• 제목/요약/키워드: Flux prediction

검색결과 341건 처리시간 0.024초

북극해 지역의 위성 기반 복사 에너지 산출물의 비교 분석 (Comparative Analysis of Radiative Flux Based on Satellite over Arctic)

  • 서민지;이은경;이경상;최성원;진동현;성노훈;한현경;김현철;한경수
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제34권6_2호
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    • pp.1193-1202
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    • 2018
  • 북극의 장기간 기후 변화 관측을 위해서는 에너지 수지를 정량적으로 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 에너지 수지를 정량적으로 파악하기 위해서 고품질의 장기간 복사 에너지 변수들이 필요하지만 대부분 위성 기반 복사 에너지 변수 자료들은 제공되는 기간이 짧아 자료들을 연계하여 사용해야한다. 자료를 연계해서 사용하기 위해서는 사용되는 자료의 차이를 정확하게 파악하고 일치시키는 것이 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위성 기반 복사 에너지 자료인 Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project(GEWEX) 와 Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES)를 비교 분석하여 자료 연계를 위한 기초자료를 제공하고자 한다. 두 자료를 비교 분석한 결과 CERES자료를 기준으로 했을 때, GEWEX 자료가 과소 추정되었다. 또한 두 자료는 약 $3{\sim}25W/m^2$의 차이가 발생하였으며, 고위도 지역이거나 해빙지역일수록 두 자료의 차이가 더 증가하였다. 또한 두 자료의 월별 평균을 비교하였을 때는 하향 장파 복사 에너지를 제외한 나머지 변수들은 봄과 여름철에 $9.26{\sim}26.71W/m^2$의 높은 차이를 보였다. 본 연구 결과는 북극지역에서 CERES와 GEWEX 자료를 합성하거나 선택할 때 좋은 기준 자료로 사용 가능하다.

Analysis of Orbital Lifetime Prediction Parameters in Preparation for Post-Mission Disposal

  • Choi, Ha-Yeon;Kim, Hae-Dong;Seong, Jae-Dong
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.367-377
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    • 2015
  • Atmospheric drag force is an important source of perturbation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbit satellites, and solar activity is a major factor for changes in atmospheric density. In particular, the orbital lifetime of a satellite varies with changes in solar activity, so care must be taken in predicting the remaining orbital lifetime during preparation for post-mission disposal. In this paper, the System Tool Kit (STK$^{(R)}$) Long-term Orbit Propagator is used to analyze the changes in orbital lifetime predictions with respect to solar activity. In addition, the STK$^{(R)}$ Lifetime tool is used to analyze the change in orbital lifetime with respect to solar flux data generation, which is needed for the orbital lifetime calculation, and its control on the drag coefficient control. Analysis showed that the application of the most recent solar flux file within the Lifetime tool gives a predicted trend that is closest to the actual orbit. We also examine the effect of the drag coefficient, by performing a comparative analysis between varying and constant coefficients in terms of solar activity intensities.

유한체적법에 의한 복잡한 형상을 갖는 3차원 가스터빈 연속기내의 복사열 전달 해석 (Prediction of Radiative Heat Transfer in a Three-Dimensional Gas Turbine Combustor with the Finite-Volume Method)

  • 김만영;백승욱
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
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    • 제20권8호
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    • pp.2681-2692
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    • 1996
  • The finite-volume method for radiation in a three-dimensional non-orthogonal gas turbine combustion chamber with absorbing, emitting and anisotropically scattering medium is presented. The governing radiative transfer equation and its discretization equation using the step scheme are examined, while geometric relations which transform the Cartesian coordinate to a general body-fitted coordinate are provided to close the finite-volume formulation. The scattering phase function is modeled by a Legendre polynomial series. After a benchmark solution for three-dimensional rectangular combustor is obtained to validate the present formulation, a problem in three-dimensional non-orthogonal gas turbine combustor is investigated by changing such parameters as scattering albedo, scattering phase function and optical thickness. Heat flux in case of isotropic scattering is the same as that of non-scattering with specified heat generation in the medium. Forward scattering is found to produce higher radiative heat flux at hot and cold wall than backward scattering and optical thickness is also shown to play an important role in the problem. Results show that finite-volume method for radiation works well in orthogonal and non-orthogonal systems.

원형 및 환상 채널에 흐르는 수직 상향류의 액막 건조 모델 (Phenomenological Liquid Film Dryout Model for Upward Flow in Tubes and Annuli)

  • 홍성덕;천세영
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집D
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    • pp.201-207
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    • 2001
  • We modeled the liquid film dryout(LFD) process for both tube and annulus which have uniformly heated vertical channels. We set phenomenological initial conditions in the model. The initial void fraction on the onset of the annular flow location is derived from the physical chum-to-annular flow criterion with the help of the drift-flux-model. The initial thermodynamic-equilibrium-quality is calculated by iteration with the flow quality to find the onset of the annular-flow location. Present model tends to predict very well at the lower exit quality but under-estimates at the higher exit quality. We found that the prediction error of the present model is gradually bigger as the inlet subcooling approaches near the saturation. We obtained excellent results for both tube and annulus channels as the mean of 0.97 and root-mean-square error of 11% for the number of 3883 experimental data on tubes, and of 0.96 and of 12% for 593 on annuli. The present model extended the applicable range to the relatively low exit quality region than previous LFD models.

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How to forecast solar flares, solar proton events, and geomagnetic storms

  • Moon, Yong Jae
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제38권2호
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    • pp.33-33
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    • 2013
  • We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

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공기를 이용한 축소형 4노즐 클러스터드 엔진 저부 유동의 CFD 해석 검증 (A Study on the Accuracy of CFD Prediction for Small Scaled 4 Nozzle Clustered Engine Using Air)

  • 김성룡;김인선
    • 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국추진공학회 2011년도 제37회 추계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 2011
  • 공기를 이용한 축소형 4 노즐 클러스터드 엔진 저부 유동에 대한 CFD 해석을 수행하여 격자 및 차분법, 난류 모델에 따른 비교를 수행하였다. 해석 결과 Roe나 AUSM 차분에 따른 차이는 발견되지 않았으나, 난류 모델에 따른 차이는 적지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과로는 Spalart-Allmaras 1 방정식 난류 모델이 SST k-w 모델에 비하여 경향성을 잘 맞추는 것으로 드러났다. 엔진 저부의 마하수, 압력 속도 등의 변화를 분석하면, 엔진과 엔진 사이의 외부 노출 공간에서 유동의 목을 형성하는 것은 아닌 것으로 보이고 이는 노즐과 노즐 사이의 공간이 목을 형성한다는 일부 해석적 이론에서 가정한 상황과 약간 다른 것이다.

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열유속 상지연이 존재하는 열전도 현상에 대한 연구 (A Study of the Heat Conduction Phenomena with a Phase Lag of Heat Flux)

  • 김창복;김경근;정한식;정효민;최두열;최순호
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • 제32권5호
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    • pp.684-690
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    • 2008
  • In most engineering applications related with the heat conduction phenomena, a conventional Fourier heat conduction equation has been successfully applied and it has supplied quite reasonable results. However, it is well known that the Fourier heat conduction equation is failed in the application to the extremely small space and short time, in other words, a nano-scale system and a pico-second time. In this study, non-Fourier effect was evaluated in the heat conduction by considering the concept of a phase lag model. The results show the existence of a heat wave, which means that the heat is transferred with a finite speed while an infinite speed of heat transfer is assumed in the conventional Fourier heat conduction. In addition, the copper and the gold are tested to evaluate the phase lag time between the heat flux and the temperature gradient. The results show that the gold has the heat wave speed faster than that of the copper consistent with the prediction based on an actual experiment.

킥 모터 지상 시험의 플룸 복사 열유속 측정 (Measurement of Radiative Heat Flux of Kick Motor at Ground Test)

  • 김성룡;최상호;고주용;김인선
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.440-443
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    • 2008
  • Plume radiation has been measured during ground tests of KSLV-I kick motor in order to predict the thermal load on the equipment around the kick motor at flight. The measuring positions are the kick motor base, and the measured heats were about 2${\sim}$5 w/cm$^2$. The measured heat showed a lot of shot fluctuation in their values, and the radiative heats at the latter half of time are higher than those of the first half. A plausible explanation for these phenomena was given as the variation of alumina particles with time. The radiative heats along the plume axis were also measured recently at 8 positions with 1.5m radius from plume axis, but only the initial parts of the results could be acceptable because the sensor were damaged by the accumulated heat. The strongest heat occurred at the middle of the plume, which can be explained with different view factors. Despite of the plausible explanation, it seems to need more analysis because the plume structure such as temperature, alumina particle, after burning has not been revealed until yet. The measure heat flux has been reflected in the prediction of the plume radiation at high altitude where the kick motor operates.

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Reconstruction and Validation of Gridded Product of Wind/Wind-stress derived by Satellite Scatterometer Data over the World Ocean and its Impact for Air-Sea Interaction Study

  • Kutsuwada, Kunio;Koyama, Makoto;Morimoto, Naoki
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
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    • pp.33-36
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    • 2007
  • We have persistently constructed gridded products of surface wind/wind stress over the world ocean using satellite scatterometer (ERS and Qscat). They are available for users as the Japanese Ocean Flux data sets with Use of Remote sensing Observation (J-OFURO) data together with heat flux components. Recently, a new version data of the Qscat/SeaWinds based on improved algorithm for rain flag and high wind-speed range have been delivered, and allowed us to reconstruct gridded product with higher spatial resolution. These products are validated by comparisons with in-situ measurement data by mooring buoys such as TAO/TRITON, NDBC and the Kuroshio Extension Observation (KEO) buoys, together with numerical weather prediction model products such as the NCEP-1 and 2. Results reveal that the new product has almost the same magnitude in mean difference as the previous version of Qscat product and much smaller than the NCEP-1 and 2. On the other hand, it is slightly larger root-mean-square (RMS) difference than the previous one and NCEPs for the comparison using the KEO buoy data. This may be due to the deficit of high wind speed data in the buoy measurement. The high resolution product, together with sea surface temperature (SST) one, is used to examine a new type of relationship between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean in the Kuroshio Extension region.

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Space Weather Monitoring System for Geostationary Satellites and Polar Routes

  • Baek, Ji-Hye;Lee, Jae-Jin;Choi, Seong-Hwan;Hwang, Jung-A;Hwang, Eun-Mi;Park, Young-Deuk
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제36권2호
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    • pp.101.2-101.2
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    • 2011
  • We have developed solar and space weather monitoring system for space weather users since 2007 as a project named 'Construction of Korea Space Weather Prediction Center'. In this presentation we will introduce space weather monitoring system for Geostationary Satellites and Polar Routes. These were developed for satisfying demands of space weather user groups. 'Space Weather Monitoring System for Geostationary Satellites' displays integrated space weather information on geostationary orbit such as magnetopause location, nowcast and forecast of space weather, cosmic ray count rate, number of meteors and x-ray solar flux. This system is developed for space weather customers who are managing satellite systems or using satellite information. In addition, this system provides space weather warning by SMS in which short message is delivered to users' cell phones when space weather parameters reach a critical value. 'Space Weather Monitoring System for Polar Routes' was developed for the commercial airline companies operating polar routes. This provides D-region and polar cap absorption map, aurora and radiation particle distribution, nowcast and forecast of space weather, proton flux, Kp index and so on.

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