• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.44-50
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• 2008

Focusing on the exponential smoothing method equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, a new method of estimating smoothing constant using exponential smoothing method is proposed. This study goes beyond the usual method of arbitrarily selecting a smoothing constant. First, an estimation of the ARMA model parameter was made and then, the smoothing constants. The empirical example shows that the theoretical solution satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. The new method was also applied to the stock market price of electrical machinery industry (6 major companies in Japan) and forecasting was accomplished. Comparing the results of the two methods, the new method appears to be better than the ARIMA model. The result of the new method is apparently good in 4 company data and is nearly the same in 2 company data. The example provided shows that the new method is much simpler to handle than ARIMA model. Therefore, the proposed method would be better in these general cases. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.34-49
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• 1984

The stability of machine tool systems is analyzed by considering the machining process as a stochastic process without decomposing into machine tool structural dynamics and cutting processes. In doing so the time series analysis technique developed by Wu and Pandit is applied systematically to the relative vibration between cutting tool and work- piece measured under actual working conditions. Various characteristic properties derived from the fitted ARMA(Autoregressive Moving Average) Models and those from raw data directly are investigated in relation with the system stability. Both damping ratio and absolute value of the characteristic roots of the AR part of the most significant dynamic mode are preferred as stability indicating factors to the other pro-perties such as theoretical variance .gamma. (o) or absolute power of the most dominant dynamic mode. Maximum aplitude during a certain interval and variance estimated from raw data are shown to be very sensi- tive to the type of the signal and the location of measurement point although they can be obtained rather easily. The relative vibration signal is also analyzed by FFT(Fast Fourier Transform) Analyzer for the purpose of comparison with the spectrums derived from the fitted ARMA models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.267-277
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• 2016

This paper considers we consider the estimation of copula parameters based on residuals in stochastic regression models. We prove that a semiparametric estimator using residual empirical distributions is consistent under some conditions and apply the results to the copula-ARMA model. We provide simulation results for illustration.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.86-94
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• 2002

The initial alignment of inertial platform for navigation system was considered. An adaptive filtering technique is developed for the system with unknown and varying sway disturbance. It is assumed that the random sway motion is the second order ARMA(Auto Regressive Moving Average) model and performed parameter identification for unknown parameters. Designed adaptive filter contain both a Kalman filter and a self-tuning filter. This filtering system can automatically adapt to varying environmental conditions. To verify the robustness of the filtering system, the computer simulation was performed with unknown and varying sway disturbance.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.1089-1098
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• 2018

This study aims at developing and applying a hybrid model to the wind power prediction (WPP). The hybrid model for a very-short-term WPP (VSTWPP) is achieved through analytical data, multiple linear regressions and least square methods (MLR&LS). The data used in our hybrid model are based on the historical records of wind power from an offshore region. In this model, the WPP is achieved in four steps: 1) transforming historical data into ratios; 2) predicting the wind power using the ratios; 3) predicting rectification ratios by the total wind power; 4) predicting the wind power using the proposed rectification method. The proposed method includes one-step and multi-step predictions. The WPP is tested by applying different models, such as the autoregressive moving average (ARMA), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN). The results of all these models confirmed the validity of the proposed hybrid model in terms of error as well as its effectiveness. Furthermore, forecasting errors are compared to depict a highly variable WPP, and the correlations between the actual and predicted wind powers are shown. Simulations are carried out to definitely prove the feasibility and excellent performance of the proposed method for the VSTWPP versus that of the SVM, ANN and ARMA models.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.415-420
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• 2014

Another crucial issue is a providing secondary user(SU) with the its guaranteed quality of service(QoS) in cognitive radio systems, from the SU view to be allowed to opportunistically utilize the primary user(PU) spectrum on non-interfering. In this paper, we propose a bandwidth reallocation scheme for reducing SU dropping rate through renegotiation of requested channel numbers when available bandwidth is not enough for accepting the spectrum handoff SUs. We categorize SU calls into two types : the first priority and the second priority SU, and the first SU' service is supported by bandwidth reservation based on ARMA prediction model for PU arrivals, while the second SU's bandwidth demands for spectrum handoff is to be reallocated through their renegotiation. Simulation results show that our scheme can improve SU dropping rate and system resource utilization efficiency by bandwidth reallocation.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 1980

For an ordinary engineer or researcher there are too diversified branches or even disciplines which have their own jargon to complicate an easy access, Nevertheless in many cases an isomorphism or even identity of notions exist to escape our grasp when expressed in different discipline or context, In this paper the masterwork of Box and Jenkins is introduced to accustom a few terms of statisticiens, to be followed by the technique of smoothing filtering of Wiener and Kalman - Bucy. The advantages of a transform (for example Hadamard) technique are explaned as well as authors personal philosophical views.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.183-193
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• 1994

The dynamic equation of a flexible robot manipulator is formulated by the assumed-mode method and the Lagrange equation. The controller is designed for a flexible robot manipulator including a joint actuator. The controller consists of a parmaeter estimator and the adaptive controller. A parameter estimator evaluates ARMA model`s parameter using RLS algorithm. An adaptive controller is designed based on a reference model and a minimum prediction error controller.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.83-91
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• 1990

An adaptive observer which is applicable to discrete linear time invariant systems of ARMA type in the presence of noise is proposed. It first estimates the system parameters of the MA type by applying only the system input to the observer. Then it estimates the output which corresponds to the output of the system without any noise. This is a special case of Suzuki's adaptive observer. This estimated output is applied to Suzuki's adaptive observer to estimate the system parameters of ARMA type and the states. The proposed method can make the estimate errors of the system parameters sufficiently small even in the presence of noise in the system. It can also make the estimate errors of the states of the system sufficiently small when there is no process noise. These properties of the proposed adaptive observer is certified by computer simulation.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.65-72
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• 2003

Internet roundtrip delay/time (RTT) prediction plays an important role in detecting packet losses in reliable transport protocols for traditional web applications and determining proper transmission rates in many rate-based TCP-friendly protocols for Internet-based real-time applications. The widely adopted autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model with fixed-parameters is shown to be insufficient for all scenarios due to its intrinsic limitation that it filters out all high-frequency components of RTT dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a novel parameter-varying RTT model for Internet roundtrip time prediction based on the information theory and the maximum entropy principle (MEP). Since the coefficients of the proposed RTT model are updated dynamically, the model is adaptive and it tracks RTT dynamics rapidly. The results of our experiments show that the MEP algorithm works better than the ARMA method in both RTT prediction and RTO estimation.