• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical assessment

Search Result 1,561, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN;JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL;LIM, TAE-JIN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.47 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-65
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES WITH THE PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT CODE OSCAAR

  • HOMMA TOSHIMITSU;TOMITA KENICHI;HATO SHINJI
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.37 no.3
    • /
    • pp.245-258
    • /
    • 2005
  • This paper addresses two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty in probabilistic accident consequence assessments. The off-site consequence assessment code OSCAAR has been applied to uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the individual risks of early fatality and latent cancer fatality in the population outside the plant boundary due to a severe accident. A new stratified meteorological sampling scheme was successfully implemented into the trajectory model for atmospheric dispersion and the statistical variability of the probability distributions of the consequence was examined. A total of 65 uncertain input parameters was considered and 128 runs of OSCAAR with 144 meteorological sequences were performed in the parameter uncertainty analysis. The study provided the range of uncertainty for the expected values of individual risks of early and latent cancer fatality close to the site. In the sensitivity analyses, the correlation/regression measures were useful for identifying those input parameters whose uncertainty makes an important contribution to the overall uncertainty for the consequence. This could provide valuable insights into areas for further research aiming at reducing the uncertainties.

Determining Appropriate Bioeconomic Models for Stock Assessment of Aquatic Resources (수산자원량 추정을 위한 생물경제 모델의 적합성평가)

  • 표희동
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.33 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-98
    • /
    • 2002
  • As a contribution to developing fishery stock assessment, optimum sustainable yield and its international standards such as MSY, MEY, and dynamic MEY for six recommended fisheries are developed using bio-economic models. For selecting the appropriate model, five models - Schaefer, Schnute, Walters and Hilborn, Fox, and CY&P models are tested in effort and catch data of six species. Surprisingly all the models except the CY&P model failed to satisfy statistical standards such as goodness-of-fitness and reliability. Generally, the CY&P model holds good fitness and statistically significant level for all of six fisheries. However, the CY&P model for squid, where the intrinsic growth rate is high, could not explain MSY, MEY, and dynamic MEY appropriately. This study makes a contribution to develop the modified model for the intrinsic growth rate of 1. The reformulated model represents the results reasonably even though the estimated equation has not good fitness. Although most of the CY&P models appear to have good fits and validated results for some cases, these models also seem to be quite sensitive to parameters which means a more stable model should be developed and data should carefully be handled. In particular biological and technical interactions such as multispecies, predator prey relationship, age structure and mortality should be taken into account. In addition, economic factors and fishing efforts such as price, cost, technical change and a reasonable function of fishing input should simultaneously be considered.

  • PDF

Children's Perception of Parental Authority (부모의 권위에 대한 아동의 지각 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung Hi
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.45-60
    • /
    • 1987
  • This research examined children's perception of parental authority within three different types of rules : moral, social-conventional, and personal issue. Specifically, two major aspects of parental authority-legitimacy and obedience-were explored. The subjects of this study were 120 children from an elementary school in Kwangju. There were 40 subjects (20 males and 20 females) in each of three age groups: 7-, 9-, and 11- year-olds. The subjects were administered an interview individually. Based on Tisak (1986) open-ended questions concerning three family rules (moral rule, social-conventional rule, personal issue) were administered. Responses to the assessment questions were coded as positive or negative. Responses to the judgment conception questions were coded into 7 categories : Other's Walfare, Social Coordination, Personal choice, Deservedness of Punishment for Wrongdoing, Existence of Authority, Conflicting Personal Interest and Authority, and Personal Development. Statistical analysis of obtained data was by percentage and ${\chi}_2$ test using log linear procedure. The results were as follows : (1) There was a significant main effect of type of rule on the children's assessment regarding legitimacy and obedience of parental authority. The children (average 96%) stated that it was all right for parents to make rules prohiliting an act when it pertained to moral and social conventions. However, the majority of the children (average 40%) stated that it was not right for parents to regulate personal issues. (2) There was a significant interaction effect between type of rule and age. (3) There was a significant main effect of rules on the children's judgment conception of parental authority. (4) There was a significant interaction effect between rules and ages on children's judgment conception of parental authority.

  • PDF

Erogonomic assessment of "Noraebang" noise and potential hearing-loss and hearing protection strategies (노래방 소음 및 난청가능성의 인간공학적 평가와 청각보호방안)

  • 박민용
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.79-90
    • /
    • 1996
  • A research project was conducted to assess the levels of noise exposed to "Noraebang" users and potential hazards to noise-induced hearing loss due to commercial Noraebang noise. A two-way, mixed-factors factorial design was employed for the experiment using independent variables of "noise source" (no- singer, 1-singer, and 2-singer conditions) and "music type" (Trot, Ballad, and Rock music) with 18 normal hearing subjects. Each singer group sang 5 popular songs of each music type in each signing condition, whereas background music was just played for the no-singer condition. For each music played/sung, equivalent continuous sound pressure levels and maximum sound pressure levels were measured for data analysis purposes. Pure-tone audiometry was applied for measuring subjects' hearing threshold levels before and after exposure to Noraebgang noise. The statistical analyses indicate that average continuous noise levels due to Noraebang leisure environment were very serious, especially when two people were singing (higher than 95 dBA). Furthermore, maximum noise levels often exceeded the OSHA's non-premissible 115 dBA level. Worse yet, hearing loss assessment implies that Noraebang facilities may pose a serious threat to noise-induced hearing loss, based on 6-8 dB loss at 125 Hz and 8 dB loss at 4000 Hz after about 1-hour Noraebang noise exposure.

  • PDF

Factor Analysis of the Adolescent Personality Assessment Inventory (청소년 성격평가질문지 요인분석)

  • Kim, Dae-Jin;Park, Min-Cheol;Lee, Kui-Haeng;Lee, Sang-Yeol;Oh, Sang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.226-235
    • /
    • 2015
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure of the Adolescent Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI-A) in a standardized adolescent sample using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Methods : For this purpose, three models about factor structure of the PAI-A were explored with EFA in 490 adolescents and then were evaluated with CFA in 268 young offenders. Results : The results showed that the five factor model was considered to be most appropriate for factor structures of the PAI-A in EFA. However, none of the factor models were appropriate for the factor structures of the PAI-A in CFA. Conclusion : These findings suggest that the "five factor model" is thought to explain the PAI-A the best, but further studies are needed.

Quality Assurance and Quality Control method for Volatile Organic Compounds measured in the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station (광화학측정망에서 측정한 휘발성유기화합물의 정도관리 방법)

  • Shin, Hye-Jung;Kim, Jong-Choon;Kim, Yong-Pyo
    • Particle and aerosol research
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.31-44
    • /
    • 2011
  • The hourly volatile organic compounds(VOCs) concentrations between 2005 and 2008 at Bulgwang photochemical assessment monitoring station were investigated to establish a method for quality assurance and quality control(QA/QC) procedure. Systematic error, erratic error, and random error, which was manifested by outlier and highly fluctuated data, were checked and removed. About 17.3% of the raw data were excluded according to the proposed QA/QC procedure. After QA/QC, relative standard deviation for representing 15 species concentrations decreased from 94.7-548.0% to 63.4-125.8%, implying the QA/QC procedure is proper. For further evaluation about the adequacy of QA/QC procedure, principal components analysis(PCA) was carried out. When the data after QA/QC procedure was used for PCA, the extracted principal components were different from the result from the raw data and could logically explain the major emission sources(gasoline vapor, vehicle exhaust, and solvent usage). The QA/QC procedure based on the concept of errors is inferred to proper to be applied on VOCs. However, an additional QA/QC step considering the relationship between species in the atmosphere needs to be further considered.

Seismic hazard assessment for two cities in Eastern Iran

  • Farzampour, Alireza;Kamali-Asl, Arash
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.681-697
    • /
    • 2015
  • Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

Noisy Band Removal Using Band Correlation in Hyperspectral lmages

  • Huan, Nguyen Van;Kim, Hak-Il
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.263-270
    • /
    • 2009
  • Noise band removal is a crucial step before spectral matching since the noise bands can distort the typical shape of spectral reflectance, leading to degradation on the matching results. This paper proposes a statistical noise band removal method for hyperspectral data using the correlation coefficient between two bands. The correlation coefficient measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables. Considering each band of the hyperspectral data as a random variable, the correlation between two signal bands is high; existence of a noisy band will produce a low correlation due to ill-correlativeness and undirected ness. The unsupervised k-nearest neighbor clustering method is implemented in accordance with three well-accepted spectral matching measures, namely ED, SAM and SID in order to evaluate the validation of the proposed method. This paper also proposes a hierarchical scheme of combining those measures. Finally, a separability assessment based on the between-class and the within-class scatter matrices is followed to evaluate the applicability of the proposed noise band removal method. Also, the paper brings out a comparison for spectral matching measures. The experimental results conducted on a 228-band hyperspectral data show that while the SAM measure is rather resistant, the performance of SID measure is more sensitive to noise.

Investigation of wind actions and effects on the Leaning Tower of Pisa

  • Solari, Giovanni;Reinhold, Timothy A.;Livesey, Flora
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-23
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper describes wind investigations for the Leaning Tower of Pisa which were conducted as part of an overall evaluation of its behaviour. Normally a short, stiff and heavy building would not be a candidate for detailed wind analyses. However, because of extremely high soil pressures developed from its inclination, there has been increasing concern that environmental loading such as wind actions could combine with existing conditions to cause the collapse of the tower. The studies involved wind assessment at the site as a function of wind direction, analysis of historical wind data to determine extreme wind probabilities of occurrence, estimation of structural properties, analytical and boundary layer wind tunnel investigations of wind loads and evaluation of the response with special concern for loads in the direction of inclination of the tower and significant wake effects from the neighboring cathedral for critical wind directions. The conclusions discuss the role of wind on structural safety, the precision of results attained and possible future studies involving field measurements aimed at validating or improving the analytical and boundary layer wind tunnel based assessments.