Determination of Incentive Level of Direct Load Control using Monte Carlo Simulation with Variance Reduction Technique

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 직접부하제어의 제어지원금 산정

This paper presents a new approach for determining an accurate incentive levels of Direct Load Control (DLC) program using sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques. The economic analysis of DLC resources needs to identify the hourly-by-hourly expected energy-not-served resulting from the random outage characteristics of generators as well as to reflect the availability and duration of DLC resources, which results the computational explosion. Therefore, the conventional methods are based on the scenario approaches to reduce the computation time as well as to avoid the complexity of economic studies. In this paper, we have developed a new technique based on the sequential MCS to evaluate the required expected load control amount in each hour and to decide the incentive level satisfying the economic constraints. And also the proposed approach has been considered multi-state as well as two-state of the generating units. In addition, we have applied the variance reduction technique to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the suggested method the numerical studies have been performed for the modified IEEE reliability test system.