• 제목/요약/키워드: low fertility rate

검색결과 182건 처리시간 0.03초

출산율 예측 모형 개발 (Development of Model Estimating Fertility Rate for Korea)

  • 이삼식;최효진
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.77-99
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구는 사회 환경과 정책 등의 변화에 따라 출산율을 예측할 수 있는 모형을 개발하고자 하였다. 기존의 인구 추계 시 적용하는 출산율은 최근의 추세가 유지되거나 일률적으로 감소 또는 증가할 것이라는 가정 하에서 제시되므로 저출산 고령사회정책 등에 반영하는데 한계가 있기 때문이다. 본 연구의 출산율 예측모형은 OECD 10개 국가들의 종단면적 및 횡단면적 경험치를 동시에 적용한 패널분석(panel analysis)을 통하여 구축하였다. 모형에는 인구학적 요인으로 조혼인율, 초산연령, 영아사망률, 혼외출산비율, 경제적 요인으로 여성경제활동참가율, 일인당 국민소득, 사회문화적 요인으로 남성대비 여성대학진학 비율, 양성평등지수, 그리고 정책적 요인으로 GDP대비 보건정책 지출비율, GDP대비 가족정책 지출비율의 독립변수들이 포함되었다. 본 연구에서 개발한 모형을 적용하여 한국의 최근 년도 출산율을 예측한 결과 실제 출산율과 아주 미세한 차이만 존재하여 상당히 적합한 것으로 평가되었다. 이러한 출산율 예측모형을 이용하여 인구학적 요인, 경제적 정책적 요인 및 사회문화적 요인 중 일부의 변화를 가정할 경우 한국의 출산율이 어떻게 변화할 것인가에 대한 시뮬레이션을 실시하였다. 일례로 GDP 대비 가족지출비율을 현 프랑스 수준까지 높였을 경우 합계출산율은 1.6 수준으로 높아질 것으로 추정되었다. 이와 같은 출산율 예측모형은 정책의 강화 시기 및 정도를 결정하는데 유용할 것으로 판단된다.

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최근의 출산력과 정책적 함의 (Recent Fertility and its Policy Implications)

  • 박경애
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.137-156
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    • 2007
  • 합계출산율이 2005년 1.08이라는 최저치에서 2006년 1.13으로 증가하면서, 이 증가가 각종 정책의 결과이기 때문에 출산력 증가가 지속될 것이라는 주장과 일시적일 것이라는 주장 간 논란이 있다. 이 연구는 인구동태신고 자료를 활용하여 최근의 출산력 변화를 집중적으로 살펴봄으로써 정책 시사점을 찾고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 출산순위별 템포조정합계출산율, 모의 연령 및 출산순위별 출산율, 연령별 유배우 출산율, 연령별 유배우 이혼율 등을 분석하였다. 전년대비 2006년 합계출산율과 출생아수가 증가한 것은 여성의 초혼과 첫째아 출산의 연기가 주춤해지면서 주로 30대 초반의 첫째아 출산 증가에 기인한다. 2006년과 2007년에는 20대 후반 여성인구의 증가(제3차 베이비붐 효과) 및 초혼의 급증으로 2007년과 2008년에는 출생아수가 증가할 것이다. 다만, 20대의 미혼율은 증가하구 유배우 출산율은 감소 추세이어서 장기적 관점의 출생아수 및 출산율 증가는 미지수이다. 또한, 첫째아와 둘째아의 출산율은 급속도로 저하되는데 반해, 셋째아 이상은 변화가 없으며, 둘째아 출산이 출산연령조정의 영향을 많이 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 셋째아 이상을 출산하도록 장려하는 것보다는 첫째아, 둘째아를 낳을 수 있는 사회적 환경 조성이 더 필요하고 현실적임을 시사한다. 아울러, 사회적 양육대책 마련, 고령출산에 따른 모자보건문제, 다문화가정지원책 필요성 등을 언급하고 있다.

출산순위별 출산증가 요인 분석 (The Analysis of the Determinants Affecting the Rise of Fertility Rates by Each Parity)

  • 이성용
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.51-70
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    • 2009
  • 이 연구의 목적은 개인의 이데올로기, 개인의 경제적 상황에 대한 인식, 그리고 개인의 사회 문화적 특성들이 어떻게 2006년 이후 2008년 까지 출산회복기의 출산에 영향을 미치는지를 출산순위별로 분석하는 것이다. 분석 자료로는 2008년 한국보건사회연구원이 조사한 2007년 전국 출산동향 조사가 사용되었다. 이 자료의 응답자는 2007년도에 출산한 여성 1467명과 2007년도에 출산하지 않은 여성 1,000명으로 구성되어 있다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이데올로기, 경제적 상황, 그리고 사회경제적 특성 요인들이 출산 행위에 미치는 영향은 출산순위에 따라 차이가 났다. 둘째, 출산장려 정책은 육아와 같은 경제적 지원뿐 아니라 부부관계보다 부모와 자녀간의 관계를 중시하는 전통적 가족이데올로기를 강조할 필요성이 있다. 셋째, 혼인연령을 낮추는 정책이 필요하다.

저출산 대응정책이 출산순위별 출산에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of Fertility Policies on Childbirth by Birth Order)

  • 유계숙
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2009
  • The Korean Government has recently prepared the comprehensive five-year basic plan (2006-2010) to deal with low fertility and population ageing. The basic plan aims at recovering the fertility rate to the appropriate level and improving the social and economic systems in preparation for the aged society. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of fertility policies on childbirth by birth order. The data came from 1,729 adults who gave birth to babies in 2007 and 991 adults as the control group. The serial logistic regression analyses revealed that establishing the health and nutrition system for maternity and children, and expanding of tax and social insurance benefit were effective policy measures to increase childbirths of first children, while the policy measures establishing the health and nutrition system for maternity and children, supporting for daycare and pre-school education, and work-life balance were effective to childbirths of second or third children in 2007. However, the policies of supporting for costs of test-tube baby and expanding childcare infra didn't have any significant influences on childbirths in 2007. The implications of study results were discussed.

한국 부인의 불임증실태에 관한 고찰 (Study on The Infertility Rate of Korean Women)

  • 홍문식;김택일
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 1982
  • One of the primary objectives of Korean family planning program is to assist parents in having the number of children they want, both by providing fertility-en-hancing services to infecund and subfecund women and by providing fertility-limitation services to fecund women. As far as fertility-enhancing services to infecund and subfecund women is concerned, there has been little effort from the national family planning program, So far, there is no any basic data on infertility prevalence rate among the Korean women. Therefore, an attempt has been made to review data of 1976 and 1978 fertility and family planning surveys in order to estimate the level of infertility rate among the Korean women. In the 1978 survey 3. 7 percent of the current married women responded that they were physically infertile while in the 1976 survey physically infer-tile women was calculated as 3 percent of the total ever married women which is similar level of 1978 data of 3.7 percent. Mean age at first marriage of Korean women is 23 and most of the women are married in the high fecund age. Only 0.3 percent of the respondents married age 30. in addition, the rate of women with no children among the ever married women whose married duration is more than 5 year is very low;2. 5 percent among 5-9 years, 1. 4 percent among 10- 14 years; 1.8 precent among 15-19 years; 1.0 percent among 20-24 years; and 0. 7 percent among 25 or more years of marriage duration. If we consider those data shown above, it is manifest that infertility rate of Korean women is less than 5 percent level which is much lower than the 10 percent level of infertility rate in the United States of America. However, this kind of estimation is still not able to show definite data on fertility rate. Therefore, a nationwide planned survey should be carried out as early as possible to figure out the real situation of infertility rate in Korea.

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Correlations between Sperm Motility, SCSA (Sperm Chromatin Structure Assay), Reproductive Performance and Heterospermic Fertility in Boars

  • Kim, In-Cheul;Ryu, Jae-Weon;Cho, Kyu-Ho;Hong, Joon-Ki;Choi, Eun-Ji;Choi, Bong-Hwan;Park, Jun-Cheol;Moon, Hong-Kil;Son, Jung-Ho
    • Reproductive and Developmental Biology
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study was two folds: to investigate the relationship between paternal identification rate and sperm quality parameters such as motility and sperm chromatin structure assay after heterospermic insemination; to see if mutual complement between tests and development of useful technique to enhance the fertility in artificial insemination. In individual boar's fertilizing ability, 3 high fertility boars showed significantly high fertility (p<0.05) compared to 3 low fertility boars, but there was no difference in litter size between two groups. Sperm motility test in pooled and individual semen using computer assisted sperm analysis (CASA) revealed that no significant difference among boars. The high fertile boar showed tendency of low %Red (High red fluorescence/green+red fluorescence) in sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA) but paternal identification rate from piglets did not differ after heterospermic insemination. The correlation coefficient between individual or pooled semen function test and farrowing rates were well correlated as follows: %Red with litter size (r= - 0.53, p=0.03); %Red with paternal identification rates (r=-0.51, p=0.03); paternal identification rates with litter size (r=0.57, p=0.02). These results indicate that sperm chromatin structure assay and sperm quality parameter test in pooled semen are useful method to predict and evaluate the fertilizing capacity after heterospermic insemination in boars.

논토양 비옥도에 따른 맥류 초종별 생육특성과 수량성 (Growth Characters and Yield of Wheat Species Depend on Soil Fertility in Paddy Field)

  • 주정일;이희봉;한옥규;송태화;지희정
    • 한국초지조사료학회지
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2011
  • 축산농가의 밭 사료포는 농가에 따라 다량의 축분을 시용하는 경우가 있어 농가마다 사료포장의 토양비옥도 차이가 컸다. 따라서 본 시험은 토양 유기물함량의 차이가 총체맥류의 생육 및 수량에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 토양비옥도에 따라 적합한 총체맥류를 선정코자 하였다. 가. 이삭수는 보통지 대비 비옥지에서 증가되는 비율은 삼한귀리> 청우밀> 곡우호밀> 영양보리> 신영트리티케일 순으로 높았고, 척박지에서 감소되는 비율은 영양보리> 곡우호밀 > 청우밀 > 신영트리티케일 > 삼한귀리 순이었다. 전체적으로 토양비옥도에 따른 이삭수의 변화는 신영트리티케일이 다른 총체맥류에 비하여 변화가 적었다. 나. 척박지에서 총체수량이 높은 총체맥류는 신영트리티케일로서 청보리인 영양보리에 비하여 69% 증수되었다. 다. 신영트리티케일이 다른 총체맥류에 비하여 비옥지, 보통지, 척박지 모두 절대적인 건물 수량과 가소화 건물수량이 높았고, 다음은 청우밀이었으며, 곡우호밀이 가장 낮았다. 라. 토양유기물 함량에 따라 가소화건물수량이 증감에 대한 안정성 측면에서 본다면 비옥지에서는 삼한귀리와 영양보리가 증수효과가 다른 총체맥류에 비하여 크게 나타났고, 척박지에서는 신영 트리티케일과 청우밀에서의 감수율이 다른 총체맥류에 비하여 낮았다.

Identification of heat shock protein70-2 and protamine-1 mRNA, proteins, and analyses of their association with fertility using frozen-thawed sperm in Madura bulls

  • Zulfi Nur Amrina Rosyada;Berlin Pandapotan Pardede;Ekayanti Mulyawati Kaiin;Ligaya I.T.A Tumbelaka;Dedy Duryadi Solihin;Bambang Purwantara;Mokhamad Fakhrul Ulum
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제36권12호
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    • pp.1796-1805
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    • 2023
  • Objective: This study aims to identify heat shock protein70-2 (HSP70-2) and protamine-1 (PRM1) mRNA and protein in Madura bull sperm and demonstrate their relation as bull fertility biomarkers. Methods: The Madura bull fertility rates were grouped based on the percentage of first service conception rate (%FSCR) as high fertility (HF) (79.04%; n = 4), and low fertility (LF) (65.84%; n = 4). mRNA of HSP70-2 and PRM1 with peptidylprolyl isomerase A (PPIA) as a housekeeping gene were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, while enzyme-linked immunoassay was used to measure protein abundance. In the post-thawed semen samples, sperm motility, viability, acrosome integrity, and sperm DNA fragmentation index were analyzed. Data analysis was performed on the measured parameters of semen quality, relative mRNA expression, and protein abundance of HSP70-2 and PRM1, among the bulls with various fertility levels (HF and LF) in a one-way analysis of variance analysis. The Pearson correlation was used to analyze the relationship between semen quality, mRNA, proteins, and fertility rate. Results: Relative mRNA expression and protein abundance of HSP70-2 and PRM1 were detected and were found to be highly expressed in bulls with HF (p<0.05) and were associated with several parameters of semen quality. Conclusion: HSP70-2 and PRM1 mRNA and protein molecules have great potential to serve as molecular markers for determining bull fertility.

Effect of Calf Birth Weight on the Subsequent Fertility of Holstein Heifers

  • Lim, Hyun-Joo;Son, Jun-Kyu;Yoon, Ho-Beak;Baek, Kwang-Soo;Kwon, Eung-Gi
    • 한국수정란이식학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.81-85
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    • 2012
  • This study investigated the effect of birth weight on the fertility of Holstein heifers. Growth parameter (body weight) was measured at birth. Calves were analyzed as three subgroups: low (L), average (A) and high (H) birth weight (BW) calves. LBW calves were born 10 kg lighter than HBW calves. Fertility data collected included age at first breeding (AFB), number of services per conception, pregnancy rate to first artificial insemination (AI), and age at first calving (AFC). Primiparous calves in HBW are smaller compared to multiparous cows (18.3% versus 48%). Although not significantly different, LBW offspring appeared to breed faster over the service period compared with the ABW offspring that bred three weeks later on the average. The mean pregnancy rate to first AI for LBW heifers was higher (60%) than ABW (48%) and HBW (45%). HBW cows required more services per conception (2.1) than the LBW (1.7) and ABW (1.9). There were significant differences (p<0.05) in age at first calving among the different calving birth weights. Smaller birth size did not have any subsequent adverse effects on fertility. HBW offspring were more likely or tend to have worse fertility parameters.

기혼여성의 출산의지에 영향을 미치는 요인 연구 (An Analysis of the Effect on Childbirth Will of Married Women)

  • 이소영
    • 가족자원경영과 정책
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.15-30
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    • 2008
  • According to the research taken by the National Statistical Office, the fertility rate of a Korean fertile female is 1.17. This figure is the lowest in the world, and the reduction in the fertility rate over the last 30 years was the biggest in the world. It can be seen as a warning alarm about the effects of a low birth rate and a silver society. Assuming that there are several factors involved in this phenomenon, this study inquired into the attitude towards children, attitude towards nourishing children, attitude towards sex roles and the harmony between the jobs and families of married females, and examined the factors that influence the willingness to give birth. Final 581 copies of the survey questionnaire were used for analysis and the collected data were analysed by SPSS, Pearson's correlation analysis, t-test, ANOVA, and Duncan's Multiple Range Test. Three main conclusions were reached: Firstly, the value variables, such as sex-role attitudes and the preference for work or home, affect the willingness to give birth. Therefore, it can be said that one's values have a significant effect on these variables and the willingness to give birth. Secondly, both working morns and housewives have a strong tendency to give a birth if they are supported on child rearing. Finally, the employment of the married women itself can be a variable that can affect childbirth. In other words, the working hours affect employed married women so as sex-role attitudes, the preference between work and home, ideal number of children, and the income to housewives. Also, even in whole married women, the employment itself can be a major factor of the willingness to have a baby. Therefore, unemployed married women have more of a tendency to have children than employed married women.

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