• Title/Summary/Keyword: 델파이분석기법

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Analysis of Factors to Measure Information Communication Ethics of Adolescents Using Delphi and AHP (Delphi와 AHP를 활용한 청소년의 정보통신윤리 의식 측정 요인 분석)

  • Cho, Seong-Hwan;Kim, Seong-Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • The goal of the education of Information Communication Ethics(ICE) is to improve the consciousness level of adolescents so that they themselves are able to judge between what's ethically right and wrong and, as a result, to take the right behavior. For this, we need to preferentially identify the primary factors in understanding and diagnosing the consciousness level of adolescents on the ICE. To solve this problem, in this paper, we identified four major indices that consist of the ICE consciousness through the meta analysis of the both domestic and international researches from the past 5 years in the related area and then, they are validated by experts. We also analyzed the factors in assessing the ICE consciousness level of adolescents by using the Delphi technique, which, during its analysis, even considers elements that are qualitative or cannot be objectified. Finally we deduced 22 ICE factors given the weight through the AHP of an expert group that consists of experienced teachers and professors in the related area.

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Practical Review of Analysis Techniques for Patronage Ramp-up (Ramp-up 분석기법에 대한 실증적 고찰)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Chang, Justin Su-Eun;Kim, Ki-Min;Kim, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2008
  • This study examines the ramp-up analysis techniques which have been introduced till now and presents the strength and weakness of each method. The applicability of each technique was reviewed using a case study involving the data of Cheonan-Nonsan motorway usages where seasonal variations of the data were removed. The results showed that all the techniques except F-test have the same ramp-up period of 12 months. The level of Tamp-up was 65%-72% compared to that of the real traffic volume at the beginning of opening. The demand recovered to the stabilized level as time goes on. To apply the methodology to practical demand forecasts actual surveys of real data of traffic demand should be performed. With these efforts to the patronage ramp-up, more reliable demand analyses can be accompanied.

Identifying Problems and Suggesting Improvements for the Scuba Rescue Curriculum Using the Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 활용한 스쿠버 레스큐 교육과정의 문제점 및 개선방안)

  • Dong-Il Han;Jae-Yong Jang;Geun Lee;Dae-Geon Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.1179-1190
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to identify, analyze and address problems in the current scuba diving rescue curriculum in Korea by using the Delphi method to collect expert opinions on the topic. This expert information can form a data-based foundation for the scuba diving rescue curriculum, allowing teaching to be conducted more professionally and systematically, and allowing participants to enjoy scuba diving with greater safety and confidence. In this study, eight experts, all involved in developing the scuba rescue curriculum, were selected, and the research was conducted with informed consent from all participants and in accordance with all related ethical rules. Improvement measures were identified for scuba rescue leaders, teaching programs and training facilities. The study revealed that to improve leadership, a system to verify the leader's ability should be developed and that, in general, the ability of scuba rescue leaders should be strengthened. To improve teaching programs, each scuba organization should produce updated program manuals, prepare evaluation standards, and develop programs that employ a wide variety of training equipment. Finally, in terms of facilities, improvements should be made by constructing artificial wave devices at training centers.

Development of Construction Manager's Competency Evaluation Index Using Sports Analysis Techniques - Focused on Notational Analysis - (스포츠 분석 기법을 활용한 건설관리자 역량 평가지표 개발 - 부호화 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jinsol;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyeon-soo;Cho, Jongwoo;Yoon, Inseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.34-45
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    • 2019
  • To drive construction project successful, a construction manager with good competency is needed. In order to select appropriate construction manager, there should be a standard and a method for appropriately evaluating the competency of construction manager. There have been many researches on the competency of construction managers, but there are two points to be supplemented. One is that construction manager's competency measurement was not concrete and objective, and the other is that construction project performance directly reflects individual manager's performance. The purpose of this study is to derive a construction manager competency evaluation index by using the Notational Analysis technique that is used when deriving an indicator that measures the athlete's competency in sports. This analysis was drawn with Delphi method. Finally, the 'measurable behaviors'were derived that can evaluate the competency of construction managers. Through this, it is possible to express each manager's expertise, leadership, and personal characteristics in numerical expression. This will help decision makers when selecting construction managers. It is anticipated that decision makers will be able to make the decision to select the necessary construction managers easier because it can evaluate the construction managers through a scientific approach based on the record by supplementing the existing method which only relied on intuition.

Determination of priorities for management to reduce collapse accident of open excavation and road sink in urban areas (도심지 개착식 굴착공사 붕괴사고 및 도로함몰 저감을 위한 우선 관리 요소 결정)

  • Seong, Joo-Hyun;Jung, Min-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.489-501
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    • 2017
  • The collapse accidents during a open ground excavation in urban areas not only lead to human injuries and material damages in the construction site, but also lead to road sinks and damages to the adjacent facilities due to settlement of ground around the construction site. Therefore, during a open ground excavation in the urban areas, it is necessary to thoroughly prepare for prevention of collapse accidents, and consider whole construction stage such as planning, design and construction. In this study, the priorities to be managed mainly were obtained in order to prevent collapse accidents during a open ground excavation. After analyzing results from past accidents cases for open ground excavations, priorities were evaluated regarding collapse-inducing elements using the Delphi technique which is a decision-making method by consensus among experts. As a result, insufficient groundwater treatment, bad geotechnical investigation and instability on construction, etc. were obtained as priorities for prevention of collapse accidents.

Research on "Social Welfare and Safety" (tentative) Curriculum Development ('사회복지와 안전(가칭)' 교과과정 개발 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.646-655
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    • 2017
  • This research aims to propose the necessity of conducting safety education to undergraduates majoring in social welfare studies and suggest a curriculum developing plan founded on social concern over safety along with its importance in the middle of changing welfare environment. I surveyed 12 experts with Delphi method conducted descriptive statistical analysis, and then verified reliability of the irresponses and validity of contents. As a result of the research, the curriculum was named as "Social Welfare and Safety" and proposed to be operated as "a regular course (3credits/3hours․2credits/ 2hours)". In terms of objectives and goals of the curriculum, 9 themes were proposed including "Establishment of safety awareness and necessity of safety management" and "Studying safety management methods depending on different types of facilities". For the curriculum contents, 20 themes were proposed including "Safety management by social workers" and "Countermeasures for safety accidents in social welfare facilities". In order for the new curriculum to be successfully conducted, follow-up studies should be conducted on details regarding operation of the curriculum such as curriculum operation manuals, curriculum guidelines, etc.

The Evaluation Indexes' Selection of the Degree of Danger from Big and Old Trees (노거수 위험도 평가지표 선정 연구)

  • Xia, Tian-Tian;Kang, Tai-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 2017
  • Strengthening the protection and management of very old trees is an important aspect of urban site preservation, urban design and construction. Rating various danger factors to evaluate the degree of danger posed can help to create the correct protective countermeasures. In order to develop the danger evaluation index, this study performed four round surveys by using the Delphi method and collected opinions from experts in related fields. Necessary indexes were fully added in the first and second round while the indexes falling beyond the guidelines were deleted. From the final analysis results, five areas derived a total of forty-one indicators to create a degree of danger index from vigour status, growth and development status, diseases and insect pests, soil status, and management status. The degree of danger evaluation index can provide basic data for the protection of very old trees.

A method of SW development cost estimation for SBA's cost-effectiveness analysis (SBA 효과도 분석을 위한 소프트웨어 개발 비용 산정기법 연구)

  • Choi, Dal-Nim;Kim, Hyung-Jong
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.337-339
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    • 2011
  • M&S 기반의 가상환경 설계운영은 자원절약 및 위험성 감소 등 다양한 측면에서 효율성을 지니고 있다. 국방은 현실세계에서 실시하기 어려운 군사작전 시뮬레이션 운영을 위해 국방 M&S 개념을 도입하고, 이를 기반으로 무기체계의 소요도출부터 전력화 단계까지 프로세스 전반에 걸쳐 가상 환경에서의 설계 운영 및 검증을 수행하는 SBA 를 도입하였다. 그러나 모델링 및 시뮬레이션 과정에서 발생되는 고비용, 위험성 등의 문제점은 SBA 도입 효율성에 대한 논란의 요인이 된다. 따라서 SBA 도입 효과를 입증할 수 있는 지표 제시가 요구되며, 이 연구에서는 입증 지표로서 비용, 시간, 품질 및 위험도의 4 가지 요소를 분석한다. 또한 소프트웨어 개발비용 산정의 어려움 및 SBA의 고비용 가능성을 이유로 SBA 에 대한 개발비용 산정의 필요성을 제기한다. SBA 개발비용 산정을 위해 기존에 제시된 소프트웨어 개발비용 산정 모델 적용을 제안하고, COCOMO 모델, Putnam 모델, FP모델, 전문가의 감정 및 델파이 기법 등 소프트웨어 개발비용 산정모델을 기반으로 SBA 개발비용 산정에 적합한 모델을 분석한다.

Deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses which the Engineer of FIDIC Red Book Shall Agree or Determine according to Sub-Clause 3.7 -based on FIDIC Conditions of Contract for Construction, Second Edition 2017- (FIDIC Red Book의 Engineer가 합의 또는 결정해야할 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 -FIDIC Red Book 2017년 개정판 기준으로-)

  • Jei, Jae Yong;Hong, Seong Yeoll;Seo, Sung Chul;Park, Hyung Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2023
  • The FIDIC Red Book is an international standard contract condition in which the Employer designs and the Contractor performs the construction. The Engineer of FIDIC Red Book shall agree or determine any matter or Claim in accordance with Sub-Clause 3.7 neutrally, not as an agent of the Employer. This study aimed to derive Key Risk Sub-Clauses out of 49 Sub-Clauses that the Engineer of FIDIC Red Book recently revised in 18 years shall agree or determine according to Sub-Clause 3.7 using the Delphi method. A panel of 35 experts with more than 10 years of experience and expertise in international construction contracts was formed, and through total three Delphi surveys, errors and biases were prevented in the judgment process to improve reliability. As for the research method, 49 Sub-Clauses that engineers shall agree on or determine according to Sub-Clause 3.7 of the FIDIC Red Book were investigated through the analysis of contract conditions. In order to evaluate the probability and impact of contractual risk for each 49 Sub-Clause, the Delphi survey conducted repeatedly a closed-type survey three times on a Likert 10-point scale. The results of the first Delphi survey were delivered during the second survey, and the results of the second survey were delivered to the third survey, which was re-evaluated in the direction of increasing the consensus of experts' opinions. The reliability of the Delphi 3rd survey results was verified with the COV value of the coefficient of variation. The PI Risk Matrix was applied to the average value of risk probability and impact of each of the 49 Sub-Clauses and finally, 9 Key Risk Sub-Clauses that fell within the extreme risk range were derived.

ETRI Vision 2020 Future Strategies Methodology (ETRI 비전 2020 미래전략 고찰)

  • Ryu, Dong-Hyeon;Seo, Gyo-Ung;Ha, Won-Gyu;Hwang, Seong-Hyeon
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.156-170
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    • 2008
  • 21세기 지식경제사회의 우위를 선점하기 위해 세계 선진국에서는 미래전략 연구에 대한 연구를 활발히 추진하고 있다. 반면에 우리나라의 경우 미래전략 연구에 소홀한 실정으로, 지난 2007년 한국전자통신연구원(ETRI)에서는 IT 기반 융합기술 시대를 대비함과 동시에 신성장 동력 발굴을 위한 비전연구를 진행하였다. 2012년과 2020년을 각 각 중기와 장기목표로 구분하고, '즐겁고, 편리하고, 안전한 인간중심 IT 비전'을 topdown 방식으로 설정하였다. 설정된 비전 달성을 위해 비전위원회를 구성하여 bottom-up 방식으로 메가 트렌드 분석, 델파이, 시나리오 기법, TRM 설계를 통하여 미래 전략을 수립하였다. 본 고는 국외에서 활발히 진행되고 있는 미래예측 및 기술예측 등 미래전략 연구 방법론과 사례에 대해 연구결과를 중심으로 정리하였다. 그리고, 이러한 미래전략 방법론을 ETRI 비전수립 과정과 접목한 사례 일부 결과를 고찰하였다. 본 고를 통해 아직 초보단계에 있는 국내 비전연구, 미래예측 및 전략수립에 대한 방향을 제시한다.