• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기본체계모델

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Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

An Analysis of Inscription Trends of UNESCO World Heritage Cultural Landscapes (유네스코 세계유산 문화경관 등재 경향 분석)

  • Lee, Jaei;Sung, Jong-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.18-31
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    • 2024
  • This study examines the inscription trends and characteristics of 121 cultural landscapes inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List to gain a comprehensive understanding of their inherent values and attributes. By employing a dual methodology involving descriptive statistical analysis and in-depth case studies, this research investigates the geographical distribution, temporal inscription patterns, selection criteria, and typologies of these landscapes. The data for this study were collected from official documents and databases available on the UNESCO World Heritage Center website, ensuring the reliability and authenticity of the information. The analysis reveals that cultural landscapes are predominantly concentrated in Europe and Asia, with a steady increase in inscriptions since 1992. These landscapes are primarily recognized for their uniqueness in reflecting human-nature interactions, as well as the importance of traditional culture and land-use practices, resulting in their inscription mainly under criteria (iv), (iii), (v), and (ii). Furthermore, cultural landscapes can be broadly categorized into three types: designed landscapes, organically evolved landscapes, and associative landscapes. Among these, organically evolved landscapes, formed through long-term interactions between human activities such as agriculture and industry and the natural environment, constitute a significant proportion. These findings suggest that UNESCO World Heritage cultural landscapes possess a complex value system encompassing nature and culture, tangible and intangible elements, and material and non-material aspects. This necessitates a fundamental shift in the perception and preservation approaches to cultural heritage, requiring an integrated approach that emphasizes the overall context rather than individual elements and focuses on the dynamic process of landscape evolution itself. Moreover, cultural landscapes have the potential to contribute to sustainable development models by fostering regional identity, strengthening community resilience, and promoting sustainable economic growth. Therefore, the preservation and management of cultural landscapes require a perspective that holistically views the dynamic evolution process of the landscape and a governance system based on the active participation of local communities and stakeholders. This study contributes to enhancing the in-depth understanding of the characteristics and values of cultural landscapes and provides a foundation for the selection and management of future cultural landscape heritage sites.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Finite element analysis of peri-implant bone stress influenced by cervical module configuration of endosseous implant (임플란트 경부형상이 주위골 응력에 미치는 영향에 관한 유한요소법적 분석)

  • Chung, Jae-Min;Jo, Kwang-Heon;Lee, Cheong-Hee;Yu, Won-Jae;Lee, Kyu-Bok
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.394-405
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    • 2009
  • Statement of problem: Crestal bone loss, a common problem associated with dental implant, has been attributed to excessive bone stresses. Design of implant's transgingival (TG) part may affect the crestal bone stresses. Purpose: To investigate if concavely designed geometry at a dental implant's TG part reduces peri-implant bone stresses. Material and methods: A total of five differently configured TG parts were compared. Base model was the ITI one piece implant (Straumann, Waldenburg, Switzerland) characterized by straight TG part. Other 4 experimental models, i.e. Model-1 to Model-4, were designed to have concave TG part. Finite element analyses were carried out using an axisymmetric assumption. A vertical load of 50 N or an oblique load of 50 N acting at $30^{\circ}$ with the implant's long axis was applied. For a systematic stress comparison, a total of 19 reference points were defined on nodal points around the implant. The peak crestal bone stress acting at the intersection of implant and crestal bone was estimated using regression analysis from the stress results obtained at 5 reference points defined along the mid plane of the crestal bone. Results: Base Model with straight configuration at the transgingival part created highest stresses on the crestal bone. Stress level was reduced when concavity was imposed. The greater the concavity and the closer the concavity to the crestal bone level, the less the crestal stresses. Conclusion: The transgingival part of dental implant affect the crestal bone stress. And that concavely designed one may be used to reduce bone stress.

Analysis on Factors Influencing Welfare Spending of Local Authority : Implementing the Detailed Data Extracted from the Social Security Information System (지방자치단체 자체 복지사업 지출 영향요인 분석 : 사회보장정보시스템을 통한 접근)

  • Kim, Kyoung-June;Ham, Young-Jin;Lee, Ki-Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2013
  • Researchers in welfare services of local government in Korea have rather been on isolated issues as disables, childcare, aging phenomenon, etc. (Kang, 2004; Jung et al., 2009). Lately, local officials, yet, realize that they need more comprehensive welfare services for all residents, not just for above-mentioned focused groups. Still cases dealt with focused group approach have been a main research stream due to various reason(Jung et al., 2009; Lee, 2009; Jang, 2011). Social Security Information System is an information system that comprehensively manages 292 welfare benefits provided by 17 ministries and 40 thousand welfare services provided by 230 local authorities in Korea. The purpose of the system is to improve efficiency of social welfare delivery process. The study of local government expenditure has been on the rise over the last few decades after the restarting the local autonomy, but these studies have limitations on data collection. Measurement of a local government's welfare efforts(spending) has been primarily on expenditures or budget for an individual, set aside for welfare. This practice of using monetary value for an individual as a "proxy value" for welfare effort(spending) is based on the assumption that expenditure is directly linked to welfare efforts(Lee et al., 2007). This expenditure/budget approach commonly uses total welfare amount or percentage figure as dependent variables (Wildavsky, 1985; Lee et al., 2007; Kang, 2000). However, current practice of using actual amount being used or percentage figure as a dependent variable may have some limitation; since budget or expenditure is greatly influenced by the total budget of a local government, relying on such monetary value may create inflate or deflate the true "welfare effort" (Jang, 2012). In addition, government budget usually contain a large amount of administrative cost, i.e., salary, for local officials, which is highly unrelated to the actual welfare expenditure (Jang, 2011). This paper used local government welfare service data from the detailed data sets linked to the Social Security Information System. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors that affect social welfare spending of 230 local authorities in 2012. The paper applied multiple regression based model to analyze the pooled financial data from the system. Based on the regression analysis, the following factors affecting self-funded welfare spending were identified. In our research model, we use the welfare budget/total budget(%) of a local government as a true measurement for a local government's welfare effort(spending). Doing so, we exclude central government subsidies or support being used for local welfare service. It is because central government welfare support does not truly reflect the welfare efforts(spending) of a local. The dependent variable of this paper is the volume of the welfare spending and the independent variables of the model are comprised of three categories, in terms of socio-demographic perspectives, the local economy and the financial capacity of local government. This paper categorized local authorities into 3 groups, districts, and cities and suburb areas. The model used a dummy variable as the control variable (local political factor). This paper demonstrated that the volume of the welfare spending for the welfare services is commonly influenced by the ratio of welfare budget to total local budget, the population of infants, self-reliance ratio and the level of unemployment factor. Interestingly, the influential factors are different by the size of local government. Analysis of determinants of local government self-welfare spending, we found a significant effect of local Gov. Finance characteristic in degree of the local government's financial independence, financial independence rate, rate of social welfare budget, and regional economic in opening-to-application ratio, and sociology of population in rate of infants. The result means that local authorities should have differentiated welfare strategies according to their conditions and circumstances. There is a meaning that this paper has successfully proven the significant factors influencing welfare spending of local government in Korea.

Effects of Chicory Inulin and Oligosaccharides on Lipid Metabolism in Rats Fed a High-Cholesterol Diet (고콜레스테롤 식이 섭취 흰쥐에서 치커리 이눌린과 올리고당이 지질대사에 미치는 영향)

  • 성혜영;정현진;최영선;조성희;윤종원
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.305-310
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    • 2004
  • The present study was aimed at investigating effects of chicory inulin and three kinds of oligosaccharides on lipid metabolism in rats fed a high-cholesterol diet. Nine Sprague-Dawley male rats weighing, about 190g were given one of five experimental diets, which were basal cholesterol diet (Control) isomaltooligosaccharide diet (IMO), Iructooligosaccharide diet (FO), chicory inulooligosaccharide diet (CIO) and chicory inulin diet (CI) for 5 weeks. In the oligosaccharide and inulin diets, 6% was added at the expense of sucrose. Rats were pair-fed to the intake of FO group which consumed the least amount, and their feces were collected during the last 4 days. Body weight gain was lower in Fo and CI groups compared with the Control group. Plasma glucose levels of FO and CIO groups were lower and plasma triglyceride concentrations of FO, CIO, and CI groups were lower than those of IMO group. Plasma cholesterol concentration did not differ among groups. Relative liver weight was lower in CIO group. Hepatic triglyceride and cholesterol did not differ among. groups. Fecal excretion of neutral steroid and bile acid were not different among groups, but fecal triglyceride excretion was significantly increased in FO and CI groups compared with the Control group. In conclusion, supplementation of oligosaccharides and chicory inulin at 6% of diets showed no significant hypolipidemic effect in rats fed a high cholesterol diet.

Survey on Radiotherpv Protocols for the Rectal Cancers Among the Korean Radiation Oncologists in 2002 for the Development of the Patterns of Care Study of Radiation Therapy (방사선치료 Patterns of Care Study 개발을 위한 2002년 한국 방사선종양학과 전문의들의 직장암 방사선치료 원칙 조사연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Hoon;Kim, Dae-Yong;Kim, Young-Ho;Kim, Woo-Chul;Kim, Chul-Yong;Sung, Jin-Shil;Son, Seung-Chang;Shin, Hyun-Su;An, Young-Chan;Oh, Do-Hum;Oh, One-Yong;Yu, Mi-Ryung;Yu, Hung-Jun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.44-65
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : To conduct nationwide surgery on the principles In radiotherapy for rectal center, and develop the framework of a database of Korean Patterns of Care Study. Materials and Methods : A consensus committee was established to develop a tool for measuring the Patterns in radiotherapy Protocols for rectal cancer. The Panel was composed of radiation oncologists from 18 hospitals in Seoul Wetropolltan area. The committee developed a survey format to analyze radiation oncologist's treatment principles for rectal cancer. The survey items developed for measuring the treatment principles were composed of 1) 8 eliglblllty criteria, 2) 20 Items for staging work-ups and prognostic factors, 3) 7 Items for principles of combined surgery and chemotherapy, 4) 9 patient set-ups, 5) 19 determining radiation fields, 6) S radiotherapy treatment pians, 7) 4 physicalilaboratory examination to monitor a patient's condition during treatment, and 8) 10 follow-up evaluations. These items were sent to radiation oncoioglsts In charge of gastrolntestlnal malignancies in all hospitals (48 hospitals) In Korea to which 30 replies were received (63$\%$). Results : Most of the surrey Items were replied to without no major between the repliers, but with the fellowing items only 50$\%$ of repliers were in agreement : 1) Indications of preoperative radiation, 2) use of endorectal ultrasound, CT scan, and bone scan for staging work-ups, 3) principles of combining chemotherapy with radiotherapy, 4) use of contrast material for small bowel delineation during simulation, 5) determination of field margins, and 6) use of CEA and colonoscopy for follow-up evaluations. Conclusions : The Items where considerable disaggrement was shown among the radiation oncologists seemed to make no serious difference In the treatment outcome, but a practical and reasonable consensus should be reached by the committee, with logical processes of agreement. These Items can be used for a basic database for the Patterns of Care Study, which will survey the practical radiotherapy Patterns for rectal cancer in Korea.

A Study on the Cost Analysis of Service Export - K SME Case of MICE-related Industry - (서비스 수출원가 분석 - MICE 산업 관련 중소기업 사례연구 -)

  • Park, Moon-Suh
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.485-516
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    • 2011
  • Republic of Korea is small nation that is comprised of 0.7% of the world population and occupying just 0.07% of the world territory. Despite this, Republic of Korea once again proved herself to be as the world's major economic powerhouse by becoming the world's 7th largest exporter in 2010. However, the reality is that Republic of Korea is still significantly concerned about the volatile economic nature and anxiety that is spread across the globe since the global depression that began at the end of 2008 and the financial crisis that has been threatening the Euro-Zone recently. This has resulted in the nation reaching the limitation in significant economic growth and limited creation of jobs within the nation and due to such circumstances, the nation is becoming more aware of the fact that she needs to pay more attention on the service sector and service exports if she was to see a more positive economic outlook in the upcoming future. This research is aimed to analyse the cost that is associated with the service export sector, by examining a number of enterprises in relation to the MICE(Meeting Incentives Convention Exhibition) industry which certainly has both direct and indirect influences on the service exports of the nation Further, the prime goal of the research is to encourage the SMEs of Korea, who have substandard experience associated to foreign exports, to intensify and increase service exports and also the goal extends to the degree to suggest appropriate assistance measures to aid these enterprises to achieve such goals. This research is fundamentally designed and based on the literature research associated with the MICE industry and also, this research is premeditated through the analysis of the case of exports to Vietnam. As the result of research, it has been found out that SMEs in the MICE industry and those of in service export sector are reluctant or even feel insecure to attempt any kind of export of their services mainly due to; the lack of foreign market information and also the lack of experience associated with service exports. Furthermore, it has also been revealed that the difficulty to estimate the validity and profitability of service the export is a significant factor withholding those enterprises from attempting any service export to the foreign markets. Henceforth, in order to aid and stimulate service export to the foreign markets by these SMEs (including those in association with the MICE industry), it is imperative to prepare an one-stop service export assistance program which would provide the information associated with marketing, law and legislation, taxation system and financial area in regard to the global markets.

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Risk Ranking Analysis for the City-Gas Pipelines in the Underground Laying Facilities (지하매설물 중 도시가스 지하배관에 대한 위험성 서열화 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 2004
  • In this article, we are to suggest the hazard-assessing method for the underground pipelines, and find out the pipeline-maintenance schemes of high efficiency in cost. Three kinds of methods are applied in order to refer to the approaching methods of listing the hazards for the underground pipelines: the first is RBI(Risk Based Inspection), which firstly assess the effect of the neighboring population, the dimension, thickness of pipe, and working time. It enables us to estimate quantitatively the risk exposure. The second is the scoring system which is based on the environmental factors of the buried pipelines. Last we quantify the frequency of the releases using the present THOMAS' theory. In this work, as a result of assessing the hazard of it using SPC scheme, the hazard score related to how the gas pipelines erodes indicate the numbers from 30 to 70, which means that the assessing criteria define well the relative hazards of actual pipelines. Therefore. even if one pipeline region is relatively low score, it can have the high frequency of leakage due to its longer length. The acceptable limit of the release frequency of pipeline shows 2.50E-2 to 1.00E-l/yr, from which we must take the appropriate actions to have the consequence to be less than the acceptable region. The prediction of total frequency using regression analysis shows the limit operating time of pipeline is the range of 11 to 13 years, which is well consistent with that of the actual pipeline. Concludingly, the hazard-listing scheme suggested in this research will be very effectively applied to maintaining the underground pipelines.