• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of variables

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Analysis of Regional Antecedent Wetness Conditions Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture and Point Scale Rainfall Data (위성토양수분과 지점강우량을 이용한 지역 선행습윤조건 분석)

  • Sunwoo, Wooyeon;Kim, Daeun;Hwang, Seokhwan;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.587-596
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    • 2014
  • Soil moisture is one of the most important interests in hydrological response and the interaction between the land surface and atmosphere. Estimation of Antecedent Wetness Conditions (AWC) which is soil moisture condition prior to a rainfall in the basin should be considered for rainfall-runoff prediction. In this study, Soil Wetness Index (SWI), Antecedent Precipitation Index ($API_5$), remotely sensed Soil Moisture ($SM_{rs}$), and 5 days ground Soil Moisture ($SM_{g5}$) were selected to estimate the AWC at four study area in the Korean Peninsula. The remotely sensed soil moisture data were taken from the AMSR-E soil moisture archive. The maximum potential retention ($S_{obs}$) was obtained from direct runoff and rainfall using Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method by rainfall data of 2011 for each study area. Results showed the great correlations between the maximum potential retention and SWI with a mean correlation coefficient which is equal to -0.73. The results of time length representing the time scale of soil moisture showed a gap from region to region. It was due to the differences of soil types and the characteristics of study area. Since the remotely sensed soil moisture has been proved as reasonable hydrological variables to predict a wetness in the basin, it should be continuously monitored.

Performance evaluation of SFRC for tunnel segments based on large beam test (대형보 실험을 통한 TBM 터널 세그먼트용 강섬유보강콘크리트 성능평가)

  • Moon, Do-Young;Roh, Hwasung;Chang, Soo-Ho;Lee, Gyu-Phil;Bae, Gyu-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.287-298
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    • 2014
  • In order to develop SFRC TBM tunnel segment, evaluating the SFRC mixture was conducted through flexural tests of SFRC beams without ordinary steel reinforcement in this study. Considered variables were compressive strengths of SFRC, aspect and mix ratio of steel fibers and total 16 specimens were fabricated and tested until failure. The load-vertical displacement results demonstrates that the effect of aspect ratio is minor when compared to results form small beam test(Moon et al, 2013). A SFRC beam resists the vertical load until the width of crack reaches to 7 mm due to steel fibers across cracked surfaces. Moreover, it is found that flexural moment estimated by equation of TR No. 63(Concrete Society, 2011) is useful for prediction of nominal strength for SFRC structure. From the investigation of fiber distribution in cracked section, it is found that dispersion improved in actual size beam compared to in standard small beam for evaluation of flexural strength.

Development and Application of the Mode Choice Models According to Zone Sizes (분석대상 규모에 따른 수단분담모형의 추정과 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Do-Gyeong;Jeon, Jang-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2011
  • Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.

Determination of Degree of Hydration, Temperature and Moisture Distributions in Early-age Concrete (초기재령 콘크리트의 수화도와 온도 및 습도분포 해석)

  • 차수원;오병환;이형준
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.813-822
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of the present study is first to refine the mathematical material models for moisture and temperature distributions in early-age concrete and then to incorporate those models into finite element procedure. The three dimensional finite element program developed in the present study can determine the degree of hydration, temperature and moisture distribution in hardening concrete. It is assumed that temperature and humidity fields are fully uncoupled and only the degree of hydration is coupled with two state variables. Mathematical formulation of degree of hydration Is based on the combination of three rate functions of reaction. The effect of moisture condition as well as temperature on the rate of reaction is considered in the degree of hydration model. In moisture transfer, diffusion coefficient is strongly dependent on the moisture content in pore system. Many existing models describe this phenomenon according to the composition of mixture, especially water to cement ratio, but do not consider the age dependency. Microstructure is changing with the hydration and thus transport coefficients at early ages are significantly higher because the pore structure in the cement matrix is more open. The moisture capacity and sink are derived from age-dependent desorption isotherm. Prediction of a moisture sink due to the hydration process, i.e. self-desiccation, is related to autogenous shrinkage, which may cause early-age cracking in high strength and high performance concrete. The realistic models and finite element program developed in this study provide fairly good results on the temperature and moisture distribution for early-age concrete and correlate very well with actual test data.

Sub-Component Extraction of Inquiry Skills for Direct Teaching of Inquiry Skills (탐구 기능의 직접적 수업을 위한 탐구 기능 하위 요소 추출)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Kang, Soon-Hee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.236-264
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to provide teachers with sub-components of inquiry skills and help them to give direct instructions on the skills to their students. Inquiry skills and strategies are considered by-products of science and inquiry instruction by most of the science teachers. On the other hand, much research shows that many students are not familiar with the way that they can use inquiry skills therefore direct instruction on the inquiry skills is needed. The lack of guidance on the sub-components for the inquiry skills, however, results in science teachers' ignorance of the inquiry skills. As shown in the previous studies which suggest that without teachers' guidance, students cannot acquire the intended skills, and it is necessary to inform science teachers of the necessity for direct instruction on the inquiry skills and strategy as well as give them the sub-components of the inquiry skills. On the basis of the results from the previous research on the inquiry skills, this study presents the sub-components of basic inquiry skills (observation, classification, measure, prediction, and reasoning) and integrated inquiry skills (problem recognition, hypothesis formulation, control of variables, data transformation, data interpretation, drawing conclusion, and generalization).

Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

Proposal of Construction System to prevent Dongbari Collapse by applying IT Convergence Technology (IT 융합기술을 적용한 동바리 붕괴사고 방지를 위한 건설공사 시스템 제안)

  • Jeon, Kyong-Deck;Shin, Seung-Jung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2020
  • Safety accidents, called industrial accidents in construction work, are causing a lot of casualties, property damage and social controversy in the event of an accident, causing the construction to lose public confidence. The risk of safety accidents at construction sites may continue to increase as the construction of high-rise, large-scale, and multi-purpose complex buildings has increased in recent years. In particular, the most frequently constructed apartment construction among reinforced concrete buildings is designed and constructed with a wall-like structure with no beams for each floor, while the lower floors are made of lamen with columns and beams. As a result, the transfer beam or transfer slab to withstand the upper load is installed on the upper part of the Ramen structure, so the system Dongbari, which is installed as a temporary material during concrete laying construction, may collapse at any time during plowing and curing. The purpose of this study is to apply IT convergence technology to prevent the collapse of the system Dongbari during concrete installation, and to apply many of the variables that may occur during construction on a case-by-case basis to check the stability of the system Dongbari and to propose a model of the anti-conducting prediction system.

Influence of Porosity on the CO2 Diffusion Characteristic in Concrete (공극률을 고려한 콘크리트 중의 이산화탄소 확산특성에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Byung-Hwan;Jung, Sang-Hwa;Lee, Myung-Kue
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.443-453
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    • 2003
  • The diffusivity of carbon dioxide in concrete is very important in that it directly affects the degree of carbonation in concrete structures. The purpose of the present study is to explore the diffusivity of carbon dioxide and to derive a realistic equation to estimate the diffusion coefficient of carbon dioxide in concrete. For this purpose, several series of concrete specimens have been tested. Major test variables were the water-cement ratios. The total porosities and the diffusion coefficients of carbon dioxide were measured for the specimens. The present study indicates that the measured porosities agree well with the calculated ones. The effects of porosity and relative humidity on the diffusion coefficient of carbon dioxide were examined. A prediction equation to estimate the diffusion coefficient of carbon dioxide was derived and proposed in this study. The proposed equation shows reasonably good correlation with test data on the $CO_2$ diffusion coefficient of concrete

The Study of Statistical Optimization of MTBE Removal by Photolysis(UV/H2O2) (광분해반응을 통한 MTBE 제거에 대한 통계적 최적화 연구)

  • Chun, Sukyoung;Chang, Soonwoong
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2011
  • This study investigate the use of ultraviolet(UV) light with hydrogen peroxide($H_2O_2$) for Methyl Tert Butyl Ether(MTBE) degradation in photolysis reactor. The process in general demands the generation of OH radicals in solution at the presence of UV light. These radicals can then attack the MTBE molecule and it is finally destroyed or converted into a simple harmless compound. The MTBE removal by photolysis were mathematically described as the independent variables such as irradiation intensity, initial concentration of MTBE and $H_2O_2$/MTBE ratio, and these were modeled by the use of response surface methodology(RSM). These experiments were carried out as a Box-Behnken Design(BBD) consisting of 15 experiments. Regression analysis term of Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) shows significantly p-value(p<0.05) and high coefficients for determination values($R^2$=94.60%) that allow satisfactory prediction of second-order regression model. And Canonical analysis yields the stationery point for response, with the estimate ridge of maximum responses and optimal conditions for Y(MTBE removal efficiency, %) are $x_1$=25.75 W of irradiation intensity, $x_2$=7.69 mg/L of MTBE concentration and $x_3$=11.04 of $H_2O_2$/MTBE molecular ratio, respectively. This study clearly shows that RSM is available tool for optimizing the operating conditions to maximize MTBE removal.

A Study on the Verification of Sales Price Factors in Residential Building Development by Using Correlation Analysis (상관분석을 통한 공동주택 개발사업의 분양가 산정 요인 도출연구)

  • Son, Seunghyun;Lee, Jaehyeon;Son, Kiyoung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2024
  • Estimating the sales price of a residential building development project is difficult because of it has many complex variables such as location, environment, and economic conditions. Many previous studies related to influence factors of the sales price is to identify by survey of experts and it is few studies by comparing with actual sales price. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify the factors influenced on the projects by using correlation analysis from collected actual data in this study. For the purpose, first, the factors such as economy, location, housing, financial environmental factors were identified from previous studies. Second, data were collected on actual sale prices and selected factors. Finally, the actual sales price and factors were compared and analyzed by using correlation analysis. As a result, the R2 values of economy, location, housing and financial environmental factors were over 0.5 respectively. Therefore, it was confirmed that these factors were significantly correlated with actual sales price. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for research and development of a new sale prices prediction model.