a point that would slow down population growth rate in Korea, (b) age at marriage will not increase continually, (c) although education stands out as the major contributing variable which independently explains the variation in age at marriage, it seems probable that education may not be the major variable in the near future, and (d) despite the fact found by this study that age at marriages has been the major contributor to the variance of each of the fertility indices used, family planning practice will play a more important role in the reduction of fertility in the Korean society. Therefore, factors interrupting practice of family planning must be eliminated and family planning program should be strengthened if further fertility reduction is needed.

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The Marriage Stewardship and the Role and Status of Social Development Network in Singapore (결혼 책임주의와 싱가포르 Social Development Network의 역할과 위상)

  • Kim, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.143-149
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    • 2018
  • This paper focuses on how Singapore has adopted the 'Marriage Promotion Policy' for resolving the low birthrate and how it has been using the Social Development Network (SDN) to cope with the problem of low fertility. Social Development Network is an organization that shows Singapore's national stewardship to marriage, and has developed from the beginning to the social phenomenon of increasing number of highly educated women and decreasing fertility. The predecessor of Social Development Network is 'Social Development Unit' (SDU), absorbed the 'Social Development Service' (SDS) that was launched later, and reborn as Social Development Network in 2009. At its inception, Social Development Network has been recruiting and organizing its own memberships without the help of commercial marriage agencies, and since 2006 has been dedicated to delegating dating and matchmaking services to private companies and supporting projects. The purpose of this paper using literature analysis is to analyze the status and role of Social Development Network from the theoretical point of view of marital stewardship to the present, and to suggest meaningful implications for Korea which has the same social experience.