• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.93-112
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• 1998

In the present study, 2-D consolidation theory of the dredged clay by means of the horizontal drain method is proposed. The horizontal drain method to install the drains such as plastic drain board within the dredged clay is a soil improvement method to accelerate the consolidation by expelling pore water in the vertical direction along the horizontal drains. Based on the finite strain consolidation theory by Gibson et al., the partial differential equation of 2-D consolidation due to the horizontal drain is derived. The consolidation due to the horizontal drain can be illustrated from combined self-weight consolidation effect and consolidation effect by horizontal drains. For the prediction of consolidation settlement and degree of consolidation numerical analysis is suggested on the basis of Dufort-Frankel finite differential algorithm. Also, the analytical procedures proposed in this study are verified by the model tests, and the predictions of the consolidation settlement and degree of consolidation are compared with the results obtained from the tests for the dredged clay gathering at Siwha site in Ansan, Korea. For the predictions, the relationship void ratio vs effective stress and the relationship permeability vs void ratio of the dredged clay are obtained from the odometer tests. Additionally, the parametric study for consolidation settlement by variations of design parameters related with horizontal drain method is carried out. Based on the results of the parametric study, design .charts for the preliminary design are also proposed.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.35 no.10
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• pp.47-66
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• 2019

A parametric numerical analysis according to diameter, length, and N values of soil was conducted for the PHC pile socketed into weathered rock through sandy soil layers. In the numerical analysis, the Mohr-Coulomb model was applied to PHC pile and soils, and the contacted phases among the pile-soil-cement paste were modeled as interfaces with a virtual thickness. The parametric numerical analyses for 10 kinds of pile diameters were executed to obtain the load-settlement relationship and the axial load distribution according to N-values. The load-settlement curves were obtained for each load such as total load, total skin friction, skin friction of the sandy soil layer, skin friction of the weathered rock layer and end bearing resistance of the weathered rock. As a result of analysis of various load levels from the load-settlement curves, the settlements corresponding to the inflection point of each curve were appeared as about 5~7% of each pile diameter and were estimated conservatively as 5% of each pile diameter. The load at the inflection point was defined as the mobilized bearing capacity ($Q_m$) and it was used in analyses of pile bearing capacity. And SRF was appeared above average 70%, irrespective of diameter, embedment length of pile and N value of sandy soil layer. Also, skin frictional resistance of sandy soil layers was evaluated above average 80% of total skin frictional resistance. These results can be used in calculating the bearing capacity of prebored PHC pile, and also be utilized in developing the bearing capacity prediction method and chart for the prebored PHC pile socketed into weathered rock through sandy soil layers.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.476-485
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to present an analysis method for the prediction of the change of ground conditions. To this end, three-dimensional convergence displacements is analyzed in several ways to estimate the trend of displacement change. Three-dimensional arching effect is occurred around the unsupported excavation surface including tunnel face when a tunnel is excavated in a stable rock mass. If the ground condition ahead of tunnel face changes or a weak fracture zone exists a specific trend of displacement change is known to be occurred from the results of the existing researches. The existence of a discontinuity, whose change in front of the tunnel face, can be predicted from the ratio of L/C (longitudinal displacement at crown divided by settlement at crown) etc. Therefore, the change of ground condition and the existence of a fracture zone ahead of tunnel face can be predicted by monitoring three-dimensional absolute displacements during excavation, and applying the methodology presented in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.27 no.9
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• pp.37-46
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• 2011

The compression index, which represents the compressibility of clay, is generally obtained from the consolidation test, or has been predicted by empirical correlations with soil properties. In this study, the results of consolidation tests on natural and reconstituted Busan and Inchon clays are analyzed to figure out the sedimentation state and its effect on empirical correlations. Results of analysis show that the void index of Busan clay is higher than SCL while the void index of Inchon clay is lower than SCL. By comparing prediction errors with ${\Delta}e_r$, which represents the sedimentation state of clay, it is shown that errors predicting the compressibility based on the liquid limit and plasticity index decrease as ${\Delta}e_r$ increases. Supplemented correlations predicting the compression index of Busan and Inchon clays are suggested using these relationships.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.127-136
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• 1996

Recently, EPS which has unit weight of only 20~30kg/m3, is used for acquiring the safety of settlement and bearing capacity, In Korea, EPS was first used in 1993 as backfill material for abutment that was constructed on soft ground in Inchon. Since then EPS has been used increasingly as backfill material. However, adequate modelling has not yet been proposed for the prediction of the behavior of EPS. Only it's design strength was proposed as the results of unconfined strength and creep test. Accordingly this paper executed triaxial compression test on EPS with various density and confining pressure. Through the analysis of test data the behavior of EPS for strainstress, tangential modulus and poisson's ratio can be expressed in functions with parameters of density and confining pressure of EPS. From these results, this paper proposed a nonliner model describing the behavior of EPS.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.21-30
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• 2012

This paper analyzes the map of soil contamination in years of 2009 by actual survey in Incheon. South-east national industrial complex and the US Army base in Bu-Pyung are turned out to be high polluted area because spilling of oil storage facilities, vehicle and glass industries. So, the soil contamination in Incheon Metropolitan area will be getting more attention. To solve this problem, the soil contamination has been predicted by using the visual Sufer and visual Modflow which are analysis program in geotechnique and water flow. The result of analysis is that F and TPH will be retarded after 5 years. However, the contamination diffusion will be increased if there is no proper management of soil contamination.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.75-84
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• 2004

Stone column is one of the soft ground improvement method, which can enhance ground conditions such as the settlement reduction and the increasement of bearing capacity with applying the crushed stone instead of sand. In recent, general construction material, sand is in short of supply. Therefore, the bearing capacity improvement by the stone column is considered as the alternative method needed in many cases so the bearing capacity estimation is considered as important point. Nevertheless, adequate estimation methods to predict bearing capacity of stone column considering stone column and improvement effect of ground is not yet prepared. For the analysis of above mentioned points, the behavior of stone column were simulated as numerically on various property cases of crushed stone and surrounded ground. Through the numerical analysis of simulation results, the formula for the bearing capacity estimation of stone column was suggested. This formula was verified by comparing the prediction result of in situ test.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.267-278
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• 2003

Artificial neural networks are efficient computing techniques that are widely used to solve complex problems in many fields. In this study, in order to predict tunnel-induced ground movements, Tunnel Behavior Prediction System (TBPS) was developed by using these artificial neural networks model, based on a Held instrumentation database (i.e. crown settlement, convergence, axial force of rock bolt, compressive and shear stress of shotcrete, stress of concrete lining etc.) obtained from 193 location data of 31 different tunnel sites where works are completed. The study and test of the network were performed by Back Propagation Algorithm which is known as a systematic technique for studying the multi-layer artificial neural network. The tunnel behaviors predicted by TBPS were compared with monitored data in the tunnel sites and numerical analysis results. This study showed that the values obtained from TBPS were within allowable limits. It is concluded that this system can effectively estimate the tunnel ground movements and can also be used f3r tunneling feasibility study, and basic and detailed design and construction of tunnel.

• Interaction and multiscale mechanics
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.211-228
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• 2012

This paper reports the development of a generalized inverse analysis formulation for the parameter estimation of four-parameter Burger model. The analysis is carried out by formulating the problem as a mathematical programming formulation in terms of identification of the design vector, the objective function and the design constraints. Thereafter, the formulated constrained nonlinear multivariable problem is solved with the aid of fmincon: an in-built constrained optimization solver module available in MatLab. In order to gain experience, a synthetic case-study is considered wherein key issues such as the determination and setting up of variable bounds, global optimality of the solution and minimum number of data-points required for prediction of parameters is addressed. The results reveal that the developed technique is quite efficient in predicting the model parameters. The best result is obtained when the design variables are subjected to a lower bound without any upper bound. Global optimality of the solution is achieved using the developed technique. A minimum of 4-5 randomly selected data-points are required to achieve the optimal solution. The above technique has also been adopted for real-time settlement of four oil refineries with encouraging results.