• Title/Summary/Keyword: macro trend

Search Result 77, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

The Relationship between Divorce Rates and Socioeconomic and Demographical Factors (사회경제, 인구학적 요인과 이혼율과의 관계)

  • Chung, Hyun-Sook
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-67
    • /
    • 2008
  • The study analyzes divorce rates in Korea and makes suggestions for the future research of divorce rates. Based on the data from Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS) of the National Statistics Organization, trends for divorce rates change and the relations between divorce rates and macro environmental factors are analyzed. Macro environmental factors include socioeconomic factors such as, Korean War, Vietnam War, oil shock, IMP economic crisis and gross national income (GNI), whereas demographical factors include population structure, rates of female labor participation, and geographical location. The principle characteristics of divorce rates are as follows: 1) the Crude divorce rates (CDR) and the number of divorced had been increased from 1970 to 2004, then the trend changed to a decrease; 2) the slope of the change were the highest during 1998 to 2004 after the IMP economic crisis. The relations between socioeconomic factors are as follows: 1) during the war there was a small increase of CDR for a short period of time; 2) the economic crisis of the nation tend to increase the CDR, while the IMP economic crisis had a strong impact on an increase of CDR because of the interaction effect among the population structure, women's sex role changes as well as the level of standard of living. The increase in CDR from 1990 to 2000 can be explained partly by the population of baby Boomers passing through their marriage and divorce process. The number of population residing in the rural area and the middle class households, and the mobility of population also had an impact on the divorce rates changes. The recommendations for the future research were as follows: 1) the need to develop new divorce statistics that are based on a marriage cohort or a birth cohort because family behavior is a mixture of personal, social and political responses, and because CDR is not an accurate measure of divorce rate since it was influenced by population structure; 2) the need to include micro personal factors as well as macro social factors in a model to find an interaction effect between those variables.

Price Monitoring Automation with Marketing Forecasting Methods

  • Oksana Penkova;Oleksandr Zakharchuk;Ivan Blahun;Alina Berher;Veronika Nechytailo;Andrii Kharenko
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.23 no.9
    • /
    • pp.37-46
    • /
    • 2023
  • The main aim of the article is to solve the problem of automating price monitoring using marketing forecasting methods and Excel functionality under martial law. The study used the method of algorithms, trend analysis, correlation and regression analysis, ANOVA, extrapolation, index method, etc. The importance of monitoring consumer price developments in market pricing at the macro and micro levels is proved. The introduction of a Dummy variable to account for the influence of martial law in market pricing is proposed, both in linear multiple regression modelling and in forecasting the components of the Consumer Price Index. Experimentally, the high reliability of forecasting based on a five-factor linear regression model with a Dummy variable was proved in comparison with a linear trend equation and a four-factor linear regression model. Pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios were developed for forecasting the Consumer Price Index for the situation of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war until the end of 2023 and separately until the end of 2024.

Assessment of Power Retail Cost by Penetration scenarios of Decentralized Generation in Korean Power System (우리나라 전력계통에서 분산형전원의 구축 시나리오에 의한 전력소매비용평가)

  • Kim, Yong-Ha;Woo, Sung-Min;Oh, Seok-Hyun;You, Jeong-Hee
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
    • /
    • v.58 no.3
    • /
    • pp.478-485
    • /
    • 2009
  • This paper describes retail cost through scenario in the ratio of CG(Centralized Generation) and DG(Decentralized Generation) that constructs new generation capacity in the future. it is not calculated for the supply, but for demand considering an advantage of DG. In the Korea Power System, retail cost that composed of construction, T&D, fuel, maintenance and environment shows macro-trend that power system planning through penetration for DG will be more significant.

A Study on Micro Tool Deflection in Micro Endmilling Process (마이크로 엔드밀링 시 공구 변형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, G.H.;Yoon, G.S.;Heo, Y.M.;Jung, W.C.;Cho, M.W.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
    • /
    • v.15 no.9 s.90
    • /
    • pp.654-659
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, the real shapes of micro tool deflection were observed. In micro endmilling process, micro tool deflection generates very serious problems in contrast to macro tool deflection. For analyzing the micro tool deflection, the trend of micro tool deflection was observed using real captured images in this paper. To get the real images of micro tool deflection, micro slot cutting processes were executed under cutting volume using micro endmill($Dia.\;200{\mu}m$) and real images of tool deflection were obtained during cutting processing by high-speed camera. Finally, the extent of tool deflection was calculated by the deflection angle according to cutting volume.

A case study to Regression Analysis using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 회귀분석 사례 조사)

  • Kim, Jie-Hyun;Ree, Sang-Bok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
    • /
    • 2010.04a
    • /
    • pp.402-408
    • /
    • 2010
  • Forecasting have qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative one analyze macro-economic factors such as the rate of exchange, oil price, interest rate and also predict the micro-economic factors such as sales and demands. Applying various statistical methods depends on the type of data. when data has seasonality and trend, Time Series analysis is proper but when it has casual relation, Regression analysis is good for this. Time Series and Regression can be used together. This study investigate artificial neural networks which is predictive technique for casual relation and try to compare the accuracy of forecasting between regression analysis and artificial neural network.

  • PDF

Analysis of Nano-Tribophysics (Nano-Tribophysics 해석 기술)

  • 최덕현;황운봉
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
    • /
    • 2003.06a
    • /
    • pp.215-218
    • /
    • 2003
  • Nano-scale experiments for adhesion force and friction force were performed with AFM/FFM. In macro-scale, the friction coefficient is constant without relating to the change of contact area. However, many papers have indicated that in nano-scale, the friction coefficient is related to the contact area. Contact area would increase with the normal force. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the trend of the friction coefficient of Si(100) and Mica according to the normal force and then. the contact area was calculated by JKR-theory. Results showed the friction coefficient was constant under 180 nm$^2$ contact area and over 180 nm$^2$ contact area, it was degraded. Moreover. the friction coefficient was constant according to the adhesion force.

  • PDF

Analysis of the Structural Changes in Household Debt Distributions by Householder Age in Korea and in the US

  • KIM, JISEOB
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.37 no.4
    • /
    • pp.21-54
    • /
    • 2015
  • This paper analyzes how and why household debt distribution by the householder age has changed over the past decade both in Korea and the US. Data shows that the proportion of household debt held by younger households has decreased, while that held by older households has increased. Empirical analysis shows that a change in the demographic distribution of householders is the main driving force that has shifted the household debt distribution. Given that demographic aging is an inevitable trend, the proportion of household debt held by older households is also expected to increase. Therefore, the Korean government must preemptively prepare for the household debt problem, especially for debt held by older households, by strengthening macro-prudential policies, preventing asset price deflation, restructuring household debt contract structures, and reforming labor market inflexibility.

  • PDF

An Improvement Strategy for the Green Growth Policies of Korean Public Corporations (공기업 녹색성장 정책의 개선방안에 대한 연구)

  • Shin, Wanseon;Kwak, Chaeki;Park, Yeontark
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.36 no.3
    • /
    • pp.25-33
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study investigates the current status of the green growth policies of Korean public corporations and proposes some potential improvement ideas. A set of twenty global green trends are first elicited by using classified macro trends of environmental changes. The green trends are categorized into four key issues based on which domestic and international research efforts are compared. The management performance reports of Korean public corporations are then throughly analyzed to evaluate the validity of their strategic green tasks in relevant to the global green trends. Finally, we suggest some potential government policies for enhancing the existing green growth businesses of public corporations.

Study on the Cooperation Model for Fusion-Technology Development in SMEs (융합기술 개발을 위한 중소기업 간 협업모형 제안)

  • Cho, Chanwoo;Lee, Sungjoo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.198-203
    • /
    • 2013
  • Industry convergence is the inexorable trend, which has become a fundamental concept to understand the industrial dynamics and to develop business strategies. However, most of the previous studies on convergence have dealt with the issues at the macro-level (technology- or industry-level), little attention has been paid to the analysis of convergence at the micro level (firm-level). Recognizing that firms are the principal agents that develop fusion technologies, it is encouraged to help firms to work together for technology convergence. Therefore, this research proposes a collaboration model for SMEs, since SMEs tend to have novel ideas and are flexible enough to make fusion-technology. To do this, we conducted a survey for Korean SMEs and analyzed their successful cases of collaboration, which was used as a basis to develop the model. The research results will help develop strategy or policy to promote the collaboration between SMEs and ultimately to make a fusion-technology.

The Dynamics of Film Genre Box Office Success: Macro-Economic Conditions, Fashion Momentum, and Inter-Genre Competition (영화 장르 흥행의 동학: 거시경제, 유행의 동력, 장르 간 경쟁의 효과)

  • Dong-Il Jung;Yeseul Kim;Chaewon Ahn;Youngmin Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.389-397
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study examines how macro-economic conditions, fashion momentum, and inter-genre competition affect movie genre's popularity, thus shaping fashion trends in the feature film market in Korea. Using panel data analysis of genre-specific audience sizes with 6 genre cateories and 132 monthly time points, we found that favorable economic conditions generate the fashion trend in the action/crime genre, while the deterioration of the economic conditions leads to the decline of action/crime genre. The finding implies that economic situations influence cultural consumers' psychological states, which in turn shape the fashion trend in certain direction. Furthermore, we found that the action/crime genre has a greater fashion momentum and its competitive power is stronger than other genres, suggesting that this genre has longer fashion cycle even if other genres rise to the top in their popularity. We argue that such enlengthened fahion cycle and competitive stength of the action/crime genre are associated with its breadth of niche width and audience loyalty. Scholarly and practical implications are discussed.