• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impulse response model

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A Study on the Effect of Changes in Oil Price on Dry Bulk Freight Rates and Intercorrelations between Dry Bulk Freight Rates (국제유가의 변화가 건화물선 운임에 미치는 영향과 건화물선 운임간의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck;Kim, Seong-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.217-240
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    • 2011
  • In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

An Empirical Study on the Causalities and Effects between International Trade and Economic Growth in China (중국의 국제무역과 경제성장간의 인과관계 및 파급효과)

  • Kim, Jong-Sup
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.55-79
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    • 2009
  • This papers studies the causalities and effects on the relationship between international trade and economic growth in China for the period of 1950-2007, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, VAR model, and VECM. The results of this study are as follows: Firstly, in the unit root test, I found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. Secondly, in the Granger Causality test, this papers shows that variable dlexp and dlinp influence on dlgdp and dlgdd, while bilateral causality relation between dlexp and dlgdp, dlexp and dlgdd for the whole period, for the whole period, pre-reform period and post-reform period. Thirdly, there is no cointegraion relation between lgdp(or dlgdp, lgdd, dlgdd) and lexp, linp for lgdd-limp in the whole period, and pre-reform period, while no cointegration relation for the post-reform period. Finally, in the impulse-response test, it was proved that lgdp represents (-) correlation with lexp for the whole period. Thorough the variance decomposition test, it was proved that linp(or dlinp) is the most affected variable of the each data and relation between linp(or dlinp) and lexp(or dlexp) has become bigger recently.

Robust Sliding Mode Controller Design for the Line-of-Sight Stabilization

  • Kim, Moon-Sik;Yun, Jung-Joo;Yoo, Gi-Sung;Lee, Min-Cheol
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.614-619
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    • 2004
  • The line-of-sight (LOS) stabilization system is a precision electro-mechanical gimbals assembly for rejecting vibration to isolate the load from its environment and point toward the target in a desired direction. This paper describes the design of gimbals system to reject the disturbance and to improve stabilization. To generate movement commands for the actuators in the stabilization system, the control system uses a sensor of angular rotation. The controller is a DSP with transducer and actuator interfaces. Unknown parameters of the gimbals are estimated using the signal compression method. The cross-correlation coefficient between the impulse response from the assumed model and the one from model of the gimbals is used to obtain the better estimation. And SMCPE (sliding mode control with perturbation estimation) is used to control the gimbals. SMCPE provides robustness of the control against the modeling deficiencies and unknown disturbances. In order to compare the performance of SMCPE with the classical SMC, a sample test result is presented.

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Beat Map Drawing Method of Bell Type Structures and Beat Maps of the King Seong-deok Divine Bell (종형 구조물의 맥놀이 지도 작성법과 성덕대왕신종의 맥놀이 지도)

  • 김석현
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.626-636
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    • 2003
  • The beat distribution property of the King Seong-deok Divine Bell is investigated by experiment and analysis. The beat map method is proposed to explain the beat distribution property on the circumference of the bell. For the analytical investigation, an analytical model of the vibration beat is derived on a slightly asymmetric shell of revolution by using the modal expansion method. In the analytical method, the beat map can be drawn only if the modal parameters of the bell are obtained. The analytical beat model is applied to draw the beat map of the King Seong-deok Divine Bell. The validity of the analytical method is verified by comparing the analytical beat maps with the experimental results. This paper proposes a visualization method of the beat and theoretically identifies the reason why the clear and unclear beats repeat periodically along the circumference of the bell and how the striking position influences the beat distribution property.

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Cultural Industry and Economic Growth

  • He, Yugang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2018
  • The cultural industry is treated as the sunrise industry in modern society. It has taken an increasing role in promoting the economic growth. Due to this, this paper attempts to explore the dynamic relationship between cultural industry and the economic growth. On the grounds of Cobb-Douglas production function, the cultural industry is regarded as a determinant such as the labor input and the capital input to impact the economic growth. Meanwhile, the quarterly datum form 2000-Q1 to 2017-Q4 are employed to perform an empirical analysis via the vector error correction model. The GDP is treated as an independent variable. The input of capital, the input of labor and the total input of cultural industry are treated as dependent variables. Furthermore, a menu of statistical approaches such as the co-integration test and the impulse response function will be used to testify the dynamic relationship between cultural industry and economic growth. Via the Johansen co-integration test, the results report that the cultural industry has a obviously positive effect on economic growth. Through the vector error correction estimation, the results also report that the cultural industry also has a significantly positive effect on economic growth, but less than that of the Johansen co-integration test. This paper provides a view that the cultural industry is a kind of a determinant to promote the economic growth. Therefore, the China's government should pay much attention to the cultural industry construction.

Dynamic Causal Relationships between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth (에너지소비와 경제성장의 동태적 인과관계)

  • Mo, Soowon;Kim, Changbeom
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.327-346
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    • 2003
  • Unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between these variables using the dynamic vector using Johansen's multiple cointegration procedure, dynamic vector error-correction model and impulse response function. The empirical results show that while the energy consumption to a shock in income responds positively, the income responds positively to the shocks in energy consumption in the first place and then the responses become negative. We also find that the impact of energy consumption shock on the income is short-lived and causes higher inflationary pressure.

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Insulation Design and Test of Model Windings for the Development of High Temperature Superconducting Transformer (고온초전도변압기 개발을 위한 모델 권선의 절연 설계 및 평가)

  • Joung, Jong-Man;Baek, Sung-Myeong;Kwak, Dong-Sun;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.08a
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    • pp.19-22
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    • 2003
  • In the response to increasing the demands for electrical energy, much effort aimed to develop and commercialize 1MVA HTS power equipments that is supported by a grant from center for Applied Superconductivity Technology of the 21st Century Frontier R&D Program funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology is going on in Korea. For the development, the cryogenic insulation and winding insulation of it in this paper are discussed. In the first many types of dielectric insulating tests were carried out. In detail Breakdown characteristics of $LN_2$, FRP and turn insulating films, flashover characteristics along the FRP surface in $LN_2$ were verified after distinguishing insulation components in HIS windings. And then model windings were designed and insulation test was conducted. These included a AC withstand voltage test of 50kV rms and a lightning impulse test of 150kV at peak.

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Do Real Interest Rate, Gross Domestic Savings and Net Exports Matter in Economic Growth? Evidence from Indonesia

  • SUJIANTO, Agus Eko;PANTAS, Pribawa E.;MASHUDI, Mashudi;PAMBUDI, Dwi Santosa;NARMADITYA, Bagus Shandy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to measure the effects of real interest rate (RIR), gross domestic savings (GDS), and net exports (EN) shocks on Indonesia's economic growth (EG). The focus on Indonesia is unique due to the abundant resources available in the nation, but they are unsuccessful in boosting economic growth. This study applied a quantitative method to comprehensively analyze the correlation between variables by employing Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Various procedures are preformed: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Optimum Lag Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Error Variance Decomposition Analysis (FEVD). The data were collected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank from 1986 to 2017. The findings of the study indicated that economic growth responded positively to real interest rate shocks, which implies that when the real interest rate experiences a shock (increase), the economy will be inclined to growth. While, economic growth responded negatively to gross domestic savings and net export shocks. Policymakers are expected to consider several matters, particularly the economic conditions at the time of formulating policy, so that the prediction effectiveness of a policy can be appropriately assessed.

A Dynamic Study on Housing and Stock Market in Europe : Focused on Greece

  • JEONG, Dong-Bin
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This study examines what are the asset market fluctuations in Europe and how each economic variable affects major variables, and explore the dynamics of housing and stock market through Greece. The variables under consideration are balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), M3, real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). We investigate the functional and causal relationships between housing and stock market. Research design, data, and methodology - Vector error correction model (VECM) is used to figure out the dynamic relationships among variables. This study also contains the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root, cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis by EViews 11.0. Results - The statistical tests show that all variables under consideration have one unit root and there is a longterm equilibrium relationship among variables for Greece. GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN can be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market, while GDP, LOAN, M3, BCA and HOUSING can bring direct effects to stock market in Greece. Conclusions - It can be judged that the policy that affects the lending policy of financial institutions may be more effective than the indirect variable such as monetary interest rate.

A Development of Brake System for Inline Skate using Bellows (벨로우즈를 이용한 인라인스케이트의 브레이크 시스템 개발)

  • Rhee, Eun-Jun;Park, Myeong-Kwan;Joo, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3 s.96
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 1999
  • This paper represents the development of the brake system for the inline skate using bellows. The inline skate that is used at present has defects due to frequent impulse, which weakens the breaking force by damaging the parts. Therefore to solve these problems a break system for the inline skates using hydraulics is suggested. To solve the oil leakage problems, bellows is used. Also to prevent the breaks from not touching the ground when skating the bellows is placed at the heel, high as possible. To obtain fast response speed, the ratio of inner diameter of the bellows is changed so that with only a small displacement from the bellows the rubber pad attached to the bellows will touch the ground fast. The performance of the break system using bellows depends on the optimal design of the bellows. Therefore the parameters that changes the form of the bellows are tested and also the interaction between the forces are investigated. The performance of new model brake system with bellows and old model system with only a rubber pad without bellows was estimated through observation of braking posture.

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