Nuclear Engineering and Technology

Korean Nuclear Society (한국원자력학회)
권호 표지

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES WITH THE PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT CODE OSCAAR

  • HOMMA TOSHIMITSU (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute Department of Reactor Safety Research) ;
  • TOMITA KENICHI (Visible Information Center, Inc) ;
  • HATO SHINJI (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute Department of Reactor Safety Research)
  • Published : 2005.06.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This paper addresses two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty in probabilistic accident consequence assessments. The off-site consequence assessment code OSCAAR has been applied to uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the individual risks of early fatality and latent cancer fatality in the population outside the plant boundary due to a severe accident. A new stratified meteorological sampling scheme was successfully implemented into the trajectory model for atmospheric dispersion and the statistical variability of the probability distributions of the consequence was examined. A total of 65 uncertain input parameters was considered and 128 runs of OSCAAR with 144 meteorological sequences were performed in the parameter uncertainty analysis. The study provided the range of uncertainty for the expected values of individual risks of early and latent cancer fatality close to the site. In the sensitivity analyses, the correlation/regression measures were useful for identifying those input parameters whose uncertainty makes an important contribution to the overall uncertainty for the consequence. This could provide valuable insights into areas for further research aiming at reducing the uncertainties.

Keywords

References

  1. Nuclear Energy Agency and Commission of the European Communities, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Assessment Codes -Second International Comparison-Overview Report,' Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1994).
  2. Nuclear Energy Agency and Commission of the European Communities, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Assessment Codes -Second International Comparison-Technical Report,' EUR-15109, Commission of the European communities (1994).
  3. L. H. J. Goossens, F. T. Harper, B. C. P. Kraan and H. Metivier, 'Expert Hudgement for a Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis,' Radiat. Prot. Dosim., 90, 295 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a033151
  4. Commission of the European Communities, 'Cosyma: A New Programne Package for accident Consequence Assessment,' EUR-13028, a joint report by kernforschungszentrum karlsruhe and National Radiological Protection Board (1990).
  5. H-N Jow, J. L. Sprung, J. A. Rollstin, L. T. Ritchie, D. I. Chanin, 'MELCOR: Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS),' NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1990).
  6. T. Homma, T., O. Togawa and T. Iijima, 'Development of accident consequence assessment code at JAERI,' EUR-13013/2, p.1049-1063, Commission of the European Communities (1990).
  7. T. Homma, J. Ishikawa, K. Tomita and K. Muramatsu, 'Radiological Consequence Assessments of Degraded Core Accident Scenarios Derived from a Generic Level 2PSA of a BWR,' JAERI-Research 2000-060, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (2000).
  8. Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, 'Interim Report on the Discussion on Safety Goals,' December 2003, (in Japanese).
  9. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 'PRA Procedures Guide: A Guide to the Performance of Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants,' NUREG/CR-2300 Vol. 1, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1983).
  10. S-R. Peterson, F.O. Hoffman and H. Kohler, 'Summary of the BIOMOVS A4 Scenario: Testing Models of the Air-Pasture-Cow Milk Pathway Using Chernobyl Fallout Data,' Health Physics, 71, 149 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1097/00004032-199608000-00005
  11. International Atomic Energy Agency, 'Validation of Models Using Chernobyl Fallout Data from the Central Bohemia Region of the Czech Republic, Scenario CB,' IAEA-TECDOC-795, Vienna, Austria (1995).
  12. K.M. Thiessen, B.A. Napier, V. Filistovic, T. Homma, B. Kanyar, P. Krajewski, A.I. Kryshev, T. Nedveckaite, A. Nenyei, T.G. Sazykina, U. Tveten, K.-L. Sjoblom, and C. Robinson, 'Model Testing Using Data on 131I Released form Hanford,' J. Environmental Radioactivity (in printing).
  13. K.M. Thiessen, T.G. Sazykina, A.I. Apostoaei, M.I. Balonov, J. Crawford, R. Domel, S.V. Fesenko, V. Filistovic, D. Galeriu, T. Homma, B. Kanyar, P. Krajewski, A.I. Kryshev, I.I. Kryshev, T. Nedveckaite, Z. Ould-Dada, N.I. Sanzharova, C. Robinson, and K.-L. Sjoblom, 'Model Testing Using Data on 137Cs from Chernobyl Fallout in the Iput River Catchment Area of Russia,' J. Environmental Radioactivity (in printing).
  14. International Atomic Energy Agency, 'Evaluating the Reliability of Predictions Made Using Environmental Transfer Models,' Safety Series Report No. 100, Vienna, Austria (1989).
  15. D. B. Turner, 'A Diffusion Model for an Urban Area,' J. Appl. Meteo., 3, 83 (1964). https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003<0083:ADMFAU>2.0.CO;2
  16. T. Homma, Y. Inoue and K. Tomita, 'OSCAAR Calculations for the Hanford Dose Reconstruction Scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2,' JAERI-Research 2000-049, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (2000).
  17. T. Homma and T. Matsunaga, 'OSCAAR Calculations for the Iput Dose Reconstruction Scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2,' JAERI-Research 2000-059, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (2000).
  18. J. S. Evans, D. W. Moeller and D. W. Cooper, 'Health Effects Model for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Part I: Introduction, Integration, and Summary, Part II: Scientific Basis for Health Effects Models,' NUREG/CR-4214, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1985).
  19. J. S. Evans, 'Health Effects Model for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Part I: Introduction, Integration, and Summary,' NUREG/CR-4214 Rev.2, Part I, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1993).
  20. T. Homma, T. Takahashi and H. Yonehara (Eds.), 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents (II),' JAERI-Review 2000-029, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (2000).
  21. H.-J. Panitz, C. Matzerath and I. Pausler-Sauer, 'UFOMOD: Atmospheric Dispersion and Deposition,' KfK-4332, Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (1989).
  22. E. van Wonderen, J. van der Steen, and I. Hasemann, 'COSYMA:Users Intercomparison Exercise,' EUR-15108, Commission of the European Communities (1994).
  23. I. Hasemann, J. A. Jones, J. van der Steen and E. van Wonderen, 'Experience with COSYMA in an International Intercomparison of Probabilistic Accident Consequence Assessment Codes,' Nucl. Technol., 113, 291 (1996). https://doi.org/10.13182/NT96-A35209
  24. T. Homma, X. Liu and K. Tomita, 'Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Accident Consequence Assessments on Meteorological Sampling Schemes,' Proc. 5th Int. Conf. Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 5), Osaka, Japan, Nov. 27- Dec, 1, 2000.
  25. X. Liu, K. Tomita and T. Homma, 'Study on a New Meteorological Sampling Scheme Developed for the OSCAAR Code System,' JAERI-Research 2002-004, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (2002).
  26. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 'Sever Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Power Plants,' NUREG-1150 Vol. 1, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1990).
  27. A. Saltelli and T. Homma, 'LISA package user guide Part III, SPOP Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Model Output, Program Description and User Guide,' EUR-13924, Commission of the European Communities (1992).
  28. W. J. Conover, Practical Nonparametric Statistics, 2nd ed., John Wiley & Sons. New York (1980).
  29. J. A. Jones, P. A. Mansfield and M. J. Crick, 'Uncertainty Analysis of the Predicted Consequences of Nuclear Accidents Using the NRPB Code MARC-2A,' NRPBR274, National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton, UK (1995).
  30. J. C. Helton, J. D. Johnson, A. W. Shiver and J. L. Sprung, 'Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Early Exposure Results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model,' Reliability Engng and System Safety, 48, 91 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(95)00002-J
  31. F. Fisher, J. Ehrhardt and I. Hasemann, 'Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of the Complete Program System UFOMOD and of Selected Submodels,' KfK-4627, Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (1990).
  32. T. Homma, K. Tomita and Y. Inoue, 'Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Using an Accident Consequence Assessment Code OSCAAR,' Proc. 6th Int. Conf. Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 6), Puerto Rico, USA, Jun. 23-28, 2002.
  33. J. Ishikawa, K. Muramatsu and T. Sakamoto, 'Systematic Source Term Analyses for Level 3 PSA of a BWR with Mark-II Type Containment with THALES-2 Code,' Proc. 10th Int. Conf. Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 10), Arlington, USA, Apr. 14-18, 2002.
  34. F. T. Harper, C. Hora, M. L. Young, L. A. Miller, C. H. Lui, M. D. Mckay, J. C. Helton, L. H. J. Goossens, R. M. Cooke, J. Pasler-Sauer, B. Kraan and J. A. Jones, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Dispersion and Deposition Uncertainty Assessment,' NREG/CR-6244, EUR 15855, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Commission of the European Communities (1995).
  35. L. H. J. Goossens, J. Boardman, F. T. Harper, B. C. P. Kraan, M. L. Young, R. M. Cooke, S. C. Hora and J. A. Jones, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Uncertainty Assessment for Deposited material and External Doses,' NREG/CR-6526, EUR 16772, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Commission of the European Communities (1997).
  36. J. Brown, L. H. J. Goossens, F. T. Harper, E. H. Haskin, B. C. P. Kraan, M. L. Abbott, R. M. Cooke, M. L. Young, J. A. Jones, S. C. Hora and A. Rood, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Food Chain Uncertainty Assessment,' NREG/CR-6523, EUR 16771, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Commission of the European Communities (1997).
  37. L. H. J. Goossens, J. D. Harrison, F. T. Harper, B. C. P. Kraan, R. M. Cooke and S. C. Hora, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Internal Dosimetry Uncertainty Assessment,' NREG/CR-6571, EUR 16773, U. S. Nuclear Regulatoyr Commission and Commission of the European Communities (1998).
  38. F. E. Haskin, L. H. J. Goossens, F. T. Harper, J. Grupa, B. C. P. Kraan, R. M. Cooke and S. C. Hora, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Early Health Uncertainty Assessment,' NREG/CR-6545, EUR 16775, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Commission of the European Communities (1997).
  39. M. Little, C. M. Muirhead, L. H. J. Goossens, F. T. Harper, B. C. P. Kraan, R. M. Cooke and S. C. Hora, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Late Health Uncertainty Assessment,' NREG/CR-6555, EUR 16774, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Commission of the European Communities (1997).
  40. L. H. J. Goossens, B. C. P. Kraan, R. M. Cooke, J. A. Jones, J. Ehrhardt, F. Fisher, I. Hasemann, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Using COSYMA: Methodology and Processing Techniques,' EUR 18827, European Commission (1997).
  41. L. H. J. Goosens, B. C. P. Kraan, R. M. Cooke, J. A. Jones, J. Ehrhardt, F. Fisher, I. Hasemann, 'Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Using COSYMA: Overall Uncertainty Analysis,' EUR 18826, European Commission (1997).
  42. International Commission on Radiological Protection, 'Age - dependent Doses to Members of the Public from Intake of Radionuclides: Part 1,' ICRP Publication 56, Pergamon Press, Oxford (1989).
  43. T. Homma and A. SalteIli, 'LISA Package User Guide Part I, PREP Preparation of Input Sample for Monte Carlo Simulations,' EUR-13922, Commission of the European Communities (1992).
  44. D. Draper, A. Pereira, P. Prado, A. Saltelli, R. Cheal, S. Eguilior, B. Mendes and S. Tarantola, 'Scenario and Parametric Uncertainty in GESAMAC: A Methodological Study in Nuclear Waste Disposal Risk Assessment,' Comput. Phys. Commun., 117, 142 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-4655(98)00170-2