• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic uncertainty

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Use of Drug-eluting Stents Versus Bare-metal Stents in Korea: A Cost-minimization Analysis Using Population Data

  • Suh, Hae Sun;Song, Hyun Jin;Jang, Eun Jin;Kim, Jung-Sun;Choi, Donghoon;Lee, Sang Moo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: The goal of this study was to perform an economic analysis of a primary stenting with drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admitted through an emergency room (ER) visit in Korea using population-based data. Methods: We employed a cost-minimization method using a decision analytic model with a two-year time period. Model probabilities and costs were obtained from a published systematic review and population-based data from which a retrospective database analysis of the national reimbursement database of Health Insurance Review and Assessment covering 2006 through 2010 was performed. Uncertainty was evaluated using one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: Among 513 979 cases with AMI during 2007 and 2008, 24 742 cases underwent stenting procedures and 20 320 patients admitted through an ER visit with primary stenting were identified in the base model. The transition probabilities of DES-to-DES, DES-to-BMS, DES-to-coronary artery bypass graft, and DES-to-balloon were 59.7%, 0.6%, 4.3%, and 35.3%, respectively, among these patients. The average two-year costs of DES and BMS in 2011 Korean won were 11 065 528 won/person and 9 647 647 won/person, respectively. DES resulted in higher costs than BMS by 1 417 882 won/person. The model was highly sensitive to the probability and costs of having no revascularization. Conclusions: Primary stenting with BMS for AMI with an ER visit was shown to be a cost-saving procedure compared with DES in Korea. Caution is needed when applying this finding to patients with a higher level of severity in health status.

A Study on the Establishment of a Collaboration Relationship between Prime and Subcontractors in Korean Construction Industry - Focused on the Gangwon Area - (건설업 원.하청 기업간 협력관계 구축에 관한 연구 -강원지역을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jin-Bong;Kim, Seon-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2008
  • Recently, a size of the domestic construction industry Has been reduced rapidly, and its economic slump Has been continued with the government real estate stabilization and tax policies. Moreover, as the reconstruction of apartments that has been added high value to the construction companies has been on the stake of high risk with delays of reconstruction start and finance restriction policies, an uncertainty of the construction markets and the competitions between the construction companies has been increased. At this point, the establishment of a collaboration relationship between construction companies has been recognized as one of the methodologies to respond actively on these uncertainties and fierce competitions. A collaboration relationship between construction companies is based on the balanced cooperation relationship for surviving together, and should be maintained on the complement and specialized collaboration between big, middle and small contractors. This paper propose a model of practical collaboration relationship to cooperate together between prime and subcontractors in Korean construction companies based on the analysis of questionnaires to the collaboration status between general and subcontractors in the Gangwon area.

Macroeconomic Buffer Effects of Mega-FTA Formation: A CGE Analysis for Korea

  • Jung, Jae-Won;Kim, Tae-Hwang
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.118-137
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea's mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP. Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea's GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea's GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively. Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.

Analysis of Investment Time for a Residential Photovoltaic Power System in China and Thailand Applying a Real Option Model and SAM Data (Real Option 모형과 SAM데이터를 활용한 중국과 태국의 주거용 태양광 투자 시점 분석)

  • Moon, Yongma
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2019
  • This paper provides economic analysis for a residential photovoltaic (PV) power system of 5 districts in China and Thailand, using SAM (System Advisor Model) data. Unlike existing literature, the analysis is conducted from the investment timing perspective, as applying to a real option model which can incorporate the cost uncertainty of the PV system and a resident's option to delay the investment. This study shows that the gap of optimal investment times between a real option model and a generally used net present value model ranges from about 6 to 14 years. Also, we found a contracting result for a particular district that, while the investment is appropriate according to the net present value model, it is more reasonable to delay the PV system investment in terms of the real option model.

A Study on Development of Climate Change Adaptation in Ecosystem Sector - Focused on Policy and Research Base in Major Countries - (생태분야 기후변화 적응의 흐름과 발전방향 - 국내외 정책 및 연구기반을 중심으로 -)

  • Yeo, Inae;Hong, Seungbum;Park, Eunjin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2019
  • This study aims at deriving the implications for adaptation policy and research target regarding climate change risk assessment in ecosystem sector in Korea. The common ground of exemplary cases of "world leaders" in terms of adaptation policies and researches was that they emphasize nationwide study on climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem in target of establishing scientific evidence-bases and reducing uncertainty for their national adaptation policies and plans. In light of this trend, Korean government should settle down more successful adaptation structure by leading adaptation system in further national policy-settings to observe UNFCCC and CBD integratedly and effectively, considering the economic value of adaptation in policy, and strengthening scientific research programs and technology developments. Moreover, risks assessment based on diagnoses and analysis on the risk factors (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) for climate change in nationwide habitats and species and consolidations with subsequent adaptation strategies could make adaptations in ecosystem sector more effective and successful.

A Study on the Improvement of R&D Tax Support System: Focused on the Tax Credit for Research and Manpower Development Expenses (연구개발 조세지원제도의 개선방안: 연구·인력개발비 세액공제제도를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Sung-Jong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.169-184
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This research is intended to analyze the current status and problems of tax benefits in the R&D sector and suggest ways to improve tax credit for research and manpower development expenses when various countries fiercely develop efforts to enhance national competitiveness through increased investment in R&D Design/methodology/approach - This study will examine the current status of the tax support system for domestic and foreign R&D, and suggest improvement measures to expand research and development activities in the future. Findings - First, a plan may be considered to abolish and perpetuate the sunset deadline for tax credit for research and manpower development expenses as in the case of the United States and Japan. This perpetuation can be a proactive measure to actively support long-term R & D investment in companies facing economic decisions under uncertainty. Second, it should be revised to raise the tax credit rate of large corporations, which are shrinking every year, compared to SMEs, so that both large corporations and SMEs can improve their international competitiveness and secure excellent technologies through R & D. Finally, the target technologies for each new growth engine and source technology should be expanded to various fields, including national cybersecurity enhancement technology, aviation engine technology, carbon emission and global cooling technologies, which are areas of interest in major overseas R&D countries, to help active R&D and investment in these areas. Research implications or Originality - This study can find a contribution in comparing and analyzing the national R&D tax support system and presenting improvement measures at a time when the benefits of tax credit for research and manpower development expenses of large companies are decreasing due to frequent tax law revisions and the government's factors of increasing tax revenues. In addition, recent research and development items and research technologies of foreign countries were analyzed by Nature's top 10 major science and technology issues, and advanced technologies that should be applied to target technology areas by new growth engine and source technology were specifically investigated and presented.

New Normal and Business Sustainability in the Age of Global pandemic

  • Kalam, Abul;Hossain, Md. Alamgir;Jahan, Nusrat;Kim, Minho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This study examines the awareness regarding the symptoms of COVID-19 exposures and safety distances strategies whether they were useful to resile the businesses a mid of the pandemic. Besides exploring the awareness and safety distances, the effectiveness of offering free use of protective equipment (mask, hand sanitizer, frequent hand washing, etc.) to the customers for visiting the business centers was also examined. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 264 survey data in Bangladesh which is one of the most densely populated country and very vulnerable for COVID-19 due to its socio-economic condition. The multiple regression analysis is used to analyze the data. Findings - The findings of the study indicate that the awareness about the symptoms of virus exposures (cough, fever, diarrhea, and weakness) has significant affirmative effects to enhance the public movement for business purposes with the lower possibility to be affected by the virus. The study also indicates that safety distances and protective equipment can mediate the significant positive relationship between the awareness of the disease and the businesses' resilient capacity. Research implications or Originality - COVID-19, as an apprehensive health issue in the current world, has sharpened the uncertainty of the businesses. One essential technique as lockdown, has been followed by almost every country to protect the transmission of the virus even though the scholars criticized it due to the substantial adverse effects on the country's economy. Under this circumstances, this study provides implications to the relevant businesses by assessing the nexus between the safety distances and the proper uses of protective equipment with the business resilient.

Prediction of ship power based on variation in deep feed-forward neural network

  • Lee, June-Beom;Roh, Myung-Il;Kim, Ki-Su
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.641-649
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    • 2021
  • Fuel oil consumption (FOC) must be minimized to determine the economic route of a ship; hence, the ship power must be predicted prior to route planning. For this purpose, a numerical method using test results of a model has been widely used. However, predicting ship power using this method is challenging owing to the uncertainty of the model test. An onboard test should be conducted to solve this problem; however, it requires considerable resources and time. Therefore, in this study, a deep feed-forward neural network (DFN) is used to predict ship power using deep learning methods that involve data pattern recognition. To use data in the DFN, the input data and a label (output of prediction) should be configured. In this study, the input data are configured using ocean environmental data (wave height, wave period, wave direction, wind speed, wind direction, and sea surface temperature) and the ship's operational data (draft, speed, and heading). The ship power is selected as the label. In addition, various treatments have been used to improve the prediction accuracy. First, ocean environmental data related to wind and waves are preprocessed using values relative to the ship's velocity. Second, the structure of the DFN is changed based on the characteristics of the input data. Third, the prediction accuracy is analyzed using a combination comprising five hyperparameters (number of hidden layers, number of hidden nodes, learning rate, dropout, and gradient optimizer). Finally, k-means clustering is performed to analyze the effect of the sea state and ship operational status by categorizing it into several models. The performances of various prediction models are compared and analyzed using the DFN in this study.

Improving the Security Policy Based on Data Value for Defense Innovation with Science and Technology (과학기술 중심 국방혁신을 위한 데이터 가치 기반 보안정책 발전 방향)

  • Heungsoon Park
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2023
  • The future outlook for defense faces various and challenging environments such as the acceleration of uncertainty in the global security landscape and limitations in domestic social and economic conditions. In response, the Ministry of National Defense seeks to address the problems and threats through defense innovation based on scientific and technological advancements such as artificial intelligence, drones, and robots. To introduce advanced AI-based technology, it is essential to integrate and utilize data on IT environments such as cloud and 5G. However, existing traditional security policies face difficulties in data sharing and utilization due to mainly system-oriented security policies and uniform security measures. This study proposes a paradigm shift to a data value-based security policy based on theoretical background on data valuation and life-cycle management. Through this, it is expected to facilitate the implementation of scientific and technological innovations for national defense based on data-based task activation and new technology introduction.

Analysis of Determinants on the Entry Modes of Multinational Firms: Focused on the Effects of Corruption and Political Instability (해외진출 기업 유형의 결정요인 분석: 부패와 정치적 위험 영향을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Jung-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Hwang
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.177-197
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    • 2018
  • This paper aims to analyze the effects of external uncertainty on the entry modes decision of multinational firms. On the basic assumption that the entry modes of the firms are dependent on ex-ante or ex-post perceived risk, we empirically analyzed the impacts of perceived risk factors on the investment patterns of firms. We found that the larger the population, the higher the level of GDP per capita, and the larger the trade volume as a ratio of GDP resulted in increased M&A FDI and greenfield FDI. The economic growth rate variables were found to be significantly positive effect on only greenfield entry mode. Regarding the main variables, lower levels of corruption and increased stability regarding political issues resulted in the host country receiving increased M&A investment. However, we found only a positive statistical significance of the political stability variable on the explaining greenfield FDI. Results show that M&A entry mode is affected by both corruption and political instability level. However, the greenfield FDI featuring sunk costs, seems more responsive to political instability.

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