• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제13권21호
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• pp.29-41
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• 1990

An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.665-676
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this paper proposes an effective and systematic methods of risk management in product development project. Methods: This paper first discusses what risk factors be considered during product development period and then presented a model for preventive risk management. For that, this paper proposes how to evaluate the risk factors and risk events, and how to select prevention action for managing risk factors effectively. For this process, this paper uses well-known quality tools such as House of Quality (HOQ) and Failure Mode and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) methods. Results: There is an inherent need for the development of robust risk management framework in order for product development projects to be successful. The identification and quantification of risk factors, risk events, and prevention actions can have significant effects on the success of a product development projects. Project managers can implement the proposed model to improve project success. Conclusion: The findings showed that this method would be effective for project managements in dealing with risk management issues in product development projects. This method presented would be an one of good guidelines for practitioners in the industry.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권1호
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• pp.119-130
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• 2023

Among the various elements of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), human failure events (HFEs) and their dependencies are major contributors to the quantification of risk of a nuclear power plant. Currently, the dependency among HFEs is reflected using a post-processing method in PSA, wherein several drawbacks, such as limited propagation of minimal cutsets through the fault tree and improper truncation of minimal cutsets exist. In this paper, we propose a method to model the HFE dependency directly in a fault tree using the if-then-else logic. The proposed method proved to be equivalent to the conventional post-processing method while addressing the drawbacks of the latter. We also developed a software tool to facilitate the implementation of the proposed method considering the need for modeling the dependency between multiple HFEs. We applied the proposed method to a specific case to demonstrate the drawbacks of the conventional post-processing method and the advantages of the proposed method. When applied appropriately under specific conditions, the direct fault-tree modeling of HFE dependency enhances the accuracy of the risk quantification and facilitates the analysis of minimal cutsets.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2014년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.347-349
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• 2014

Model verification and validation (V&V) is a current research topic to build computational models with high predictive capability by addressing the general concepts, processes and statistical techniques. The hypothesis test for validity check is one of the model validation techniques and gives a guideline to evaluate the validity of a computational model when limited experimental data only exist due to restricted test resources (e.g., time and budget). The hypothesis test for validity check mainly employ Type I error, the risk of rejecting the valid computational model, for the validity evaluation since quantification of Type II error is not feasible for model validation. However, Type II error, the risk of accepting invalid computational model, should be importantly considered for an engineered products having high risk on predicted results. This paper proposes a technique named as the response-adaptive experimental design to reduce Type II error by adaptively designing experimental conditions for the validation experiment. A tire tread block problem and a numerical example are employed to show the effectiveness of the response-adaptive experimental design for the validity evaluation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.710-720
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• 2017

In Korea, many nuclear power plants operate at a single site based on geographical characteristics, but the population density near the sites is higher than that in other countries. Thus, multiunit accidents are a more important consideration than in other countries and should be addressed appropriately. Currently, there are many issues related to a multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). One of them is the quantification of a multiunit PSA model. A traditional PSA uses a Boolean manipulation of the fault tree in terms of the minimal cut set. However, such methods have some limitations when rare event approximations cannot be used effectively or a very small truncation limit should be applied to identify accident sequence combinations for a multiunit site. In particular, it is well known that seismic risk in terms of core damage frequency can be overestimated because there are many events that have a high failure probability. In this study, we propose a quantification method based on a Monte Carlo approach for a multiunit PSA model. This method can consider all possible accident sequence combinations in a multiunit site and calculate a more exact value for events that have a high failure probability. An example model for six identical units at a site was also developed and quantified to confirm the applicability of the proposed method.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2019년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.45-46
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• 2019

Accident rate in domestic construction industry has been increased rapidly in every year. In particular, the rate of death has been shown very high compared with other industries. It means that safety activities performed by government is not effective in reducing the rate of accident. To solve these problems, the risk factors should be predicted in advance, controlled, monitored and managed from start of project to end of project. However, most studies have been conducted by using frequency of occurrence of accident and only listed the importance of risk. Therefore, the objective of this study is to provide basic material to develop risk quantifying model for human accidents on construction site in South Korea. In the future, it is expected to be used as a reference of study on developing safety mangement checklist in construction industry and model for forecasting accident.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.83-94
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• 2022

In recent years, some studies have identified and quantified factors that can increase or decrease the seismic vulnerability of buildings. These modifier factors, related to the building characteristics and condition, are taken into account in the vulnerability assessment, by means of a numerical estimation resulting from the quantification of these modifiers through vulnerability indexes. However, views have differed on the definition and the quantification of modifiers. In this study, modifier parameters and scores of the Risk-UE Level 1 method are adjusted based on the Algerian seismic code recommendations and the reviews proposed in the literature. The adjusted modifiers and scores are applied to reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Boumerdes city, in order to assess probable seismic damage. Comparison between estimated damage and observed damage caused by the 2003 Boumerdes earthquake is done, with the objective to (i) validate the model involving influence of the modifier parameters on the seismic vulnerability, and (ii) to define the relationship between modifiers and damage. This research may help planners in improving seismic regulations and reducing vulnerability of existing buildings.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 가을학술발표대회논문집
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• pp.249-250
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• 2023

The vulnerability factor analysis and risk quantification model for aging buildings presented in this study can be utilized by governmental agencies such as the Facility Safety Foundation, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and various local governments. Policymakers can use this to supplement inadequacies in existing checklists, and it is expected that they can proactively prevent risks by evaluating dangers based on specific aging characteristics of buildings.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.471-482
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• 2012

To assess the risk of nuclear power plant operation and to determine the risk impact of digital systems, there is a need to quantitatively assess the reliability of the digital systems in a justifiable manner. The Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general and PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Currently digital I&C systems are mostly analyzed simply and conventionally in PRA, based on failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree modelling. More dynamic approaches are still in the trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale PRA-models. As basic events CPU failures, application software failures and common cause failures (CCF) between identical components are modelled.The primary goal is to model dependencies. However, it is not clear which failure modes or system parts CCF:s should be postulated for. A clear distinction can be made between the treatment of protection and control systems. There is a general consensus that protection systems shall be included in PRA, while control systems can be treated in a limited manner. OECD/NEA CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRisk) has set up a task group, called DIGREL, to develop taxonomy of failure modes of digital components for the purposes of PRA. The taxonomy is aimed to be the basis of future modelling and quantification efforts. It will also help to define a structure for data collection and to review PRA studies.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.167-167
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• 2020

Annual sediment deposition in reservoirs behind weirs poses flood risk, while its accurate prediction remains a challenge. Sediment management by hydraulic flushing is an effective method to maintain reservoir storage. In this study, an integrated approach to predict sediment inflow and sediment flushing simulation in reservoirs is presented. The annual sediment inflow prediction was carried out with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modelling. RESCON model was applied for quantification of sediment flushing feasibility criteria. The integrated approach was applied on Sangju Weir and also on estuary of Nakdong River (NREB). The mean annual sediment inflow predicted at Sangju Weir and NREB was 400,000 ㎥ and 170,000 ㎥, respectively. The sediment characteristics gathered were used to setup RESCON model and sediment balance ratio (SBR) and long term capacity ratio (LTCR) were used as flushing efficiency indicators. For Sangju Weir, the flushing discharge, Q_f = 140 ㎥/s with a drawdown of 5 m, and flushing duration, T_f = 10 days was necessary for efficient flushing. At NREB site, the parameters for efficient flushing were Q_f = 80 ㎥/s, T_f = 5 days, N = 1, El_f = 2.24 m. The hydraulic flushing was concluded feasible for sediment management at both Sangju Weir and NREB.