Analyzing and Forecating of Event Visitation :Applicaton of Bass'Model of Diffusion Process

배스의 확산모형을 이용한 이벤트 방문수요 상측에 관한 연구

  • 엄서호 (경기대학교 관광개발학과)
  • Published : 1998.04.01


The opening of an event in a given geographical area may be defined as an innovation. Visitors to the event adopt the innovation; therefore, their visitation patterns since the opening can be regarded as a diffusion process. Bass' model of diffusion process was applied to analyzing weekly visitation of Kwang-ju Viennale. Parameters of the Bass' model were estimated by regression analysis, and then reviewed in terms of applicability. Actual estimation of event visitation was implemented by calculation of the three parameters of the model based on the actual data. After comparing estimated value with actual value, it was concluded that Bass' model is applicable to estimating event visitation as far as it is the only prediction method available at this point.



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