• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Level

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Determination of Incentive Level of Direct Load Control using Monte Carlo Simulation with Variance Reduction Technique (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 직접부하제어의 제어지원금 산정)

  • Jeong Yun Won;Park Jong Bae;Shin Joong Rin;Chae Myung Suk
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.666-670
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents a new approach for determining an accurate incentive levels of Direct Load Control (DLC) program using sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques. The economic analysis of DLC resources needs to identify the hourly-by-hourly expected energy-not-served resulting from the random outage characteristics of generators as well as to reflect the availability and duration of DLC resources, which results the computational explosion. Therefore, the conventional methods are based on the scenario approaches to reduce the computation time as well as to avoid the complexity of economic studies. In this paper, we have developed a new technique based on the sequential MCS to evaluate the required expected load control amount in each hour and to decide the incentive level satisfying the economic constraints. And also the proposed approach has been considered multi-state as well as two-state of the generating units. In addition, we have applied the variance reduction technique to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the suggested method the numerical studies have been performed for the modified IEEE reliability test system.

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Predictability of Overnight Returns on the Cross-sectional Stock Returns (야간수익률의 횡단면 주식수익률에 대한 예측력)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper explores whether overnight returns measured from the last closing price to today's opening price explain the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study is conducted using the Korean stock market data from 1998 to 2018, obtained from DataGuide database. The analysis begins with portfolio-level tests, followed by firm-level cross-sectional regressions. Findings - First, when decile portfolios sorted on the daily average of overnight returns in the previous months, the highest decile portfolio exhibits a significant negative risk-adjusted return. This suggests that stocks with higher average overnight returns are temporarily overvalued due to buying pressure from investors. Second, at least 6 months of persistence exists in average overnight returns, which is in line with the results reported by Barber, Odean and Zhu (2009) that investor sentiment persists over several weeks. Finally, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression of expected returns after controlling for a variety of firm characteristic variables such as firm size, book-to-market ratio, market beta, momentum, liquidity, short-term reversal, the slope coefficient for overnight returns remains negative and statistically significant. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the evidence consistently suggests that overnight return is considered as a new priced factor in the cross-section of expected returns. The findings of this paper not only adds to finance literature, but also could be useful to practitioners in making stock investment decision.

Necessity of measuring the periodontal pocket depth according to dental hygiene studentsin the mock national board examination (일부 치위생(학)과 학생들의 치과위생사 국가고시 실기시험에서의 치주낭 측정 평가 필요성에 관한 연구)

  • Yong-Keum, Choi;Eun-Jeong, Kim
    • Journal of Korean Dental Hygiene Science
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2022
  • Background: This study was aimed at investigating the perception of the requirement of measuring the periodontal pocket depth of the dental hygiene students in the mock national board examination. Methods: SPSS 25.0 (IBM SPSS Statistics) was used to perform the independent t-test for the recognition level of dental hygiene students in the interdisciplinary practical national board examination. A p-value < 0.05 was set to indicate statistical significance. Results: Participants showed a high recognition level for the requirement of measuring the periodontal pocket depth without any difference among disciplines. When periodontal pocket depth measurement was included in the national board examination, the educational and clinical work of dental hygienists was expected to be unified, and the professionalism of dental hygienists was expected to be strengthened. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the feasibility of introducing periodontal pocket depth measurement in the practical national board examination for dental hygienists should be reviewed by a group of experts.

Estimation of Genetic Variation in Holstein Young Bulls of Iran AI Station Using Molecular Markers

  • Rahimi, G.;Nejati-Javaremi, A.;Saneei, D.;Olek, K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.463-467
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    • 2006
  • Genetic profiles of Iranian Holstein young bulls at the national artificial insemination station were determined on the basis of individual genotypes at 13 ISAG's recommended microsatellites, the most useful markers of choice for parentage identification. In the present study a total of 119 individuals were genotyped at 13 microsatellite loci and for possible parent-offspring combinations. A high level of genetic variation was evident within the investigated individuals as assessed from various genetic diversity measures. The mean number of observed alleles per microsatellite marker was 9.15 and the number of effective alleles as usual was less than the observed values (4.03). The average observed and expected heterozygosity values were 0.612 and 0.898, respectively. The mean polymorphic information content (PIC) value (0.694) further reflected a high level of genetic variability. The average exclusion of probability (PE) of the 13 markers was 0.520, ranging from 0.389 to 0.788. The combined exclusion of probability was 0.999, when 13 microsatellite loci were used for analysis in the individual identification system. Inbreeding was calculated as the difference between observed and expected heterozygosity. Observed homozygosity was less than expected which reflects inbreeding of -3.7% indicating that there are genetic differences between bull-sires and bull-dams used to produce young bulls. The results obtained from this study demonstrate that the microsatellite DNA markers used in the present DNA typing are useful and sufficient for individual identification and parentage verification without accurate pedigree information.

Inundating Disaster Assessment in Coastal Areas Using Urban Flood Model (도시홍수모델을 이용한 해안지역의 침수재해평가)

  • Yoo Hwan-Hee;Kim Weon-Seok;Kim Seong-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2006
  • In recent years, a large natural disasters have occurred due to worldwide abnormal weather and the amount of damage has been increased more resulting from high density population and a large-sized buildings of the urbanized area. In this study. we estimate the flooded area according to rainfall probability intensify and sea level in Woreong dong, Masan occurred flood damages by typhoon Maemi using SWMM, a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model in urban area, and then analyze the damage of flood expected area through connecting with GIS database. In result, we can predict accurately expected area of inundation according to the rainfall intensity and sea level rise through dividing the study area into sub-area and estimating a flooded area and height using SWMM. We provide also the shelter information available for urban planning and flood risk estimation by landuse in expected flood area. Further research for hazard management system construction linked with web or wireless communication technology expects to increase its application.

Identification of Major BIM-applicable Tasks with Contribution to Achieving Objectives and Expected Benefit in Construction Stage: Focused on the Case of Public Apartment Housing Projects (목표달성기여도와 예상적용효과에 의한 시공단계 BIM 주요 업무 도출 - 공공부문 공동주택 건설사업 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Song, Sanghoon;Bang, Jong-Dae;Sohn, Jeong-Rak
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2019
  • As a central part in smart construction, BIM has been rapidly spread in construction industry at large. However, the level of applying BIM in construction stage is still relatively lower than that in design stage due to unclear application method, inadequate design BIM model, technical faults of BIM itself, etc. Under these circumstances, public owners inevitably need to adjust the scope and pace in BIM application considering their internal support and capabilities of contractors. This study aims to suggest major BIM-applicable tasks during construction stage in the process of establishing gradual long-term and short-term introduction strategy for public apartment housing projects. Those major tasks were identified with the combination of the importance of tasks and the future benefits of BIM using IPA method. To do so, the degrees of contribution to achieving objectives in construction, current task execution, and communication requirement were investigated by internal site managers. On the other hand, the expected benefits and current level of using BIM were assessed by BIM experts. Among operational tasks by phases, design review, construction plan review, making as-built drawing, etc. were categorized as major tasks. In addition, progress control, regular meeting, master schedule development, work inspection, on-site quality check, etc. were also drawn as major tasks by management areas. The results of this study will provide the useful reference for owners concerned about the introduction of new technologies.

Optimization of Improvement Level for Second-Hand Product with Periodic Maintenance Schedule (주기적인 유지보수 계획에 따른 중고제품에 대한 최적 향상수준)

  • Kim, Dae-Kyung;Kim, Jin Woo;Park, Dong Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2013
  • Due to a growing demand for the second-hand product, especially for the expensive one, the warranty and maintenance policies for such products have been studied to improve the product reliability of late. In this paper we study a periodic maintenance model for the second-hand product which is purchased by the customer at the age of $x$. When purchased, the dealer provides a warranty of a fixed length during which the product is maintained periodically to reduce the failure rate of the product and thus, to improve the reliability after each maintenance is served. If a failure occurs between two successive maintenances, only minimal repair is conducted. As for the warranty policy, we adopt free non-renewing repair action on each failure, in addition to the periodic maintenance service during the warranty period. Thus, under the given warranty policy, all the maintenance and repair costs incurred during the warranty period are charged to the dealer. For the proposed periodic maintenance scheme, we formulate a cost model to evaluate the expected total cost charged to the dealer during the warranty period and derive an optimal upgrade level of the failure rate at each maintenance to minimize the expected total warranty cost from the perspective of the dealer. We also present numerical results for an optimal upgrade level based on the proposed methods.

Particle Swarm Optimization for Redundancy Allocation of Multi-level System considering Alternative Units (대안 부품을 고려한 다계층 시스템의 중복 할당을 위한 입자 군집 최적화)

  • Chung, Il Han
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.701-711
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The problem of optimizing redundancy allocation in multi-level systems is considered when each item in a multi-level system has alternative items with the same function. The number of redundancy of multi-level system is allocated to maximize the reliability of the system under path set and cost limitation constraints. Methods: Based on cost limitation and path set constraints, a mathematical model is established to maximize system reliability. Particle swarm optimization is employed for redundant allocation and verified by numerical experiments. Results: Comparing the particle swarm optimization method and the memetic algorithm for the 3 and 4 level systems, the particle swarm optimization method showed better performance for solution quality and search time. Particularly, the particle swarm optimization showed much less than the memetic algorithm for variation of results. Conclusion: The proposed particle swarm optimization considerably shortens the time to search for a feasible solution in MRAP with path set constraints. PS optimization is expected to reduce search time and propose the better solution for various problems related to MRAP.

Definition of 3D Modeling Level of Detail in BIM Regeneration Through Reverse Engineering - Case Study on 3D Modeling Using Terrestrial LiDAR - (역설계를 통해 BIM 구축시에 3D 모델링에 대한 세밀도(LoD) 정립 - 지상 LiDAR 활용한 3D 모델링 연구 중심 -)

  • Chae, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Ji-Yeong
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.8-20
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    • 2017
  • When it comes to set up the BIM through the reverse engineering, the level of detail(LoD) required for finalized outcomes is different from each purpose. Therefore, it is necessary to establish some concrete criteria which describe the definition of LoDs on 3D modeling for the purpose of each reverse engineering. This research shows the criteria of the 1) positional accuracy, 2) generalization level, 3) scale level, 4) scope of description, and 5) the area available for application by classifying LoD from 1 to 6 on 3D modeling for each purpose of reverse engineering. Moreover, through applying those criteria for the 3D point cloud dataset of building made by terrestrial LiDAR, this research finds out the working hour of 3D modeling of reverse engineering by each LoDs according to defined LoD criteria for each level. It is expected that those findings, how those criteria of LoD on reverse engineering are utilized for modeling-workers to decide whether the outcomes can be suitable for their budget, applicable fields or not, would contribute to help them as a basic information.

A Study on Earnings Management in Companies Achieving Sustainability: Accruals-based and Real Earnings Management

  • JI, Sang-Hyun;OH, Han-Mo;YOON, Ki-Chang;AN, Sang-Bong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - We attempted to verify the level of ethics of firms achieving sustainable management from the aspect of reliability of accounting information. Specifically, we evaluated the effects of sustainable management on accruals-based earning management (AEM) and real earning management (REM). Research design, data, and methodology - We employed the issuance of sustainability reports in addition to the indices of social responsibility and environmental-management evaluation of the Korea Corporate Governance Service in order to measure sustainability management. AEM was measured using discretionary accruals and calculated using the operant Jones model. Specifically, REM was measured using the methodology suggested by prior studies. The sample of our study consisted of 1,418 years of public listed firms in the Korea Stock Exchange from 2015 to 2017. Results - First, the level of AEM in firms achieving sustainable management was lower than the other. Second, the level of REM in these firms was lower than the other. Nonetheless, another analysis showed that the level of governance control affects the level of earning management and that the levels of AEM and REM were generally lower in firms achieving sustainable management than the others. Conclusions - We expected that firms achieving external ethics tend to have a higher level of internal ethics than others.