• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.125-125
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 의한 자연재해 취약성을 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 기상인자와 재해발생으로 인한 피해액의 상관관계를 이용하였다. 재해로 인한 피해액은 1994년부터 2008년까지 15년간 전국 시군별로 피해액을 집계한 자료를 이용하였으며, 우리나라 58개 강우관측소의 일강수량 자료를 이용하여 재해에 영향을 줄 수 있는 네 가지 인자를 추출하였고, 연도별 태풍 발생 횟수도 하나의 기상인자로 고려하였다. 피해액의 규모는 가뭄, 화재, 태풍 및 해일 등 재해발생 유형에 따라서도 영향을 받겠지만, 기후변화 시나리오에 의해 예측할 수 있는 대표적인 미래 추정값은 강수량과 온도 등이며, 결국 재해발생 유형별 시나리오에 의한 재해규모 예측이 아닌 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 미래 재해발생 규모 모형을 구축하기 위해서는 관련 인자로서 강수량으로부터 추출한 인자들을 고려할 수밖에 없을 것이다. 일강수량으로부터 추출한 네 가지 영향인자들은 80mm이상 일강수량 발생일수, 80mm이상 일강수량의 합, 80mm이상 강우의 발생 간격이 30일 이하인 횟수 및 연최대강수량이다. 우선 광역시와 도별로 전국 58개 관측소를 분류하고, 해당 관측소들로부터 추출된 인자들의 평균값을 이용하여 연구를 진행하였다. 미래 강수량 자료는 국립기상연구소의 A2시나리오를 통계학적 Downscaling을 통해 재생산한 자료를 이용하였다. 예측모형은 Bayesian 모형을 기반으로 DEXP(double exponential distribution) 확률분포를 이용하였다. 재해피해액 를 아래와 같이 비정상성 모형으로 구성하였으며, 위치매개 변수의 확률분포를 네 가지 기상인자에 의한 회귀식으로 구성하였다. Y damage costs) = dexp(${\mu}(t),\tau(t)$) $p({\mu}(t))\sim(abs({\alpha}+{\alpha}_1X_1+{\alpha}_2X_2+{\alpha}_3X_3+{\alpha}_4X_4,\;\sigma_{\alpha}^2)$ $p(\tau){\sim}G(k,s)$.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.4D
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• pp.459-465
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• 2009

u-T (ubiquitous transportation) environment can be envisioned as an advanced version of ITS environment and be expected to provide more advanced transportation service in a ubiquitous manner. As a basic necessity to measure traffic flow in both environments, a flow estimation method was proposed. Flows have been measured in existing ITS and in a new u-T environments and some differences were investigated using simulation technique. In the interrupted traffic situation, the flow rate of u-T is 3.58% higher than that in ITS environment. Both MARE and MAE, which were used as measure of effectiveness, in u-T were better since the results are 31.4% and 31.1% lower than in ITS, respectively. Besides the equality coefficient in u-T was 1.9% higher than that in ITS. Such being the case, the flow rate measured in u-T using U-TSN is more reliable and can be expected to be successfully used for transportation system design or traffic operation areas.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

At present, Korean one-person households have been continuously increased in spite of the reduction of total population. The increasement of one-person household has become a social and institutional issue. It is necessary to response socially and economically to not only changes of housing demand but also the disadvantaged classes such as the socially weak and single elderly household from the national level. In this respect, this research examined the spatial distribution (such as the increasing area, high-density area, and majority area) of one-person household with census data in the city of Busan. The clusters of one-person households were selected by focusing on the spatial distributions by time series changes of 2000, 2005, and 2010 and considering their housing characteristics. In terms of policy efficiency, the clusters of one-person households to be supported by priority were derived by analyzing the census data from 6066 output areas in the city of Busan. As a result, lots of one-person households of juniors were distributed around the university town, office facility, and station service area. Lots of one-person households at middle-aged class were distributed in Busan's original downtown and mountain-side road. Generalizing these characteristics, cluster analysis was conducted. As a result, one-person household dense area in Busan could be classified into four types. This research should be utilized as a counterplan for increasing the housing demand of one-person household or basic data for supporting small housing supply policies in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.363-372
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• 2016

Two-stage sample designs are commonly used for household surveys in Korea using as clusters the enumeration districts (EDs). Since clustering decomposes the population variation into within- and between-cluster variations, the sample sizes allocated in stages can affect the overall precision. Alternative clusters are often considered due to diverse reasons such as the EDs' limitation in size, being out-of-date, and in-assessibility to their household lists. In addition, the EDs are currently under development by the Statistics Korea as an joint effort toward their transition from the traditional practice to the register census from 2015. We present an approach for evaluating the difference in the precision of the mean estimators of the sets of the cluster units in between a hierachical and nested form, where the design effect is used to reflect the effect of the clustering and the sample allocation. We also demonstrate our approach using the U.S. Census counts from the year 2000 for Anne Arundel County in Maryland. Our research shows that the within-cluster variance can be significantly different for survey variables and thus the choice of cluster units and the associated sample allocation scheme should reflect the corresponding variance decomposition due to clustering.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.97-106
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• 2011

Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.134-143
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• 2017

In the case of highway, there may be a large number of travel time groups when there are a bus exclusive lane, a rest area, a sleeping shelter, etc. in the corresponding section. In most of the conventional travel time estimation studies, one representative travel time (assuming normal distribution) group is assumed in the low sample collection state, and if it is out of the specified range, it is determined as outliers and then the travel time is estimated. However, if there is a bus exclusive lane, a rest area, or a sleeping shelter in the relevant section, such as the highway, the distribution of travel time will be in the form of a bi-modal or a multi-modal, rather than a regular distribution. Therefore, applying the existing estimation methodology may result in distorted results. To solve this problem, first, it should be reliable even in the case of insufficient number of samples. Second, we propose a methodology to select the representative time group among a number of time groups and to estimate the representative time using individual time data of the selected time group.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.656-662
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• 2016

Based on time dependent location data of mobile phone users, users' ODs were produced after tracing their travel route and inducing their origins and destinations. System considered average signalizing frequency, which means that the longer the travel length is the more frequent the signal is. This is a home-based OD and is limited to the Seoul Metropolitan area. The OD matrix from the mobile phone data which was aggregated to the cell and transformed to the 'Dong' area, was compared to the KTDB OD. The results can be analyzed and it was determined that they are highly correlated because individual coefficients are 0.98 and 0.85, the former between the OD of this study and the KTDB Si/Gun/Gu unit area OD and the latter between the OD of this study and the Dong unit area KTDB OD.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.71-83
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• 2009

This paper is written to analyze possible problems encountered with the existing data for the monitoring of land use and land cover change over the Korean peninsula and, further, to provide technical alternatives for the future land monitoring over the area. The oldest type of non-spatial data related to the land use change are cadastral statistics obtained since 1911. Annual statistics of cadastral data in early years (before 1942) can be used to assess land use change over the area. However, the cadastral statistics after the Korean War are not very appropriate for land use monitoring since the land class in cadastral data does not always correspond with actual land cover status. Majority of spatial data available for land monitoring over the area are land cover maps classified from satellite imagery since early 1970's. To analyze the suitability of land cover maps that were produced by two separate institutes with about 10 years interval, we conducted simple change detection analysis using these maps. These maps were not quite ready to be compared each other, in which they did not have the same class definition, classification method, and geometric registration. To achieve continuous and effective monitoring of land use and land cover change, particularly over North Korea, we should have a standard scheme in type and season of satellite imagery, image classification procedure, and class definition, which also should correspond to international standards.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.1155-1167
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• 2009

We made a new sample design for life and consciousness survey of Kyungpook people in 2007. We used the 10% sample survey data of 2005 population and housing census as a survey population. After stratification, we allocate proportionally samples within strata after examining various characteristics in previous survey, which includes economic activity state, an income level per year, and housing possession. And we calculated weight in a new sample design and derived estimators and a formula of standard error using the weights.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.111-127
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• 2002

As the utilization of official statistics has been recently increased, the necessity of objective quality assessment also has been increased. Since mean square error(MSE) and response rate, which have been considered as representative quality indicators in the past, may have the limits of use, it has been demanded to develop new quality indicators which are able to reflect the various requirements of users. In this paper, regarding sample surveys conducted by governmental agencies, the flow of procedures in statistics production is analyzed using input-output of each procedure. As the result, how to identify and develop quality indicators for each procedure is discussed, with some instances of indicators. Finally, the quality index using the results of quality assessment would be calculated based on a weighting method by the size of deviation of statistical measures.