• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.3-25
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• 2013

This paper evaluates whether the proposed FTAAP is a desirable policy option for APEC member economies and the world economy. More specifically, this paper qualitatively investigates whether the FTAAP satisfies conditions for a trade bloc to generate positive and sufficient net trade creation effect. In addition, this paper estimates the likely impact of the FTAAP by using a CGE model analysis. From the qualitative analysis based on statistical data, this paper strongly argues that the FTAAP can be a desirable regional trade bloc able to generate positive gains from freer trade. From the ex-ante scenario analysis using both static and capital accumulation CGE Models, this paper concludes that the FTAAP has great potential for improving welfare of participating APEC economies and will boost economic growth in the region. In particular, the FTAAP would be even better if it can be linked with liberalization of trade in services and enhanced trade facilitation.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.41-60
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• 2022

Purpose - The policy implications of free trade agreements have traditionally been a matter of debate among economists. The official signing of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement provides economists with a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the FTA's policy effects. This article aims to more accurately understand the impact of Korea's FTA accession on the macro economy. Design/methodology - This study adopts the counterfactual method based on panel data to find common factors in the generation process of macro data to fit the counterfactual path, to accurately evaluate the effect of the macro policy. Findings - Our research results show that the signing of the Korea-China FTA has a relatively significant short-term positive effect on Korea's economic growth. On average, Korea's real GDP growth rate has increased by 2.1%. This study finds evidence in support of FTA signing not having a significant impact on Korea's GDP growth in the long run. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of the FTA on Korea's imports and exports and found that it had a significant positive impact in the short term, but the trade effect of the FTA is significantly affected by the external macro-environment. Originality/value - First, this study uses macro panel data at the national level to examine the impact of the Korea-China FTA on Korea, and more accurately describes the policy effect of the FTA. Second, our empirical results show that the Korea-China FTA policy impact is subject to occasional changes in the external environment, such as the geopolitical conflict (crisis) between Korea and China, and the US-China trade war. Finally, the analysis shows that the short-term effect of FTA is significant but the long-term is uncertain, which provides empirical evidence for the debate on whether joining FTA can promote national economic growth.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.33-71
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• 2021

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EU-South Korea agreement, which is the first 'second-generation' FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.118-137
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• 2019

Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea's mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP. Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea's GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea's GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively. Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.3-35
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• 2016

This paper analyses the new discipline on state-owned enterprises contained in the recently concluded Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, and evaluates various factors that influenced the shaping of its specific rules. The new discipline consolidates and strengthens related provisions in current trade regimes, reflects various aspects of trade disputes between China and the US, and adopts, as its general underlying rationale, the principle of competitive neutrality. The new discipline contains elements that may challenge the multilateral trade regime, and may serve as a role model in regulating state-owned enterprises, including subsidies in services trade in other on-going trade negotiations. The new regime makes us think hard about fundamental issues regarding enforcement of competition policy against state-owned enterprises, treatment of non-market economies, and how to deal with effects of subsidies in international trade, bringing competition issues back on the trade agenda.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.83-95
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• 2019

Purpose - This study analyzed the effect of the Trump Government's protectionist trade policies on foreign ownership. Specifically, this study empirically analyzes the hypothesis that foreign ownership will decrease after the Trump Government rather than before the Trump Government. Design/methodology - The hypothesis of this study is based on the expectation that US protection trade policy will negatively affect the profitability of Korean companies. The dependent variable in this study is the foreign ownership ratio, and the independent variable is a dummy variable representing before and after the Trump Government. Multiple regression analysis was performed, including the control variables suggested in previous studies related to foreign ownership. Findings - As a result, foreign ownership increased after the Trump Government rather than before the Trump Government. This study further analyzes whether the main variables affecting foreign investor's decision-making are differences before and after Trump Government. The export ratio, profitability and dividends did not differ before and after Trump Government. However, the level of information asymmetry decreased after the Trump Government than before the Trump Government. This suggests that US protection trade policies do not adversely affect the profitability of Korean companies. However, Korean firms are improving their information environment because US protectionist trade policies can lower profitability and negatively impact capital raising. In this regard, the foreign ownership ratio seems to differ before and after the Trump Government. Originality/value - This study contributes in that it presents data that US protectionist policies can affect Korean corporate governance. This study has implications from the short-term analysis of US protection trade policy.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.259-279
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• 2009

Recently, FTA is quickly spreading out all over the world. In Korea, roles of trade in the economy are significantly important. Therefore, in order to adapt quickly to changed international trade environment, FTA negotiation and its agreements have been accelerated. In Korea, the trade deficit is expected to continue in telecommunications services sector. Meanwhile, pressures to open the market have been intensified in telecommunications services at WTO and FTA negotiations. Therefore, in the middle of opening the market, the expansion plans to increase the competitiveness of our telecommunications services are required to be searched. Thus, in this paper, we reviewed the Korea trade policy status related to telecommunications services based on realistic situation. Also, after reviewing the trade issues which are raised in the WTO and FTA negotiations, the major issues in WTO and FTA were driven to the lessons.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.92-102
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• 2018

This paper studied the changes and effects of Korean Trade Policies in Vietnam market after the withdrawal of the TPP from US. Since Trump government is starting, US trade policy has moved to the protectionism method. Nevertheless, Vietnam is expanding its status as an FTA hub, and Vietnam is actively expanding its economic growth by actively implementing foreign capital. Vietnam, however, is likely to lose its position as a hub of FTA after USA's withdrawal from TPP member. So, Korea's trade policy is also expected to change its stance on Vietnam, and Korea is expected to change its policy toward Vietnam. Korea has achieved a lot of accomplishments and growth with free trade and free economic markets, and it has to strengthen its national strength even afterwards. Thus, if the flow of free trade & globalization continues, I would consider how the Korea trade policy change after the U.S.'s withdraws from TPP.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.23-43
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• 2020

This study aims at analyzing the interactions between two of the most significant trade stakeholders in Korea, the Trade Ministry and the Legislature, using text network analysis. Tackling seven Action and Plan Reports for Requests from Parliamentary Inspection released by the National Assembly, this paper conducts a topic modelling analysis, particularly focusing on the reports for the three trade-related institutes: the MOTIE headquarter, Korea Trade Insurance Corporation, Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency. According to the analysis, such traditional topics of the MOTIE as enterprise, industry, business, management, development were frequently appeared in the reports. Trade-related topics including export, trade, commerce, investment, overseas, domestic, dispute, cooperation, efficiency, negotiation, service, promotion were repeatedly shown. Lastly, a case study on 2019 Parliamentary Inspection Report showed specific trade-related topics and relevant contents that raised issues in that year. This analysis implies that the text data driven from the Parliamentary Inspection Reports between the MOTIE and the National Assembly, can be established as so called 'trade policy information system' which are valuable not only for the two but also the rest of the trade stakeholders in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.93-106
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• 2020

Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.