• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률대응법

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A study for the target water level of the dam for flood control (댐 홍수조절을 위한 목표수위 산정연구)

  • Kwak, Jaewon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.545-552
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    • 2021
  • The burden of flood control on the dam under frequently flood due to climate change and especially heavy flood in 2020 year are come to the forward and increased. The objective of the study is therefore to establish the method to estimate capacity and target water level for flood control in actual dam management. Frequency matching method was applied to establish a pair of cumulative distribution function (CDF) based on daily dam inflow and discharge records. The relationship between dam storage and discharge volume represented as a percentage of inflow volume was derived and its characteristics was analyzed. As the result, the Soyanggang (45%) and Chungju Dam (39%) contributing to flood control with temporarily storing flood runoff. The method and diagram to estimate flood control capacity and target water level for flood control in the dam were established. The result of the study could be used as a supplementary data for flood control of the dam according to the rainfall prediction on the Korea Meteorological Administration.

Act on the flood control plan for urban river basins (도시하천유역 침수피해대책법안의 주요 내용)

  • Kim, Sang Ug
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.422-422
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    • 2023
  • 최근 발생되고 있는 도시지역에서의 침수피해는 과거와는 다른 양상으로 발생되고 있으며, 이로 인해 많은 재산피해와 소중한 인명피해가 발생되고 있다. 도시지역의 침수피해는 다양한 원인에 의해 피해가 발생된다. 기후변화로 인해 발생되는 높은 강우강도의 집중호우로부터 도시 피복의 불투수화나 부족한 우수유출저감시설로 인한 침투비율의 감소에 따른 유출량의 증대, 짧은 도달시간으로 인한 빠른 하천수위의 상승, 빠른 하천수위의 상승으로 인해 발생되는 하수도의 만관에 따른 관수로화로 인한 역류 발생, 역류된 홍수류의 도시 내 저지대로의 유입, 최대 조위와 맞물려 발생되는 홍수류 배제의 어려움 등은 도시침수라는 결과를 제공하는 주요 원인으로 작동하고 있다. 이러한 현실은 도시지역에서의 침수대책의 수립에 있어 과거와는 다른 특정한 대책의 수립이 필요하다는 점을 시사해 주고 있다. 특히 도시침수를 발생시키는 주요 원인에 대한 개별적인 대책수립보다는 도시침수의 발생확률이 높은 지역에 대해서는 이러한 원인을 종합적으로 고려하여 이를 방어할 수 있는 효율적이고 실제적인 계획을 수립할 필요가 있다. 우리나라는 현재 행정안전부의 자연재해저감종합계획, 환경부의 특정하천유역치수계획 및 하수도정비기본계획을 기본으로 소하천정비기본계획, 하천기본계획 등 소관 부처를 달리하는 다양한 계획들을 수립하여 홍수로부터 귀중한 자산을 보호하려는 노력을 시행하고 있다. 이러한 계획들은 주로 홍수에 대비하고자 하는 특정 구조물의 설계를 중심으로 하고 있으며, 설계에는 항상 경제성의 개념이 수반되므로 설계용량을 초과하는 자연재해의 발생에 대해서도 홍수 발생에 대비하기 위해서는 홍수예보 및 재난대응체계의 운용과 같은 비구조물적인 대책도 매우 중요하게 활용되어야 한다. 이와 같은 현실에서 도시지역의 침수피해를 방지하기 위해서는 이제 과거와는 달리 개별법에 의해 수립되는 각종 계획들을 특정공간에 대해서 종합적으로 고찰하고 최적화하여 현실적이고 효율적인 하나의 계획으로 수립될 필요가 있으며, 하천을 중심으로 시행되고 있는 홍수예보와 유사한 도시침수예보와 같은 비구조물적 대책의 기술적 제고와 시행의 확산이 매우 시급한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 최근 발의된 「도시하천유역 침수피해방지대책법(안)」의 경과와 이 법률에서 다루고 있는 주요 내용들을 살펴봄으로써 향후 우리나라가 지향해야 할 도시지역의 침수피해에 어떻게 대응해나가야 하는지에 관해 살펴보았다.

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An Accuracy Estimation of AEP Based on Geographic Characteristics and Atmospheric Variations in Northern East Region of Jeju Island (제주 북동부 지역의 지형과 대기변수에 따른 AEP계산의 정확성에 대한 연구)

  • Ko, Jung-Woo;Lee, Byung-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2012
  • Clarify wind energy productivity depends on three factors: the wind probability density function(PDF), the turbine's power curve, and the air density. The wind PDF gives the probability that a variable will take on the wind speed value. Wind shear refers to the change in wind speed with height above ground. The wind speed tends to increase with the height above ground. also, Wind PDF refers to the change with height above ground. Wind analysts typically use the Weibull distribution to characterize the breadth of the distribution of wind speeds. The Weibull distribution has the two-parameter: the scale factor c and the shape factor k. We can use a linear least squares algorithm(or Ln-least method) and moment method to fit a Weibull distribution to measured wind speed data which data was located same site and different height. In this study, find that the scale factor is related to the average wind speed than the shape factor. and also different types of terrain are characterized by different the scale factor slop with height above ground. The gross turbine power output (before accounting for losses) was caculated the power curve whose corresponding air density is closest to the air density. and air desity was choose two way. one is the pressure of the International Standard Atmosphere up to an elevation, the other is the measured air pressure and temperature to calculate the air density. and then each power output was compared.

Flood Modeling in the Donam Stream Using Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우-유출모형을 이용한 도남천 지역 하천범람 모델링)

  • Lee, Dong Hyeok;Jun, Kye Won;Kim, Il Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.167-167
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    • 2021
  • 2018년 재해연보에 따르면 최근 10년간 자연재해는 태풍과 호우에 의한 평균피해액이(301,680백만원) 전체 재해평균피해액(344,124백만원)의 87.6%로 나타났다. 이처럼 물 관련 재해가 다른 재해에 비해 상대적으로 큰 비중을 차지하는 대표적 원인은 국지성 집중호우의 발달과 개발로 인한 불투수면적의 증가 및 지표면 유출량의 증가등이 있다. 이러한 요인들로 하천범람이 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며 이에 대응할 치수계획수립이 필요한 실정이다. 세종특별자치시의 하천기본계획(2020.01)에 따르면 세종특별자치시의 금남면 도남리의 도남천지구는 제방고 및 여유고 부족과 인명 및 재산피해 우려 지역으로 하천재해 위험지구로 선정되었다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 도남천지구에 강우-유출모형을 적용하여 빈도별 월류위치 파악과 하천범람지도를 작성하여 대피범위등 유역치수계획수립시 기초자료에 활용 되고자 한다. 강우분석을 위한 강우관측소 선정은 티센망 확인을 통하여 공주시(반포중) 강우관측소를 선정하였다. 강우분석은 자료기간이 짧은 강우관측소에서도 확률강우량을 산정할 수 있는 지역빈도해석을 하였으며 분석결과 적합한 확률분포형은 GEV인 것으로 나타났다. 빈도별 홍수량 산정을 위해 HEC-HMS모형을 이용하였으며 산정방법은 깅우-유출 관계 분석 방법에 의한 다양한 합성단위도 방법중 일관성과 객관성이 입증되어 온 Clark단위도 법을 사용하였다. 산정한 홍수량을 HEC-RAS모형에 적용하여 월류구간을 파악하였으며 월류위치 및 대피범위를 가시화 하기 위해 HEC-GeoRAS모형을 사용하여 빈도별 하천범람지도를 작성하였다. 본 연구는 도남천지구에 빈도별 하천범람지도를 작성 하였다. 이를 통하여 하천범람시 대피범위등 유역치수계획 수립 시 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

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An Optimal Investment Planning Model for Improving the Reliability of Layered Air Defense System based on a Network Model (다층 대공방어 체계의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 네트워크 모델 기반의 최적 투자 계획 모델)

  • Lee, Jinho;Chung, Suk-Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2017
  • This study considers an optimal investment planning for improving survivability from an air threat in the layered air defense system. To establish an optimization model, we first represent the layered air defense system as a network model, and then, present two optimization models minimizing the failure probability of counteracting an air threat subject to budget limitation, in which one deals with whether to invest and the other enables continuous investment on the subset of nodes. Nonlinear objective functions are linearized using log function, and we suggest dynamic programming algorithm and linear programing for solving the proposed models. After designing a layered air defense system based on a virtual scenario, we solve the two optimization problems and analyze the corresponding optimal solutions. This provides necessity and an approach for an effective investment planning of the layered air defense system.

Optimal Weapon-Target Assignment Algorithm for Closed-In Weapon Systems Considering Variable Burst Time (가변 연속사격 시간을 고려한 근접 방어 시스템의 최적 무장 할당 알고리듬)

  • Kim, Bosoek;Lee, Chang-Hun;Tahk, Min-Jea;Kim, Da-Sol;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Hyun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.365-372
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    • 2021
  • This paper deals with an optimal Weapon-Target Assignment (WTA) algorithm for Closed-In Weapon Systems (CIWS), considering variable burst time. In this study, the WTA problem for CIWS is formulated based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Unlike the previous study assuming that the burst time is fixed regardless of the engagement range, the proposed method utilizes the variable burst time based on the kill probability according to the engagement range. Thus, the proposed method can reflect a more realistic engagement situation and reduce the reaction time of CIWS against targets, compared to the existing method. In this paper, we first reformulate the existing MILP-based WTA problem to accommodate the variable burst Time. The proposed method is then validated through numerical simulations with the help of a commercial optimization tool.

Probability-Based USD Code for Reinforced Concrete (확률이론(確率理論)에 기초(基礎)한 철근(鐵筋)콘크리트 강도설계규준(强度設計規準))

  • Cho, Hyo Nam;Chang, Dong Il;Shin, Jae Chul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 1986
  • This study is directed to propose a probability based LRFD design code, which could possibly replace the traditional USD provisions of the current code, based on the AFOSM reliability theory. The uncertainties of resistances and load effects for each R.C. structural elements are evaluated and adopted considering our practice, and a set of rational target reliability indices are selected based on the calibration with the reliability of the current R.C. design code and by considering the desired hierarchy of safety level. Then, a set of common load factors are chosen from the results of load and resistance factors which are computed by AFOSM method using the Rackwitz-Fiessler's efficient practical algorithm which is to transform the non-normal variables into the equivalent normal variables. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD code for the R.C. building structures may have to be incorporated into the current RC. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.

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The Healing Effects of Concentration Meditation(CM) on Mind-Body - Focusing on Meditation of Dhammakaya Temple - (집중명상(Concentration Meditation:CM)이 심신치유(心身治癒)효과에 미치는 영향 -태국 담마까야(Dhammakaya)사원 명상법 중심으로-)

  • Seo, Byung-Chan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.534-546
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to prove the positive effect of mind and body healing through the modified meditation method of Southern Buddhism as a systematic practice to concentrate or empty consciousness of the Buddhist temple in Dhammakaya, Thailand. To investigate the effects of the program on the participants, the experimental measurement tools in this study include the Immeasurable scale, spirituality scale, simple mental test scale, and blood pressure scale, pulse meter, thermometer, and recorder. When the measured values were compared with the corresponding t-test, there were some differences before and after the measurements based on the significance probability p <0.05. As a result, there was a significant correlation between spiritual support scale and the Immeasurable scale. In addition, the results of analyzing the data through interviews showed that the body and physiologically effective concentration was well after the meditation experience, and the intention to actively utilize this meditation method was confirmed. In this study, it was confirmed that there was a positive effect of the Samata practice method of Concentration meditation(CM), and thus the theoretical and experimental effects of intensive meditation were presented. I hope that these studies will accumulate and follow-up studies will be conducted through intensive meditation as a healing effect.

Comparison of Disaster Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Heat Wave Disasters (폭염재해의 재해취약성분석 및 리스크 평가 비교)

  • Yu-Jeong SEOL;Ho-Yong KIM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the frequency and intensity of heat waves due to the increase in climate change temperature are increasing. Therefore, this study tried to compare the evaluation process and evaluation results of the heat wave disaster evaluation, which is the government's analysis of the heat wave disaster vulnerability and the risk evaluation method recently emphasized by the IPCC. The analysis of climate change disaster vulnerability is evaluated based on manuals and guidelines prepared by the government. Risk evaluation can be evaluated as the product of the possibility of a disaster and its impact, and it is evaluated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Bayesian estimation method, which uses prior information to infer posterior probability. As a result of the analysis, the two evaluation results for Busan Metropolitan City differed slightly in the spatial distribution of areas vulnerable to heat waves. In order to properly evaluate disaster vulnerable areas due to climate change, the process and results of climate change disaster vulnerability analysis and risk assessment must be reviewed, and consider each methodology and countermeasures must be prepared.

An Analysis on Climate Change and Military Response Strategies (기후변화와 군 대응전략에 관한 연구)

  • Park Chan-Young;Kim Chang-Jun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2023
  • Due to man-made climate change, global abnormal weather phenomena have occurred, increasing disasters. Major developed countries(military) are preparing for disasters caused by extreme weather appearances. However, currently, disaster prevention plans and facilities have been implemented based on the frequency and intensity method based on statistical data, it is not enough to prepare for disasters caused by frequent extreme weather based on probability basis. The U.S. and British forces have been the fastest to take research and policy approaches related to climate change and the threat of disaster change, and are considering both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The South Korean military regards the perception of disasters to be storm and flood damage, and there is a lack of discussion on extreme weather and disasters due to climate change. In this study, the process of establishing disaster management systems in developed countries(the United States and the United Kingdom) was examined, and the response policies of each country(military) were analyzed using literature analysis techniques. In order to maintain tight security, our military should establish a response policy focusing on sustainability and resilience, and the following three policy approaches are needed. First, it is necessary to analyze the future operational environment of the Korean Peninsula in preparation for the environment that will change due to climate change. Second, it is necessary to discuss climate change 'adaptation policy' for sustainability. Third, it is necessary to prepare for future disasters that may occur due to climate change.