• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimates

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THE STUDY OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATES USING CAUCHY VARIABLE KERNEL

  • Moon, Young-Il;Cha, Young-Il;Ashish Sharma
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2001
  • The frequency analyses for the precipitation data in Korea were performed. We used daily maximum series, monthly maximum series, and annual series. For nonparametric frequency analyses, variable kernel estimators were used. Nonparametric methods do not require assumptions about the underlying populations from which the data are obtained. Therefore, they are better suited for multimodal distributions with the advantage of not requiring a distributional assumption. In order to compare their performance with parametric distributions, we considered several probability density functions. They are Gamma, Gumbel, Log-normal, Log-Pearson type III, Exponential, Generalized logistic, Generalized Pareto, and Wakeby distributions. The variable kernel estimates are comparable and are in the middle of the range of the parametric estimates. The variable kernel estimates show a very small probability in extrapolation beyond the largest observed data in the sample. However, the log-variable kernel estimates remedied these defects with the log-transformed data.

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A Study on Proper Acquisition Cost Estimation Using the PRICE Model (PRICE모델을 이용한 적정 획득비용 추정 방안)

  • 한현진;강성진
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.10-27
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    • 2001
  • This paper deals with the application of PRICE model in estimating the proper acquisition cost for weapon budgeting phase. The PRICE(Parametric Review of Information for Costing and Evaluation) Hardware model is a computerized method for deriving cost estimates of electronic and mechanical hardware assemblies and systems. The model can be used in obtaining not only initial cost estimates in conceptual phase, but also detailed cost estimates in budgeting phase depending on available historical and empirical data. We analyzed first step cost estimate parameters and derived cost equations using PRICe output dta. Using weight and complexity, We can find cost variation. Sensitivity analysis shows that cost increases exponentially as complexity increases exponentially as complexity increases. We estimated KAAV\`s (Korea Amphibious Assault Vehicle) production cost using the PRICE model and compare with engineering cost estimates which is based on actual production data submitted by the production company. The result shows that tow estimates are close within $\pm2%$ differences.

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Use of the Centroid Method to Estimate Volumes of Japanese Red Cedar Trees in Southern Korea

  • Coble, D. W.;Lee, Young-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.123-127
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    • 2003
  • Cubic-meter volumes estimated from two proxy taper functions were compared to observed volumes of Japanese red cedar trees (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) to evaluate accuracy and precision in the centroid method. Centroid volume estimates were also compared to volume estimates from existing whole-tree volume equations developed for another geographic region. This study found that one proxy function produced unbiased volume estimates while the other was biased. Volume estimates from the whole-tree equations were also biased. However, the volume estimates from the whole-tree equations were more precise than those from the centroid method. These results support previous studies that the centroid method can produce reliable volumes of trees when no other reliable volume equations exist.

An Analysis of the Efficiency of Watermelon Using the Bootstrapping DEA Model (시설수박의 출하시기별 효율성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2018
  • The paper aims to estimate efficiency of watermelon by using a bootstrapping approach to generating efficiency estimates through Monte Carlo simulation resampling process. We use the input-output data for watermelon 107 farmers. The main results are as follows. The estimates of efficiency depends on the methodology. The estimates of general DEA is greater than the bootstrapping method. The technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency measure of watermelon is 0.72, 0.82 respectively. However the bias-corrected estimates are less than those of DEA. We know that the DEA estimator is an upward biased estimator. According to these results, the DEA bootstrapping model used here provides bias-corrected and confidence intervals for the point estimates, it is more preferable.

Comparison of Two Taper Functions in Estimating the Volume of Chamaecyparis obtusa Trees Using Centroid Method (중심치 방법을 이용한 편백림 간재적 추정을 위한 간곡선식의 비교)

  • Lee, Young-Jin;Kim, Hyung-Ho
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to compare volumes estimated from two taper functions and observed volumes of Chamaecyparis obtusa trees to evaluate accuracy and precision of centroid method. Centroid volume estimates were also compared with volume estimates from existing Forest Resources Evaluation and Prediction Program. The results of this study showed that Gregoire's simple taper function produced unbiased volume estimates while the others were biased. Volume estimates from the Forest Resources Evaluation and Prediction Program were also biased when applied in the Jangseong National Forest regions. These results suggested that the centroid method could produce reliable stem volumes of trees when no other reliable stem volume equations exist.

Bayesian Estimation of Three-parameter Bathtub Shaped Lifetime Distribution Based on Progressive Type-II Censoring with Binomial Removal

  • Chung, Younshik
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2747-2757
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    • 2018
  • We consider the MLE (maximum likelihood estimate) and Bayesian estimates of three-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution based on the progressive type II censoring with binomial removal. Jung, Chung (2018) proposed the three-parameter bathtub-shaped distribution which is the extension of the two-parameter bathtub-shaped distribution given by Zhang (2004). Jung, Chung (2018) investigated its properties and estimations. The maximum likelihood estimates are computed using Newton-Raphson algorithm. Also, Bayesian estimates are obtained under the balanced loss function using MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) method. In particular, BSEL (balanced squared error loss) function is considered as a special form of balanced loss function given by Zellner (1994). For comparing theirs MLEs with the corresponding Bayes estimates, some simulations are performed. It shows that Bayes estimates is better than MLEs in terms of risks. Finally, concluding remarks are mentioned.

Joint Phase and Frequency Offset Estimator for Short Burst MPSK Transmission with Preamble

  • Kim Seung-Geun;Lim Young-Kon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.4E
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    • pp.152-157
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, a new data-aided joint phase and frequency estimator, which has very low computational complexity, is proposed and its variances of phase and frequency estimates are derived. To estimate the phase and frequency offset, first of all, the overall observation interval is divided into same length sub-intervals, and then phase estimates are independently computed based on symbols of the each sub-intervals. To be continue the sequence of computed phase estimates, proper integer multiples of $2{\pi}$ are added to (or subtracted from) the computed phase estimates, which is called linearized phase estimate. The phase offset of the proposed joint estimator is estimated by averaging the linearized phase estimates and the frequency offset by averaging the differences between consecutive linearized phase estimates. The variance of the proposed phase offset estimate is same to MCRB of phase if there is no frequency offset, but it is smaller than MCRB of phase if there is frequency offset. However, the variance of the proposed frequency offset estimate is bigger by at least 0.5 dB than MCRB of frequency with the same observation interval.

Effect of Sex on Estimates of Genetic Parameters for Daily Gain and Ultrasonic Backfat Thickness in Swine

  • Hicks, C.;Satoh, M.;Ishii, K.;Kuroki, S.;Fujiwara, T.;Furukawa, T.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.677-681
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    • 1999
  • Estimates were made of genetic parameters for average daily gain (ADG) and average backfat thickness (ABF), and of the effect of sex on estimates of variance-covariance components for average daily gain of boars (DGM) and gilts (DGF) and average bacfat thickness of boars (BFM) and gilts (BFF) by residual maximum likelihood (REML) under a bivariate animal model. Data included a total of 2233 records (757 for boars and 1476 for gilts) of the Large White breed born between 1981 and 1986 in Miyazaki and Iwate prefectures in Japan. Heritability estimates for ADG and ABF were 0.43 and 0.69, respectively, with a genetic correlation of -0.08. Heritability estimates for DGM and DGF were 0.54 and 0.46, respectively, with a genetic correlation of 0.79, including that the two traits are influenced by similar but not identical genes. Respective estimates for BFM and BFF were 0.71 and 0.72 with a genetic correlation of 0.95, indicating that identical genes influence backfat thickness in boars and gilts.

Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Ultrasonic Estimates of Carcass Traits of Japanese Brown Cows

  • Sri Rachma Aprilita Bugiwati, T.D.;Harada, H.;Fukuhara, R.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.506-510
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    • 1999
  • A study was made of the effects of genetic and environmental factors on ultrasonic estimates of carcass traits of Japanese Brown cows. The M. longissimus thoracis area (MLTA), Subcutaneous (SFT) and Inter Muscular (IMFT) Fat Thickness, Rib Thickness (RT) and Beef Marbling Score (BMS) were scanned at the $7^th$ rib by ultrasound. Significant differences between sires, raising place, birth year and season were found for all traits. The heritabilities estimates for sire or Maternal Grand Sire (MGS) on ultrasonic estimates of carcass traits ranged from 0.05~0.14. Genetic and phenotypic correlations among the ultrasonic estimates were positive (0.13~0.88 and 0.24~0.75). Raising place effects were significant for all traits and the differences were between $30.8{\sim}33.5cm^2$ for MLTA and 0.46~0.67 for BMS. Cows born in 1988 tended to have high MLTA, SFT, IMFT and RT but low BMS. Cows born in spring tended to have high MLTA. Cows born in winter or autumn tended to have high BMS. The interaction effects of birth year with birth season were significant for both. MLTA and BMS.

Forecasting Methodology of 3G Mobile Services with Consideration of Policy Issues

  • Kim, Jin-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.190-194
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    • 2007
  • In most countries, mobile subscribers are already experiencing 3G-like services. At the moment of launching 3G services, lots of studies showed estimates of the number of subscribers for 3G services, using long-term demand curves, econometric methods or survey methodologies. Those studies mainly focused on the potential number of subscribers and the point of rapid growth rather than precise estimates for the services. Even though we've already experienced parts of 3G services, full length of 3G services are expecting in near future. Therefore, now we need to have more accurate estimates for 3G services. While we thought that 3G services were moved from 2G, in real place 3G services are being evolved from 2G services. In the process of evolving, regulators' policy affects service demand and diffusion significantly. For the more accurate estimates, we need to consider policy issues which influence service diffusion practically in real place. This study aims to present a model which shows better estimates for 3G services with consideration on policy issues, such as numbering issues, price regulation, and competition policy. The consideration can provide more accurate estimates for 3G services with service providers. The methodology could help academicians In forecasting of similar telecommunications services as well.

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