• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.555-563
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• 2014

The impacts of dynamic and thermodynamic schemes used in the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Los Alamos sea ice model, on sea ice concentration, extent and thickness over the Arctic and Antarctic regions are evaluated. Using the six dynamic and thermodynamic schemes such as sea ice strength scheme, conductivity scheme, albedo type, advection scheme, shortwave radiation method, and sea ice thickness distribution approximation, the sensitivity experiments are conducted. It is compared with a control experiment, which is based on the fixed atmospheric and oceanic forcing. For sea ice concentration and extent, it is found that there are remarkable differences between each sensitivity experiment and the control run over the Arctic and Antarctic especially in summer. In contrast, there are little seasonal variations between the experiments for sea ice thickness. In summer, the change of the albedo type has the biggest influence on the Arctic sea ice concentration, and the Antarctic sea ice concentration has a greater sensitivity to not only the albedo type but also advection scheme. The Arctic sea ice thickness is significantly affected by the albedo type and shortwave radiation method, while the Antarctic sea ice thickness is more sensitive to sea ice strength scheme and advection scheme.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.20-28
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• 2004

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model with 50-km spatial and 24-hour temporal resolution is used to investigate the spatial and long-term temporal variability of the sea ice cover the Arctic Basin. The model satisfactorily reproduces the averaged main characteristics of the sea ice and the sea ice extent in the Arctic Basin and its decrease in early 1990th. At times model allows to suppose partial recovery of sea ice cover in the last years of twenty century. The employment of explicit form for description of ridging gives opportunity to assume that the observed thinning is the result of reduction the intensity of ridging processes and to estimate long-term variability of probability the ridge free navigation in the different parts of the Arctic Ocean including the North Sea Route area.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.15-24
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• 2018

Sea ice plays an important role in modulating surface conditions at high and mid-latitudes. It reacts rapidly to climate change, therefore, it is a good indicator for capturing these changes from the Arctic climate. While many models have been used to study the predictability of climate variables, their performance in predicting sea ice was not well assessed. This study examines the predictability of the Arctic sea ice extent from ensemble prediction systems. The analysis is focused on verification of predictability in each model compared to the observation and prediction in particular, on lead time in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) scales. The S2S database now provides quasi-real time ensemble forecasts and hindcasts up to about 60 days from 11 centers: BoM, CMA, ECCC, ECMWF, HMCR, ISAC-CNR, JMA, KMA, Meteo France, NCEP and UKMO. For multi model comparison, only models coupled with sea ice model were selected. Predictability is quantified by the climatology, bias, trends and correlation skill score computed from hindcasts over the period 1999 to 2009. Most of models are able to reproduce characteristics of the sea ice, but they have bias with seasonal dependence and lead time. All models show decreasing sea ice extent trends with a maximum magnitude in warm season. The Arctic sea ice extent can be skillfully predicted up 6 weeks ahead in S2S scales. But trend-independent skill is small and statistically significant for lead time over 6 weeks only in summer.

• Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.133-137
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• 2017

The Arctic region remains surrounded by sea ice during most of the period of the year. In the Arctic Ocean the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has been used as an important route for shipping. The arctic sea ice is decreasing since 1979; hence needs to be monitored. In this research work sea ice concentration in the recent years and sea ice concentration anomalies of few months with long term sea ice concentration are studied. The climatology of long term ice concentration data from various satellites, and the recent sea ice concentration data from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) were used. The results show that sea ice concentration and sea ice extent in the Arctic region decreased by around 5% from 2015 to 2016, but in 2017 increased again in smaller amount in some areas like around Novaya Zemlya, and parts of the sea in between Greenland and Longyearbyen, and around Banks Island. The percentages of sea ice area in NSR for July 7 in 2015 to 2017 were 37%, 39% and 33%, respectively, indicating a large area (around ten thousand $km^2$) become ice free in 2017 compared to the previous year.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.379-386
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• 2010

This study examines changes in the Arctic sea ice associated with global warming by analyzing the climate coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) provided in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We selected nine models for better performance under 20th century climate conditions based on two different criteria, and then estimated the changes in sea ice extent under global warming conditions. Under projected 21st century climate conditions, all models, with the exception of the GISS-AOM model, project a reduction in sea ice extent in all seasons. The mean reduction in summer (-63%) is almost four times larger than that in winter (-16%), resulting an enhancement of seasonal variations in sea ice extent. The difference between the models, however, becomes larger under the 21st century climate conditions than under 20th century conditions, thus limiting the reliability of sea-ice projections derived from the current CGCMs.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.82-89
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• 2015

In this study, the characteristics of sea ice initial conditions generated from a global ocean and sea ice prediction system, the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO) - Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE)/NEMOVAR were analyzed for the period June 2013 to May 2014 over the Arctic region. For the purpose, the observed and reanalyzed data were used to compare with the sea ice initial conditions. Results indicated that the variability of the monthly sea ice extent and thickness in model initial conditions were well represented as compared to the observation, while it was found that the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice in initial data were narrower and thinner than those in reanalysis and observation for the period. The reason for the narrower sea ice extent in model initial conditions seems to be due to the fact that the initial sea ice concentration at the boundary area of sea ice was about 20 percent less than the reanalysis data. Also, the reason for the thinner sea-ice thickness in the Arctic region is due to the underestimation of Arctic sea ice thickness (about 60 cm) of the model initial conditions in the Arctic Ocean area adjacent to Greenland and Arctic archipelago where thick sea ice appears all the year round.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• v.2
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• pp.1019-1022
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• 2006

Satellite sea ice data from 1978 to the present reveal that the perennial ice (or ice that survives the summer) has been rapidly declining at almost 10% per decade. Warming due to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is now also being reflected in winter with drastic reductions in the maximum extent observed in 2005 and 2006. The retreat of the perennial ice also exposes more open water and has revealed an asymmetric distribution of chlorophyll a pigment concentration in the Arctic basin. Phytoplankton blooms are most dominant at high latitudes, partly on account of sea ice, but in the Arctic basin, it appears that pigment concentrations in the Eastern (Laptev Sea) Region are on the average three times higher than those in the Western (Beaufort Sea) Region. Such asymmetry suggests that despite favorable conditions provided by the melt of sea ice, there are other factors that affects the productivity of the region. The asymmetry is likely associated with much wider shelf areas in the East than in the West, with sea ice processes that inhibits the availability of nutrients near the surface in deep water regions, and river run-off that affects nutrient availability. The primary productivity in the pan-Arctic region have been estimated using the pigment concentrations and PAR derived from SeaWiFS data and the results show large seasonal as well as interannual variability during the 1998 to 2005 period. The data points towards increasing productivity for later years but with only 9 years of data it is too early to tell the overall effect of the sea ice retreat.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.423-434
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• 2009

The Arctic environment is sensitive to change of sea-ice distribution. The increase and decrease of sea ice work to an index of globe warming progress. In order to predict the progress of hereafter earth global warming, continuous monitoring regarding a change of the sea ice area in the Arctic should be performed. The remote sensing based on an artificial satellite is most effective on the North Pole. The sea ice observation using a passive microwave sensor has been continued from 1970's. The determination of sea ice extent and ice type is one of the great successes of the passive microwave imagers. In this paper, to investigate the seasonal and inter-annual variation of sea-ice distribution we used here the sea ice data from July 2002 to May 2009 around the Arctic within $60^{\circ}N$ for the AMSR-E 12.5km sea-ice concentration, a passive microwave sensor. From an early analysis of these data, the arctic sea-ice extent has been steadily decreasing at a rate of about 3.1%, accounting for about $2{\times}10^5\;km^2$, which was calculated for the sea-ice cover reaching its minimum extent at the end of each summer. It is also revealed that this trend corresponds to a decline in the multi-year ice that is affected mainly by summer sea surface and air temperature increases. The extent of younger and thinner (first-year) ice decreased to the 2007 minimum, but rapidly recovered in 2008 and 2009 due to the dramatic loss in 2007. Seasonal variations of the sea-ice extent show significant year-to-year variation in the seasons of January-March in the Barents and Labrador seas and August-October in the region from the East Siberian and Chukchi seas to the North Pole. The spatial distribution of multi-year ice (7-year old) indicates that the perennial ice fraction has rapidly shrunk recently out of the East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara seas to the high region of the Arctic within the last seven years and the Northeast Passage could become open year-round in near future.

• Strategy21
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• s.30
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• pp.200-235
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• 2012

Over the past few years, due to the climate change of the earth, the Arctic's sea ice cover is undergoing a historic transformation - thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and mitigation in the area of multi-year ice in the central Arctic Ocean. These changes allow for increases in maritime access throughout the Arctic Ocean and for potential longer seasons of navigation and possibly transarctic voyage in the summer. These changes also allow more exploration for oil, gas, and other minerals. The Arctic is now an archetype of the complex, multi-dimensional global problems of the twenty-first century. Military security, environmental security, and economic security interact. The potentially enormous economic stakes, sufficient to change the strategic balance among the states of the region, set off competitive pressures for national advantage. Korea, which is heavily dependent upon the sea lane in terms of transportation of its exports and imports, is very much interested in the Arctic sea routes. Korea believes that the Artic sea route, particularly the Northern Sea Route (NSR), could serve as a new useful sea lane, which will enable shorter times between East Asia and Europe, thus resulting in substantial cost saving for ship operators. In addition to shipping, Korea is interested in other Arctic-related maritime industries. Korea, as a leading shipbuilder in the global market, is interested in building ice breakers, drill ships, and other vessels which can contribute to safe operation in Arctic resource development and exploration. Korea, as one of the future stakeholders in Arctic maritime activities, should be ready to foster international cooperation in the region.

• Strategy21
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• s.43
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• pp.29-55
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• 2018

Arctic sea ice has been retreating as a result of the global warming. Arctic sea ice extent for April 2018 averaged 13.71 million square kilometers. This figure shows far less sea ice compared to the average extent from 1981 to 2010. Meanwhile, 287 times of maritime transits through the Northwest Passage have been made during the 2017 and the first ship traversed the Northern Sea Route without the assistant of ice-breaker in August 2017. Commercialization of the Arctic Passage means significant economic and strategic advantages by shortening the distance. In this article, 'Arctic Passage' means Northern Sea Route along the Arctic coast of Russia and Northwest Passage crossing Canadian Arctic Ocean. As climate changes, the potential feasibility of the Arctic Passage has been drawing international attention. Since navigation in this area remains hazardous in some aspects, IMO adopted Polar Code to promote safe, secure and sustainable shipping through the Arctic Passage. Futhermore, Russia and Canada regulate foreign vessels over the maritime zones with the authority to unilaterally exercise jurisdiction pursuant to the Article 234 of UNCLOS. The dispute over the navigation regime of the arctic passage materialized with Russia proclaimed Dmitrii Laptev and Sannikov Straits as historically belong to U.S.S.R. in the mid 1960s and Canada declared that the waters of the passage are historic internal waters in 1973 for the first time. So as to support their claims, In 1985, Russia and Canada established straight baseline including Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. The United States has consistently protested that the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage are straits used for international navigation which are subject to the regime of transit passage. Firstly, it seems that Russia and Canada do not meet the basic requirements for acquiring a historic title. Secondly, since the Law of the Sea had adopted before the establishment of straight baseline over the Russian Arctic Archipelago and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Ships can exercise at least the right of innocent passage. Lastly, Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage have fulfilled the both geographical and functional criteria pertaining to the strait used for international navigation under the international law. Especially, should the arctic passage become commercially viable, it can be expected to accumulate the functional criterion. Russia and Canada regulate the ships navigate in their maritime zones by adopting the higher degree of an environmental standard than generally accepted international rules and standard mainly under the Article 234 of UNCLOS. However, the Article 234 must be interpreted restrictively as this contains constraint on the freedom of navigation. Thus, it is reasonable to consider that the Article 234 is limited only to the EEZ of coastal states. Therefore, ships navigating in the Arctic Passage with the legal status of the territorial sea and the international straits under the law of the sea have the right of innocent passage and transit passage as usual.