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Development of a Daily Solar Major Flare Occurrence Probability Model Based on Vector Parameters from SDO/HMI

  • Lim, Daye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Park, Jongyeob;Lee, Kangjin;Lee, Jin-Yi
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.59.5-60
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    • 2017
  • We present the relationship between vector magnetic field parameters and solar major flare occurrence rate. Based on this, we are developing a forecast model of major flare (M and X-class) occurrence rate within a day using hourly vector magnetic field data of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) from May 2010 to April 2017. In order to reduce the projection effect, we use SHARP data whose longitudes are within ${\pm}60$ degrees. We consider six SHARP magnetic parameters (the total unsigned current helicity, the total photospheric magnetic free energy density, the total unsigned vertical current, the absolute value of the net current helicity, the sum of the net current emanating from each polarity, and the total unsigned magnetic flux) with high F-scores as useful predictors of flaring activity from Bobra and Couvidat (2015). We have considered two cases. In case 1, we have divided the data into two sets separated in chronological order. 75% of the data before a given day are used for setting up a flare model and 25% of the data after that day are used for test. In case 2, the data are divided into two sets every year in order to reduce the solar cycle (SC) phase effect. All magnetic parameters are divided into 100 groups to estimate the corresponding flare occurrence rates. The flare identification is determined by using LMSAL flare locations, giving more numbers of flares than the NGDC flare list. Major results are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with six magnetic parameters. Second, the occurrence rate ranges from 0.001 to 1 for M and X-class flares. Third, the logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by two linear equations with different slopes: steeper one at lower values and lower one at higher values. Fourth, the sum of the net current emanating from each polarity gives the minimum RMS error between observed flare rates and predicted ones. Fifth, the RMS error for case 2, which is taken to reduce SC phase effect, are smaller than those for case 1.

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Analysis of the Outdoor Design Conditions for Greenhouse Heating and Cooling Systems in Korea (온실의 냉난방시스템 설계용 외부기상조건 분석)

  • Nam, Sang-Woon;Shin, Hyun-Ho
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.308-319
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    • 2016
  • In order to set the outdoor weather conditions to be applied to the design standard of the greenhouse heating and cooling system, outdoor air temperature and heating degree-hour for heating design, dry bulb temperature, wet bulb temperature and solar irradiance for cooling design were analyzed and presented. For every region in Korea, we used thirty years from 1981 to 2010 hourly weather data for analysis, which is the current standard of climatological normal provided by KMA. Since the use of standard weather data is limited, design weather conditions were obtained using the entire weather data for 30 years, and the average value of the entire data period was presented as a design standard. The design weather data with exceedance probability of 1, 2.5, and 5% were analyzed by the TAC method, and we presented the distribution map with exceedance probability of 1% for heating and 2.5% for cooling which are recommended by design standards. The changes of maximum heating load, seasonal heating load and maximum cooling load were examined by regions, exceedance probabilities, and setpoint temperatures. The proposed outdoor design conditions can be used not only directly for the greenhouse heating and cooling design, but also for the reinforcement of heating and cooling facilities and the establishment of energy saving measures. Recently, due to the climate change, sweltering heat in summer and abnormal temperature in winter are occurring frequently, so we need to analyze weather data periodically and revise the design standard at least every 10 years cycle.

Late season commercial mosquito trap and host seeking activity evaluation against mosquitoes in a malarious area of the Republic of Korea

  • Buekett, Douglas-A.;Lee, Won-Ja;Lee, Kwan-Woo;Kim, Heung-Chul;Lee, Hee-Il;Lee, Jong-Soo;Shin, E-Hyun;Wirtz, Robert-A.;Cho, Hae-Wol;Ckaborn, David-M.;Coleman, Russel-E.;Kim, Wan-Y;Klein, Terry-A.
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2002
  • Field trials evaluating selected commercially available mosquito traps variously baited with light, carbon dioxide, and/or octenol were conducted from 18-27 September 2000 in a malarious area near Paekyeon-ri (Tongil-Chon) and Camp Greaves in Paju County, Kyonggi Province, Republic of Korea. The host-seeking activity for common mosquito species, including the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles. was determined using hourly aspirator collections from a human and propane lantern-baited Shannon trap doting hours when temperatures exceeded $15^{\circ}C$. The total number of mosquitoes and number of each species captured during the test was compared using a block design. Significant differences were observed for the total number of mosquitoes collected, such that, the Mosquito MagnetTM with octenol > Shannon trap > ABC light trap with light and dry ice > Miniature Black Light trap (manufactured by John W. Hock) $\geq$ New Jersey Trap > ABC light trap with light only. Significant differences in numbers collected among trapes were noted for several species including: Aedes vexans (Meigen), Anopheles lesteri Baisas and Hu. An. sinensis Weidemann, An. sineroides Yamada, An. yatsushiroensis Miyazaki. Culex pipiens pallets Coquillett L., Cx. orientalis Edwards and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Host-seeking activity for most common species showed a similar bimodal pattern. Results from these field trap evaluations can significantly enhance current vector and disease surveillance efforts especially for the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis, Cx. tritaeniorhunchus.

A Study on the Estimation of Air-Sea Heat Fluxes and the Wave Characteristics using Chilbaldo Buoy Data (칠발도 Buoy자료를 이용한 해양-대기 열교환량 산출 및 파랑 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Youn, Yong-Hoon;Hong, Sung-Gil;Hong, Yoon;Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 1998
  • Hourly meteorological data from a marine buoy ($34^{\circ}49'00"N$, $125^{\circ}46'00"E$) operated by the Korean Meteorological Agency were obtained from July, 1996 to February, 1997. From the data air-sea heat fluxes and marine meteorological characteristics around the area are estimated. The maximum outflux of sensible heat from the sea surface occurred in January (monthly mean value, 12.6 $Wm^{-2}$ and the maximum influx to the sea occurred in July (monthly mean value, 5.5 $Wm^{-2}$). This means that the sea is heated in summer while it loses its heat in winter, and that there is inequality between the absolute values of the two seasons. The outflux of the maximum latent heat occurred in November (monthly mean value, 86.5 $Wm^{-2}$) and reach a value of 300 $Wm^{-2}$, and the maximum influx occurred in July (monthly mean value, 4.6 $Wm^{-2}$). Big difference is shown in their absolute values when the wind becomes strong. The outgoing latent heat flux reaches its maximum in autumn, and it maintains the high value through the whole winter. According to the wave data analysis, the significant wave heights are larger in winter than in summer. The periods of the significant waves are 4~6 sec. In winter, waves propagated from north and northeast are dominant because of the winter monsoon, while in summer waves from south, southwest, and west are relatively frequent.

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Effects of Microbial Inoculants on the Fermentation, Nutrient Retention, and Aerobic Stability of Barley Silage

  • Zahiroddini, H.;Baah, J.;McAllister, T.A.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.1429-1436
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    • 2006
  • Fermentation characteristics, nutrient retention and aerobic stability of barley silages prepared using 6 commercial inoculants were evaluated using 126 mini-silos (3-L) in a completely randomized design. Whole barley forage was chopped, wilted to 39% DM and treated with water (control, S) or one of six inoculants: A (containing Lactobacillus plantarum); B (L. plantarum and Enterococcus faecium); C (L. plantarum and Pediococcus cerevisiae); D (L. plantarum, Pediococcus pentosaceus and Propionibacterium freudenreichii, plus hydrolytic enzymes); E (Lactobacillus buchneri plus hydrolytic enzymes); F (L. buchneri and P. pentosaceus plus hydrolytic enzymes). Samples of treated forage were collected for analysis at the time of ensiling, and then 18 silos of each treatment were filled, capped and weighed. Triplicate silos were weighed and opened after 1, 3, 5, 7, 33, and 61 d. On d 61, $400{\pm}5g$ of material from each silo was placed in 1-L styrofoam containers, covered with cheesecloth and held at room temperature. Silage temperature was recorded hourly for 14 d via implanted thermocouple probes. Chemical composition of the forage at ensiling was consistent with previously reported values. At d 61, pH was lowest (p<0.01) in silage S. Ammonia-N was lower (p<0.05) in silage A than in silages S, B, E, or F. Compared to pre-ensiling values, water soluble carbohydrate concentrations were elevated in silages S, A, B, C and D, and decreased in E and F. Lactic acid concentrations were similar (p>0.10) across treatments. Acetic acid levels were highest (p<0.01) in silage E and lowest (p<0.01) in silage D. Recovery of DM was lower (p<0.01) in silage F than in silages S, A, B, C, or D. On d 61, yeasts were most numerous (p<0.01) in silage D, which was the only silage in which temperature rose more than $2^{\circ}C$ above ambient during aerobic exposure. Silage D also had the highest (p<0.01) pH and ADIN content after aerobic exposure. Lactic acid and WSC content of silage D decreased dramatically during the 14-d aerobic exposure period. Yeast counts (at d 14 of exposure) were lowest (p<0.01) in silages E and F. In general, the commercial inoculants did not appear to enhance the fermentation of barley silage to any appreciable extent in laboratory silos.

Agricultural Climatology of Cheju Island II. Potential Evapotranspiration Based on Near-Real Time Data Measured by Automated Weather Stations (제주도의 농업기후 분석 II. 무인관측강에 의한 기상실황자료 수집 및 증발산위 계산)

  • 윤진일
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.504-511
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    • 1990
  • Weather data acquisition and potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculation procedure were investigated to support the agricultural development efforts in the mid-altitude mountainous region of Cheju Island. Automated weather stations (AWS) were installed at two points representing the east and the west of the study area. A personal computer was employed to collect the near-real time weather data from AWS through the public telephone line. Hourly data were available for solar radiation, air and soil temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Based on the data for the month of June 1989, daily climatic features were comparatively analyzed for the two areas and the Penman equation was used to calculate PET. Air temperature was higher by 1 to 2 degree C in the east due mainly to the higher solar radiation and partly to the Fohn effect caused by the daytime southwesterly blowing over Mt. Halla. Diurnal march of soil temperature lagged by 4 hours behind that of air temperature and the diurnal range for 10cm subsurface soil was 3 degree C. Wind was consistently stronger and a marked sea-land breeze circulation was detected in the west. Calculated PET values were higher in the east by 6% than in the west. Overall values from the east and the west of the mid-altitude mountainous region were higher by 30% than those of the coastal region, which were estimated from the Class A Pan evaporation measured by the Korea Meteorological Service Offices.

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Modeling the effects of excess water on soybean growth in converted paddy field in Japan 1. Predicting groundwater level and soil moisture condition - The case of Biwa lake reclamation area

  • Kato, Chihiro;Nakano, Satoshi;Endo, Akira;Sasaki, Choichi;Shiraiwa, Tatsuhiko
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2017.06a
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    • pp.315-315
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    • 2017
  • In Japan, more than 80 % of soybean growing area is converted fields and excess water is one of the major problems in soybean production. For example, recent study (Yoshifuji et al., 2016) suggested that in the fields of shallow groundwater level (GWL) (< 1m depth), rising GWL even in a short period (e.g. 1 day) causes inhibition of soybean growth. Thus it becomes more and more important to predict GWL and soil moisture in detail. In addition to conventional surface drainage and underdrain, FOEAS (Farm Oriented Enhancing Aquatic System), which is expected to control GWL in fields adequately, has been developed recently. In this study we attempted to predict GWL and soil moisture condition at the converted field with FOEAS in Biwa lake reclamation area, Shiga prefecture, near the center of the main island of Japan. Two dimensional HYDRUS model (Simuinek et al., 1999) based on common Richards' equation, was used for the calculation of soil water movement. The calculation domain was considered to be 10 and 5 meter in horizontal and vertical direction, respectively, with two layers, i.e. 20cm-thick of plowed layer and underlying subsoil layer. The center of main underdrain (10 cm in diameter) was assumed to be 5 meter from the both ends of the domain and 10-60cm depth from the surface in accordance with the field experiment. The hydraulic parameters of the soil was estimated with the digital soil map in "Soil information web viewer" and Agricultural soil-profile physical properties database, Japan (SolphyJ) (Kato and Nishimura, 2016). Hourly rainfall depth and daily potential evapo-transpiration rate data were given as the upper boundary condition (B.C.). For the bottom B.C., constant upward flux, which meant the inflow flux to the field from outside, was given. Seepage face condition was employed for the surrounding of the underdrain. Initial condition was employed as GWL=60cm. Then we compared the simulated and observed results of volumetric water content at depth of 15cm and GWL. While the model described the variation of GWL well, it tended to overestimate the soil moisture through the growing period. Judging from the field condition, and observed data of soil moisture and GWL, consideration of soil structure (e.g. cracks and clods) in determination of soil hydraulic parameters at the plowed layer may improve the simulation results of soil moisture.

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Influenced on Analysis of Characteristics of Forest Environmental Factors on Debris Flow Occurrence (토석류 위험지역에 영향하는 산림환경 특성 분석)

  • Park, Jae-hyeon;Kang, Min-Jeong;Kim, Ki-Dae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.3
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    • pp.403-410
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to analyze the forest environmental characteristics on a total of 20 forest environmental factors affecting the debris flow against 272 sites of risk areas. In the case of environmental factors, it showed the high risk of debris flow under the following conditions such as soil depth of less than 30cm, west slope, altitude of 200~300 m, mountain average slope of $25{\sim}30^{\circ}$, sandy loam, igneous rocks, and composite slope. Among the rainfall factors, 50~100 mm of maximum hourly rain fall and 300 mm of maximum rain fall per day have been shown the high risk of debris flow. Furthermore, the high risk of debris flow was related to the river-bed average slope of $10{\sim}20^{\circ}$, the river-bed average width of >10 m, the small amount of debris in river-bed (less than 20% of river-bed structure), the drainage density of >$1km/km^2$, the 40~60% of area with more than $20^{\circ}$ slope, and the 40~60% of areas with risk grade 2 of landslide. In addition, forest environmental factors including the driftwood, soil erosion control structures, age-class 3, crown density (density), and mixed forest were important factors causing the high risk of debris flow.

Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Recent Changes of Tropical Night Phenomenon in South Korea (우리나라 열대야 현상 발생의 시.공간적 특징과 최근의 변화)

  • Choi, Cwangyong;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.6 s.111
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    • pp.730-747
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    • 2005
  • This study examines relationships between climatic factors and spatial-temporal patterns and recent changes of tropical night phenomenon(TN) occurring through nighttime stages in South Korea. Frequencies of daily TN at different times of night are extracted from long term(1973-2004) 6 hourly nighttime(9PM and 3AM) temperature and daily minimum temperature data at 61 weather stations. Temporally, the occurrences of TN are more pronounced in the evening(9PM) and during the Changma Break period(late July - early August). Spatially, the TNs in the evening frequently occur in the urbanized inland cities at low latitudes due to urban heat islands, whereas the TNs in the middle of night(3AM) or at dawn frequently appeared along the coastal areas within 30km from ocean due to the thermal inertia of ocean. By contrast, the evening(dawn) TN is not seen in the highlands whose elevation is greater than 800m(300m) along the Taebaek and Sobaek mountain ridges due to temperature lapse rates with height Correlation and multivariate regression analyses reveal that the impacts of human or physical climatic factors, such as latitude, elevation, proximity to ocean, and population density, are diverse on the frequencies of TN according to nighttime stages. Recent temporal changes of the late Changma period and intensified urbanization during the 1990s have increased the occurances of TN in urban areas. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the increasing urban TN should be prepared in the near future.

Rumen pH and Ammonia Nitrogen of Cattle Fed Different Levels of Oil Palm (Elaeis guineensis) Frond Based Diet and Dry Matter Degradation of Fractions of Oil Palm Frond

  • Islam, M.;Dahlan, I.;Rajion, M.A.;Jelan, Z.A.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.941-947
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    • 2000
  • Three fistulated Malaysian local bulls were used in a $3{\times}3$ Latin square design to determine the effects of different levels of concentrate with oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) frond (OPF) on rumen pH and $NH_3$-N concentration, and DM degradability of different fractions of OPF. Three diets namely, 60% OPF pellet and 40% concentrate (Diet 1), 50% OPF pellet and 50% concentrate (Diet 2) and 40% OPF pellets and 60% concentrate (Diet 3) were used. The levels of concentrate in the diets affected rumen pH and $NH_3$-N concentration. The pH and $NH_3$-N concentration almost in all hourly samples did not show any difference (p>0.05) among the diets except the 6 h and 9 h samples. The highest (p<0.01) $NH_3$-N concentration was obtained on Diet 3 followed by Diet 2 and Diet 1, but there was a slightly higher (p>0.05) pH on Diet 1. The $NH_3$-N concentrations of rumen liquor at 9 h sampling on Diet 1 and Diet 2 were below the critical level (50 mg/liter) required for efficient fermentation of fibrous feeds. The in sacco DM degradation of different fractions of OPF was affected by diets. The DM degradation of fractions of OPF was higher on Diet 3, which showed differences (p<0.01) with the other diets. It was found that a higher level of concentrate (60%) with OPF gave a higher rumen $NH_3$-N concentration that increased the DM degradation of OPF fractions. The results showed that OPF could support an efficient rumen function in terms of $NH_3$-N concentration and pH when ${\leq}50%$ in the diet. A higher level of OPF (>50%) does not support an efficient rumen fermentation in terms of $NH_3$-N concentration, and resulted in lower DM degradation values of the fractions. The results suggested that there is a need to supplement additional nitrogen to OPF based diets.