• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2014년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.90-91
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• 2014

Previous research related to the construction schedule management has focused on construction schedule categorization, construction schedule management, and system development to manage construction schedule risks. Therefore this research present quantitively deducing method for managing construction schedule risk. Based on the investigation, this study suggested the probable risk factors and a practical management method, through interviews and discussions with experts. The quantified risks should be adapted for an individually specific projects and managed until the project is complete. To maintain the continuity of schedule risks, the schedule risk management procedures should be controlled during the performance of the construction project.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1334-1339
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• 2009

To achieve the best performance of a project, uncertainties involved in the building construction process need to be identified in the planning phase of the project. Uncertainties seldom create a positive impact on construction project, but they almost cause delay and increase costs. Therefore, risk management plays a significant role in construction to minimize risk occurred due to uncertainties of a project. Although the importance of the risk management has been known to the construction industry, it is not enough to be developed to meet the demands of the industry. It has not been enough for Systems to control schedule risks for managers in the field. Therefore, a tool is necessary to efficiently control risks. The propose of this study is to invent Schedule Risk Control System Module to prepare for risks in preconstruction phase.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2016

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.177-185
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• 2005

건축공사에서의 리스크 관리자들은 전체 공기에 영향을 미치는 공정리스크 관리에 대한 중요성에 대해 공감하고 있지만 그 에 대한관리 절차 및 도구 등이 체계화되어 있지 않아 공정관리에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 또한 기존의 리스크 관련 연구에서의 리스크 분류체계는 현장업무 중심으로 이루어지지 않아 실용화되기에 한계가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 전체 공정에 많은 영향을 미치는 철골공사를 대상으로 공사 프로세스 중심의 리스크 분류체계와 주요 공정 리스크 요인과 연계한 업무 플로우를 제시하였고, 공정리스크 관리업무의 효율성을 제고하기 위해 공정리스크 중요도를 분석하였으며, 이를 기반으로 공정 리스크 요인별 대응방안 및 세부대책으로 이루어진 공정 리스크 관리 도구를 개발하였다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2012년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.143-144
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• 2012

A number of construction projects tied to the concerns and decision-making is also very complicated. In addition, more than any other industry, is inherent in many risk factors. In the course of the construction project on risk factors that exist in the early stages of project risk factors to predict in advance and prepare a project by shortening the construction period and project cost as you can to maximize performance. In this study, I proposed risk management processes and how they are used in web-based schedule risk in the process of change management system, and between 3D CAD, 4D CAD taking into account the linkages, risk management strategy process in the BIM environment.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2006년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.105-110
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• 2006

건설공사에서 발생하는 리스크는 시공단계에 많이 발생하므로 공정관리와 통합하여 관리할 수 있다면 효율적일 것이다. 본 연구에서는 공정관리 프로그램을 이용하여 공정리스크를 통합관리하는 방법을 제안하고 있다. 제안된 방법은 사용자 프로그래밍(Visual Basic Application)이 가능한 Microsoft Project에서 구현되었으며, 공사관리자가 공정표를 작성하고 일정관리를 수행하는 과정에서 리스크를 예측하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.385-394
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• 2018

오피스 건축물의 리모델링 사업에서, 신축과는 다른 리모델링 사업의 다양한 리스크로 인해 공기가 지연되는 사례가 빈번하게 보고되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 리모델링 프로젝트의 리스크 요인들과 리모델링 공사의 작업별 공기지연 발생가능성의 관계를 분석하고자 수행되었다. 리모델링 사업의 경험이 있는 29명의 전문가 면담결과의 과학적 통계적 분석을 통해, 리모델링 사업의 리스크 요인과 그로 인한 작업별 공기지연 가능성을 크게 3가지 측면에서 분석하였다. 즉, (i) 리모델링 공사의 작업별 공기지연 가능성, (ii) 리모델링 공사의 리스크 요인별 중요도, (iii) 리모델링 공사의 공기지연에 영향을 미치는 리스크 요인 등 세가지 분석결과를 제시하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.459-466
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• 2013

Risk exists in all construction projects and resides among the collection of subcontractors and their array of individual activities. Wherever risk resides, the interrelation of participants to one another becomes paramount for the way in which risk is measured. Inherent risk becomes recognizable and quantifiable within network schedules in the form of consuming float - the flexibility to absorb delays. Allocating, owning, valuing, and expending such float in network schedules has been debated since the inception of the critical path method itself. This research investigates the foundational element of a three-part approach that examines how float can be traded as a commodity, a concept whose promise remains unfulfilled for lack of a holistic approach. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of financial portfolio theory, which describes the relationship between risk and expected return of individual stocks, is explored as an analogy to quantify the inherent risk of the participants in construction projects. The inherent relationship between them and their impact on overall schedule performance, defined as schedule risk -the likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of such failure, is matched with the use of CAPM's beta component - the risk correlation measure of an individual stock to that of the entire market - to determine parallels with respect to the inner workings and risks represented by each entity or activity within a schedule. This correlation is the initial theoretical extension that is required to identify where risk resides within construction projects, allocate and commoditize it, and achieve actual tradability.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.119-127
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• 2005

최근의 건설시장 축소와 주 5일 근무제도, 공기단축형 입찰제도의 도입, 후분양제도의 도입 등의 제도적 변화에 따라 건설 수주 경쟁은 더욱 치열해지고 있다. 그러나 건설공사는 공기지 연을 유발하는 수많은 공정리스크가 존재하고 있으며 이러한 공정리스크에 대한 인식과 그에 따른 체계적인 관리가 부진한 경우 건설공사의 경쟁력을 확보하는 데 여러 어려움이 존재한다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위한 기존 연구는 공정리스크의 분류, 공정 리스크의 관리, 리스크 관리를 위한 시스템 개발에 치중하였다. 이에 본 연구는 전체 공정에 영향력이 크며, 위험발생 확률이 높은 철근콘크리트공사를 대상공종으로 선정하고 기존연구를 바탕으로 수차례의 전문가 면담과 난상토론을 실시하여 현실적인 리스크 요인과 관리방안을 제시하였다.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.21-34
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• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.