• Title/Summary/Keyword: Water level prediction

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Case study on flood water level prediction accuracy of LSTM model according to condition of reference hydrological station combination (참조 수문관측소 구성 조건에 따른 LSTM 모형 홍수위예측 정확도 검토 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Kim, Sooyoung;Jung, Jaewon;Yoon, Kwang Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.981-992
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    • 2023
  • Due to recent global climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing as rainfall is concentrated and its intensity increases. Rain on a scale that has not been observed in the past may fall, and long-term rainy seasons that have not been recorded may occur. These damages are also concentrated in ASEAN countries, and many people in ASEAN countries are affected, along with frequent occurrences of flooding due to typhoons and torrential rains. In particular, the Bandung region which is located in the Upper Chitarum River basin in Indonesia has topographical characteristics in the form of a basin, making it very vulnerable to flooding. Accordingly, through the Official Development Assistance (ODA), a flood forecasting and warning system was established for the Upper Citarium River basin in 2017 and is currently in operation. Nevertheless, the Upper Citarium River basin is still exposed to the risk of human and property damage in the event of a flood, so efforts to reduce damage through fast and accurate flood forecasting are continuously needed. Therefore, in this study an artificial intelligence-based river flood water level forecasting model for Dayeu Kolot as a target station was developed by using 10-minute hydrological data from 4 rainfall stations and 1 water level station. Using 10-minute hydrological observation data from 6 stations from January 2017 to January 2021, learning, verification, and testing were performed for lead time such as 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hour and LSTM was applied as an artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, good results were shown in model fit and error for all lead times, and as a result of reviewing the prediction accuracy according to the learning dataset conditions, it is expected to be used to build an efficient artificial intelligence-based model as it secures prediction accuracy similar to that of using all observation stations even when there are few reference stations.

Analyses of Hydrology and Groundwater Level Fluctuation in Granite Aquifer with Tunnel Excavation (터널 굴착에 의한 화강암 대수층의 수리 수문 및 지하수위변동 분석)

  • Chung, Sang-Yong;Kim, Byung-Woo;Kang, Dong-Hwan;Shim, Byoung-Ohan;Cheong, Sang-Won
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.643-653
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    • 2007
  • Average hydraulic conductivity was $2.64{\times}10^{-8}m/sec$ average RQD was 78%, average porosity was 0.51%, and range of groundwater level was $77.06{\sim}125.97m$ by measured in 8 boreholes at the Surak Mt. tunnel area. Groundwater level of two peaks in the Surak Mt. tunnel area were estimated through linear regression analysis for groundwater level versus elevation. And, average horizontal hydraulic gradient in the Surak Mt. tunnel area was calculated 0.267. Minimum, maximum, and average hydraulic conductivities that estimated by field tests were $5.56{\times}10^{-9}m/sec,\;6.12{\times}10^{-8}m/sec,\;and\;2.64{\times}10^{-8}m/sec$, respectively. Groundwater discharge rates per 1 meter that estimated using minimum, maximum, and average hydraulic conductivities and average horizontal hydraulic gradient were $0.00585m^2/day,\;0.06434m^2/day,\;and\;0.02775m^2/day$, respectively. Pure groundwater recharge rate per unit recharge area was calculated 223.96 mm/yr through water balance analysis. Prediction simulation of groundwater level fluctuation with minimum, maximum, and average hydraulic conductivities were conducted. Discharge rate into the Surak Mt. tunnel for minimum hydraulic conductivity was small, but groundwaer drawdown was highly. Discharge rate into the Surak Mt. tunnel for maximum hydraulic conductivity was higher, but groundwaer level was recovered quickly.

Prediction MOdels for Channel Bed Evolution Due to Short Term Floods (단기간의 홍수에 의한 하상변동의 예측모형)

  • Pyo, Yeong-Pyeong;Sin, Cheol-Sik;Bae, Yeol-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.597-610
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    • 1997
  • One-dimensional numerical models using finite difference methods for unsteady sediment transport on alluvial river channel are developed. The Preissmann implicit scheme and the Lax-Wendroff two-step explicit scheme with the Method of Characteristics for water motion and a forward time centered space explicit scheme for sediment motion are developed to simulate the sediment transport rate and the variation of channel bed level. The program correctness of each model is successfully verified using volume conservation tests. The sensitivity studies show that higher peak stage level, steeper channel slope and longer flooding duration produce more channel bed erosion. and median grain size, $D_{50}=0.4mm$ give maximum volume loss in this study. Finally, the numerical models are found to produce reasonable results from the various sensitivity tests which reveal that the numerical models have properly responded to the changes of each model parameter.

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Prediction of Reservoir Sedimentation Patterns Using a Two-Dimensional Transport Model (2차원 유사운송모형을 이용한 저수지 퇴적분포유형의 추정)

  • 이봉훈;박창헌;박승우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 1993
  • The sedimentation patterns at a reservoir, important to the reservoir capacity curve were simulated using a depth averaged, two-dimensional sediment transport model, that is capable of depicting velocity distributions and sediment transportation. The Banweol reservoir, whose stage capacity relationships have been surveyed before and after the construction, was selected and the daily inflow rates and stages were simulated using a reservoir operation model(DI-ROM). The applicability of the transport model was tested from the comparisons of simulated sedimentation patterns to the surveyed results. The simulated inflow rates and water level fluctuations at the reservoir during twenty-one years from 1966 to 1986, showed that water levels exceeding 80 percent of the total capacity occurred for 70 percent of the periods and inflow rates less than 5000rn$^3$/day sustained for 54 percent of the spans. Dorminant flow directions were simulated from two streamflow inlets to the dam site. And simulated sediment concentrations were higher near the inlets and lower at the inside of the reservoir. Sediment was deposited heavily near the inlets, and portions of sediments were distributed along the flow paths within the reservoir. The comparisons between the simulation results and the surveyed depositions were partially matched. However, it was not possible to compare two results at the upper parts of the reservoir where dredging was carried out few times for the purpose of reservoir maintenance. This study demonstrates that sedimentation patterns within the reservoir are closely related to incoming sediment and flow rates, water level fluctuations, and flow circulation within the reservoir.

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Effect of Airborne Noise from Ship Machinery on Underwater Noise (선박의 장비 공기소음이 수중소음에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sil;Kim, Jae-Seung;Kim, Bong-Ki;Kim, Sang-Ryul;Lee, Seong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.569-574
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    • 2011
  • In research vessels or naval ships, airborne noise from machineries such as diesel engine is the major source of underwater noise at low speed. In this paper, effect of engine noise on underwater noise is studied by considering two paths; sound radiation from hull plate and direct airborne noise transmission through hull plate. SEA (Statistical energy analysis) is used to predict hull plate vibration induced by engine noise, where SEA model consists of only two subsystems; engine room air space and hull plate. The pressure level in water is calculated from sound radiation by plate. Engine noise transmission through hull plate is obtained by assuming plane wave propagation in air-limp plate-water system. Two effects are combined and compared to the measurement, where speaker is used as a source in engine room and sound pressure levels in engine room and water are measured. The hydrophone is located 1 m away from the hull plate. It is found below 1000 Hz, prediction overestimates underwater sound pressure level by 5 to 12 dB.

Development of groundwater level monitoring and forecasting technique for drought analysis (II) - Groundwater drought forecasting Using SPI, SGI and ANN (가뭄 분석을 위한 지하수위 모니터링 및 예측기법 개발(II) - 표준강수지수, 표준지하수지수 및 인공신경망을 이용한 지하수 가뭄 예측)

  • Lee, Jeongju;Kang, Shinuk;Kim, Taeho;Chun, Gunil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1021-1029
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    • 2018
  • A primary objective of this study is to develop a drought forecasting technique based on groundwater which can be exploit for water supply under drought stress. For this purpose, we explored the lagged relationships between regionalized SGI (standardized groundwater level index) and SPI (standardized precipitation index) in view of the drought propagation. A regional prediction model was constructed using a NARX (nonlinear autoregressive exogenous) artificial neural network model which can effectively capture nonlinear relationships with the lagged independent variable. During the training phase, model performance in terms of correlation coefficient was found to be satisfactory with the correlation coefficient over 0.7. Moreover, the model performance was described by root mean squared error (RMSE). It can be concluded that the proposed approach is able to provide a reliable SGI forecasts along with rainfall forecasts provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration.

Prediction of Long-Term River Bed Changes in Saemangeum Area (새만금지구 장기 하상변동 예측)

  • Jung, Jae-Sang;Song, Hyun Ku;Lee, Jong Sup;Kim, Gweon Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.394-398
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    • 2016
  • Numerical analysis was conducted using Delft3D developed by Deltares in Netherlands to predict long-term river bed changes in Saemangeum Area. Tidal flow, discharge through the drainage gates and river bed changes in numerical model was verified by comparing to the results of field observation and hydraulic experiments. We calculated long-term river bed changes in Saemangeum area for 10 years from 2031 to 2040 after completion of development in Saemangeum. It is shown that 70 cm and 139 cm of accumulation occur in estuaries of Dongjin River and Mankyong River, respectively. Variation of flood level was also investigated considering long-term river bed changes. There was no change in estuary of Dongjin River but maximum flood level in estuary of Mankyong River increased 81 cm.

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Development of an Integrated Forecasting and Warning System for Abrupt Natural Disaster using rainfall prediction data and Ubiquitous Sensor Network(USN) (농촌지역 돌발재해 피해 경감을 위한 USN기반 통합예경보시스템 (ANSIM)의 개발)

  • Bae, Seung-Jong;Bae, Won-Gil;Bae, Yeon-Joung;Kim, Seong-Pil;Kim, Soo-Jin;Seo, Il-Hwan;Seo, Seung-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2015
  • The objectives of this research have been focussed on 1) developing prediction techniques for the flash flood and landslide based on rainfall prediction data in agricultural area and 2) developing an integrated forecasting system for the abrupt disasters using USN based real-time disaster sensing techniques. This study contains following steps to achieve the objective; 1) selecting rainfall prediction data, 2) constructing prediction techniques for flash flood and landslide, 3) developing USN and communication network protocol for detecting the abrupt disaster suitable for rural area, & 4) developing mobile application and SMS based early warning service system for local resident and tourist. Local prediction model (LDAPS, UM1.5km) supported by Korean meteorological administration was used for the rainfall prediction by considering spatial and temporal resolution. NRCS TR-20 and infinite slope stability analysis model were used to predict flash flood and landslide. There are limitations in terms of communication distance and cost using Zigbee and CDMA which have been used for existing disaster sensors. Rural suitable sensor-network module for water level and tilting gauge and gateway based on proprietary RF network were developed by consideration of low-cost, low-power, and long-distance for communication suitable for rural condition. SMS & mobile application forecasting & alarming system for local resident and tourist was set up for minimizing damage on the critical regions for abrupt disaster. The developed H/W & S/W for integrated abrupt disaster forecasting & alarming system was verified by field application.

A Study on Safety Blasting Design with Blast Vibration Analysis Urban Area (도심지 미진동 제어 발파에서 진동분석을 통한 안전발파설계에 관한 연구)

  • 안명석;박종남;배상근
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.36-44
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    • 1999
  • A study was made on the design of the prediction model concerning blasting vibration in a constraction site, Namgu, Daegu City. The geology in this area consists of hornfels of shale and mud underlain by quartize, of which the main strike of the geological structure is NW direction. Measurements were carried out on the top of the wall concrete water storage tank, which is burried in the ground earth. The attenuation due to the vertical wall of the concrete structure may be experted because of spherical divergency at the bottom corner of the wall by the Huygens principle. For design of blasting prediction model, thus among scaled distance(SD) may be preferable to use in the regression model, since they represents most likely the average ground condition. Judging from the regression results, the cube root method may be more suitable for this area. The SD values for the maximum allowable vibration velocity of 0.5 cm/s, in this area are 22.5, 28.0 and 30.6 for the significance level of 50%, 95% and 99%, respectively.

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A Study on Scenario-based Urban Flood Prediction using G2D Flood Analysis Model (G2D 침수해석 모형을 이용한 시나리오 기반 도시 침수예측 연구)

  • Hui-Seong Noh;Ki-Hong Park
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.488-494
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, scenario-based urban flood prediction for the entire Jinju city was performed, and a simulation domain was constructed using G2D as a 2-dimensional urban flood analysis model. The domain configuration is DEM, and the land cover map is used to set the roughness coefficient for each grid. The input data of the model are water level, water depth and flow rate. In the simulation of the built G2D model, virtual rainfall (3 mm/10 min rainfall given to all grids for 5 hours) and virtual flow were applied. And, a GPU acceleration technique was applied to determine whether to run the flood analysis model in the target area. As a result of the simulation, it was confirmed that the high-resolution flood analysis time was significantly shortened and the flood depth for visual flood judgment could be created for each simulation time.