• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.585-592
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• 2017

Most sewer lines buried in the city are likely to be collapsed due to serious aging. Also, due to the high concentration of development and high population density and traffic, the collapse of the sewer will cause enormous social and economic damage. Therefore, proactive maintenance is required to prevent accidents caused by deteriorated sewer pipe. In order to utilize limited budget effectively, risk-based prioritization methods should be proposed that simultaneously consider the consequence of failure and the probability of failure. In this study, the method of risk-based prioritization of sewer was examined by reviewing various cases of overseas studies and applied to the urban sub-catchment. First, the impact factors that can be secured through the sewer GIS DB in Seoul were derived, and the weight, sub-criteria, and impact score of each impact factor were determined and the consequence of failure was calculated by weight sum method. In addition, the probability of failure was calculated by dividing the service life by the estimated useful life, and the consequence of failure and the probability of failure were classified into five grades by the Jenks natural breaks classification method. The prioritization method was applied to sub-catchment in the Seoul to derive a risk matrix and a risk grade. As a result, 26% of all subjects were selected as the inspection priority subjects with 4-5 risk grade. Therefore, using the risk-based CCTV prioritization methodology, it will be possible to systematically determine the objects that need investigation first.

• Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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• v.50 no.6
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• pp.379-391
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• 2020

Purpose: The aims of this study were to evaluate the 5-year cumulative survival rate (CSR) of implants placed with guided bone regeneration (GBR) compared to implants placed in native bone, and to identify factors contributing to implant failure in regenerated bone. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 240 patients who had implant placement either with a GBR procedure (regenerated bone group) or with pristine bone (native bone group). Data on demographic features (age, sex, smoking, and medical history), location of the implant, implant-specific features, and grafting procedures and materials were collected. The 5-year CSRs in both groups were estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk factors for implant failure were analyzed with a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: In total, 264 implants in the native bone group and 133 implants in the regenerated bone group were analyzed. The 5-year CSRs were 96.4% in the regenerated bone group and 97.5% in the native bone group, which was not a significant difference. The multivariable analysis confirmed that bone status was not an independent risk factor for implant failure. However, smoking significantly increased the failure rate (hazard ratio, 10.7; P=0.002). Conclusions: The 5-year CSR of implants placed in regenerated bone using GBR was comparable to that of implants placed in native bone. Smoking significantly increased the risk of implant failure in both groups.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.8 s.169
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• pp.659-668
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• 2006

The uncertainty of the risk of failure of hydraulic structures can be determined by estimating the variance of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood assuming that the underlying model is the Gumbel distribution. In this paper, the variance of the risk of failure was derived. Monte Carlo simulation was peformed to verify the characteristics of the derived formulas for various sample size, design life, nonexceedance probability, and variation coefficient. As the results, PWM showed the smallest relative bias and root mean square error than the others while ML showed the smallest ones for relatively large sample siBes regardless of design life and nonexceedance probability. Also, it was found that variation coefficient does not effect on the relative bias and relative root mean square error.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.21 no.6 s.78
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• pp.74-81
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• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method(RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.289-300
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• 2020

Estimating the damage induced by an explosion around a blast hole has always been a challenging issue in geotechnical engineering. It is difficult to determine an exact dimension for damage zone since many parameters are involved in the formation of failures, and there are some uncertainties lying in these parameters. Thus, the present study adopted a probabilistic approach towards this problem. First, a reliability model of the problem was established and the failure probability of induced damage was calculated. Then, the corresponding exceedance risk curve was developed indicating the relation between the failure probability and the cracked zone radius. The obtained risk curve indicated that the failure probability drops dramatically by increasing the cracked zone radius so that the probability of exceedance for any crack length greater than 4.5 m is less than 5%. Moreover, the effect of each parameter involved in the probability of failure, including blast hole radius, explosive density, detonation velocity, and tensile strength of the rock, was evaluated by using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the impact of the decoupling ratio on the reduction of failures was investigated and the location of its maximum influence was demonstrated around the blast point.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.194-200
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• 2011

Objectives: Stressors in nursing put high demands on cognitive control and, therefore, may increase the risk of cognitive failures that put patients at risk. Task-related stressors were expected to be positively associated with cognitive failure at work and job control was expected to be negatively associated with cognitive failure at work. Methods: Ninety-six registered nurses from 11 Swiss hospitals were investigated (89 women, 7 men, mean age = 36 years, standard deviation = 12 years, 80% supervisors, response rate 48%). A new German version of the Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) was employed to assess failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action exertion. In linear regression analyses, WCFS was related to work characteristics, neuroticism, and conscientiousness. Results: The German WCFS was valid and reliable. The factorial structure of the original WCF could be replicated. Multilevel regression task-related stressors and conscientiousness were significantly related to attention control and action exertion. Conclusion: The study sheds light on the association between job characteristics and work-related cognitive failure. These associations were unique, i.e. associations were shown even when individual differences in conscientiousness and neuroticism were controlled for. A job redesign in nursing should address task stressors.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.179-187
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• 2003

This study investigate the reasons of organizational failure in detection and appropriate response to risk signal. The Crisis does not come true suddenly, there is some risk signals in crisis. If Organization detect the risk signals the crisis is come true opportunities, if not the crisis is come true disastrous outcome. This is use the system dynamics approach. System Dynamics assume the system as a collection of causal feedback loop, so we understand the dynamics around the problems. This investigate suggest that, the focus on growth is the a kind of promotional pressure and the pressure drive the organization to less attention the risk signal, so the risk is underestimate In proportion to real risk. Ultimate, the organization entrap the promotional climate and insensible to security. This study is a kind of hypothesis-discovering research, in the further study, the discovered hypothesis will be empirically tested.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.665-676
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this paper proposes an effective and systematic methods of risk management in product development project. Methods: This paper first discusses what risk factors be considered during product development period and then presented a model for preventive risk management. For that, this paper proposes how to evaluate the risk factors and risk events, and how to select prevention action for managing risk factors effectively. For this process, this paper uses well-known quality tools such as House of Quality (HOQ) and Failure Mode and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) methods. Results: There is an inherent need for the development of robust risk management framework in order for product development projects to be successful. The identification and quantification of risk factors, risk events, and prevention actions can have significant effects on the success of a product development projects. Project managers can implement the proposed model to improve project success. Conclusion: The findings showed that this method would be effective for project managements in dealing with risk management issues in product development projects. This method presented would be an one of good guidelines for practitioners in the industry.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.1237-1243
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• 2005

International construction projects are exposed to various and complicated risk factors stemming from different political, economical, social, and cultural backgrounds, which make contractors entering into international construction to experience severe losses. It implies that overseas markets do not necessarily secure the high return, which is typically expected to in the high risky attempts. Accordingly, contractors need to evaluate various risk factors faced with overseas construction projects that can possibly aggravate the profitability. This paper aims at establishing a valid groundwork for further research on developing the integrated risk management model. For this end, it analyzes the long-term trend of profitability on total of 3,487 projects performed by Korean global contractors in world-wide construction markets during the last four decades. Then, it investigates the possible factors/causes of bad profit that have affected the profitability significantly through the structured surveys of 90 real overseas projects based on the project-specific information and experiences of Korean contractors in overseas markets. Furthermore, it analyzes relative importance of these factors/causes and identifies the important features expected for the risk management of international construction projects. Finally, vital distinctions between success and failure projects and lessons learned to improve profitability are then distilled.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.155-165
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• 2016

Pipe Deterioration Prediction (PDP) and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models were developed in an attempt to predict the deterioration and failure risk in water mains using fuzzy technique and the markov process. These two models were used to determine the priority in repair and replacement, by predicting the deterioration degree, deterioration rate, failure possibility and remaining life in a study sample comprising 32 water mains. From an analysis approach based on conservative risk with a medium policy risk, the remaining life for 30 of the 32 water mains was less than 5 years for 2 mains (7%), 5-10 years for 8 (27%), 10-15 years for 7 (23%), 15-20 years for 5 (17%), 20-25 years for 5 (17%), and 25 years or more for 2 (7%).