• 한국조경학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.51-58
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• 1998

The opening of an event in a given geographical area may be defined as an innovation. Visitors to the event adopt the innovation; therefore, their visitation patterns since the opening can be regarded as a diffusion process. Bass' model of diffusion process was applied to analyzing weekly visitation of Kwang-ju Viennale. Parameters of the Bass' model were estimated by regression analysis, and then reviewed in terms of applicability. Actual estimation of event visitation was implemented by calculation of the three parameters of the model based on the actual data. After comparing estimated value with actual value, it was concluded that Bass' model is applicable to estimating event visitation as far as it is the only prediction method available at this point.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.141-147
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• 2014

확산모형은 시장의 예측이나 그 방법론의 연구를 위해 마케팅에서 광범위하게 다뤄졌을 뿐 아니라, 경제학에서도 다양하게 활용되어 왔다. 특히 Bass 모형은 Rogers의 혁신확산 및 수명주기이론을 간단한 수리적 모형으로 표현할 수 있기에 혁신적 신제품의 채택과 확산을 설명하는데 널리 활용되었다. 그럼에도 불구, 확산모형은 '산업의 쌀' 이라 일컬어지는 반도체의 수요예측에 일부 선도적 연구를 제외하고는 활용된 바 없다. 이에 Bass 모형에서 진일보한 비선형회귀 접근법 확산모형을 활용, 전력반도체 중 전기전자기구의 필수 스위치로 채택되는 MOSFET의 수요를 추정하여 수명주기를 예측하고 그 과정을 설명함으로써 산업관계자는 물론 반도체와 전기전자산업 정책입안자에게 중요한 시사점을 전달하고자 한다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제57권11호
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• pp.1938-1945
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• 2008

Due to rapid economic growth, the usage of residential cooling electrical appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators has increased dramatically for the last decades. In other to reduce its energy consumption, the authorities have applied energy efficiency standards for principal appliances, including refrigerator. This paper estimates the distribution of refrigerators using the Bass Diffusion Model and then performs economic analysis corresponding to enhancement of energy efficiency more correctly than existing methods.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.74-82
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• 2011

The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it's performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.

• 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국품질경영학회 2006년도 추계 학술대회
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• pp.17-22
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• 2006

Online game industry is one of the most value added industry and continues to grow rapidly nowadays. This paper classifies the diffusion patterns of online games according to online game genre, estimates coefficients of innovation and imitation using Bass model, extracts the Bass-based adoption life cycle model which reflects the properties of each game, and then analyzes the diffusion pattern of each game. Through the research on the diffusion pattern of online games, if we can identify the characteristics of changing market and consumers in accordance with the product life cycle, we will provide the implications to the marketing strategy, which have to change at every stage of adoption life cycle, not to mention to investment plan.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.16-26
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• 2021

지구온난화 문제가 대두되어 세계 각국에서 수소전기차와 같은 친환경 자동차 보급이 증가하는 추세이다. 한국은 수소전기차 초기 시장 형성을 위해 차량 구매 시 보조금 지원, 세금감면 등 전폭적으로 지원하고 있다. 수소전기차 안전성에 있어 중요 핵심은 수소를 저장하는 내압용기로 정기적으로 검사해야 하나 기존 내압용기 검사소만으로는 수소전기차 내압용기 검사수요를 감당하기에는 역부족인 상황으로 수소전기차의 안전관리를 위한 내압용기 검사소 구축이 가장 중요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 전기차 판매 데이터를 이용하여 Bass 확산모델의 혁신 및 모방계수를 추정하고, 이를 Bass 확산모델에 적용하여 수소전기차의 지역별 보급 대수 및 수소 내압용기 검사수요를 예측하였다. 그 결과 2040년 국내 수소전기차 검사수요는 690,759대로 이를 대비하기 위해서는 191개소의 신규 수소전기차 내압용기 검사소와 검사인력 1,124명이 필요한 것으로 확인되었다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제41권5호
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• pp.488-498
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• 2015

Research on stem cells can be divided into three categories : pluripotent stem cell, adult stem cell, and induced pluripotent stem cell. Technology life cycle (TLC) on research stage is analyzed for the three stem cell categories based on diffusion model. Three diffusion models-logistic, Bass, and Bass model with integration constant (BMIC)-are applied to the number of articles related to each stem cell category in SCOPUS lists. Two different parameter estimation methods is used for each of logistic and Bass model. Results show that (1) the current year, 2015, lies in growth period at pluripotent stem cell and adult stem cell, and lies in growth period or maturity period at induced pluripotent stem cell. (2) Model fitness is the highest at BMIC model. (3) Imitation effect works best at the research area of induced pluripotent stem cell.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.45-55
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• 2015

This paper examines the diffusion of smartphones with a special emphasis on the diffusive interactions between Apple iOS and Google Android in a global context. Since the two mobile platforms were first introduced in the market, the use of smartphones has skyrocketed, suggesting that the dramatic diffusion of smartphones may be explained in part by the growth and competition of these two platforms. To study this, an extended Bass model is applied to a data set of quarterly smartphone sales between 2008 and 2013 for 15 countries. Our findings suggest that the innovation effect was more salient for iOS than for Android in developed countries, whereas the imitation effect was more striking for Android than for iOS in developing countries. Furthermore, our results from the co-diffusion model suggest that the diffusion of Android negatively affected by the diffusion of iOS, but not vice versa.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.233-243
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• 2001

중장기 수요예측을 위해 자주 사용되는 방법으로 확산모형과 성장곡선모형을 들 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이들 방법론의 성격 및 실제 적용에 있어 모수추정에 따른 문제점들을 살펴보고, 모수추정을 효율적으로 수행하기 위한 전략을 제시한다. 또한 실제 자료에 각 방법론들을 적용하여 예측결과를 비교한다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

Korea is expected to become a super-aged society by 2050. Given an aging population and the increasing pressure for the early retirement, a sufficient social safety net for elderly population becomes important. The Korean government introduced public reverse mortgage program in 2007, which is a product for aging seniors and the elderly, The number of reverse mortgage subscribers has also steadily grown. The demand continues to grow, but the reverse mortgage over a long period of time is a highly uncertain and risky product in the position of guarantee or lending institution. Thus, suitable demand prediction of the reverse mortgage subscribers is necessary for stable and sustainable operation. This study uses a Bass diffusion model to forecast the long-term demand for reverse mortgage and provides insight into reverse mortgage by forecasting demand for stability and substantiality of the loan product. We represent the projections of new subscribers on the basis of the data obtained from Korea Housing Finance Corporation. Results show that potential market size of Korean reverse mortgage reaches approximately 760,000-1,160,000 households by 2020. We validate the results by comparing the estimate of the cumulative number of subscribers with that found in literature.