• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.99-113
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• 2023

In a customer-based industry, customer retention is the competitiveness of a company, and improving customer retention improves the competitiveness of the company. Therefore, accurate prediction and management of potential dormant customers is paramount to increasing the competitiveness of the enterprise. In particular, there are numerous competitors in the domestic card industry, and the government is introducing an automatic closing system for dormant card management. As a result of these social changes, the card industry must focus on better predicting and managing potential dormant cards, and better predicting dormant customers is emerging as an important challenge. In this study, the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) methodology was used to predict potential dormant customers in the card industry, and in particular, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) was used to efficiently learn data for a long time. In addition, to redefine the variables needed to predict dormant customers in the card industry, Unified Theory of Technology (UTAUT), an integrated technology acceptance theory, was applied to redefine and group the variables used in the model. As a result, stable model accuracy and F-1 score were obtained, and Hit-Ratio proved that models using LSTM can produce stable results compared to other algorithms. It was also found that there was no moderating effect of demographic information that could occur in UTAUT, which was pointed out in previous studies. Therefore, among variable selection models using UTAUT, dormant customer prediction models using LSTM are proven to have non-biased stable results. This study revealed that there may be academic contributions to the prediction of dormant customers using LSTM algorithms that can learn well from previously untried time series data. In addition, it is a good example to show that it is possible to respond to customers who are preemptively dormant in terms of customer management because it is predicted at a time difference with the actual dormant capture, and it is expected to contribute greatly to the industry.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.139-155
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• 2003

This paper presents the new methodology of analyzing and classifying patterns of customers in mobile telecommunication market to enhance the performance of predicting the credit information based on the decision tree and neural network. With the application of variance selection process from decision tree, the systemic process of defining input vector's value and the rule generation were developed. In point of customer management, this research analyzes current customers and produces the patterns of them so that the company can maintain good customer relationship and makes special management on the customer who has huh potential of getting out of contract in advance. The real implementation of proposed method shows that the predicted accuracy is higher than existing methods such as decision tree(CART, C4.5), regression, neural network and combined model(CART and NN).

• Information Systems Review
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.99-132
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• 2007

As customer management rises by important issue in electronic commerce, virtue study about CRM have proceeded much. However, because existent researches were positive researches of most statistical base, There are some limitation that does not show dynamic change with CRM flow by flowing of time, and can not forecast propriety and future result about CRM strategy. Therefore, in order to overcome existent limitation on these CRM study, this study designed dynamic model which draws factors that compose CRM strategy of on-line shopping mall, and do based on technique in system dynamics so that can analyze dynamic change between these factors. Concretely, atomized customer focuses in the on-line shopping mall and does based on Permission marketing theory, and applied CRM of different level to atomized customers and know change of customer satisfaction measurement and discomfort degree accordingly. According to the result of Simulation practice, situation that achieve CRM strategy of different level by atomize customer more increase the customer satisfaction than situation that is not so. Dynamic pattern that presented in this study is expected that can verify validity about CRM achievement strategy of different level at each CRM point of contact & how Internet enterprise including on-line shopping mall is establishing CRM strategy reasonably.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.85-91
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• 2018

Most banks use only demographic information such as gender, age, occupation and address to segment customers, but they do not reflect financial behavior patterns of customers. In this study, we aim to solve the problems by using various big data in a bank and to develop customer segmentation method which can be widely used in many banks in the future. In this paper, we propose an approach of segmenting clustering blocks with bottom-up method. This method has an advantage that it can accurately reflect various financial needs of customers based on various transaction patterns, channel contact patterns, and existing demographic information. Based on this, we will develop various marketing models such as product recommendation, financial need rating calculation, and customer churn-out prediction based on this, and we will adapt this models for the marketing strategy of NH Bank.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.159-176
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• 2021

Obviating user churn is a prominent strategy to capitalize on online games, eluding the initial investments required for the development of another. Extant literature has examined factors that may induce user churn, mainly from perspectives of motives to play and game as a virtual society. However, such works largely dismiss the service aspects of online games. Dissatisfaction of user needs constitutes a crucial aspect for user churn, especially with online services where users expect a continuous improvement in service quality via software updates. Hence, we examine the relationship between a game's quality management and its user base. With text mining and survival analysis, we identify complaint factors that act as key predictors of user churn. Additionally, we find that enjoyment-related factors are greater threats to user base than usability-related ones. Furthermore, subsequent quasi-experiment shows that improvements in the complaint factors (i.e., via game patches) curb churn and foster user retention. Our results shed light on the responsive role of developers in retaining the user base of online games. Moreover, we provide practical insights for game operators, i.e., to identify and prioritize more perilous complaint factors in planning successive game patches.

• Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.520-533
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• 2007

The CRM(Customer Relationship Management) is the business strategy model for higher profits and competitive power of the enterprise in a new business environment. The large-scale customer response service technique uses internet, e-mail, SMS (Short Message Service), Telephony service, DM(Direct Mail) by customer channel point. Recently, business model diversify for new contract and retaining existing customer to the effort for a profitable model of business. This paper is based on Avaya PDS(Predictive Dialing System) model for CRM bond center. If the number of "available" agents are less than the number of inbound channels, then there may be real-time response problems in PDS system implemented. The Organization cannot afford to have many agents in available mode because of the high cost of manpower. This paper provides two contributions to the study. First, we present Call Object Management Mechanism of Customer Channel integration for reduce outbound consulting and reduce CallBack data in the PDS. Second, we design and implement the proposed system. Our simulation results show analysis of old model and proposed model. The proposed model can be efficiently used in Large-scale CRM.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.221-241
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• 2018

Deep learning is getting attention recently. The deep learning technique which had been applied in competitions of the International Conference on Image Recognition Technology(ILSVR) and AlphaGo is Convolution Neural Network(CNN). CNN is characterized in that the input image is divided into small sections to recognize the partial features and combine them to recognize as a whole. Deep learning technologies are expected to bring a lot of changes in our lives, but until now, its applications have been limited to image recognition and natural language processing. The use of deep learning techniques for business problems is still an early research stage. If their performance is proved, they can be applied to traditional business problems such as future marketing response prediction, fraud transaction detection, bankruptcy prediction, and so on. So, it is a very meaningful experiment to diagnose the possibility of solving business problems using deep learning technologies based on the case of online shopping companies which have big data, are relatively easy to identify customer behavior and has high utilization values. Especially, in online shopping companies, the competition environment is rapidly changing and becoming more intense. Therefore, analysis of customer behavior for maximizing profit is becoming more and more important for online shopping companies. In this study, we propose 'CNN model of Heterogeneous Information Integration' using CNN as a way to improve the predictive power of customer behavior in online shopping enterprises. In order to propose a model that optimizes the performance, which is a model that learns from the convolution neural network of the multi-layer perceptron structure by combining structured and unstructured information, this model uses 'heterogeneous information integration', 'unstructured information vector conversion', 'multi-layer perceptron design', and evaluate the performance of each architecture, and confirm the proposed model based on the results. In addition, the target variables for predicting customer behavior are defined as six binary classification problems: re-purchaser, churn, frequent shopper, frequent refund shopper, high amount shopper, high discount shopper. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model, we conducted experiments using actual data of domestic specific online shopping company. This experiment uses actual transactions, customers, and VOC data of specific online shopping company in Korea. Data extraction criteria are defined for 47,947 customers who registered at least one VOC in January 2011 (1 month). The customer profiles of these customers, as well as a total of 19 months of trading data from September 2010 to March 2012, and VOCs posted for a month are used. The experiment of this study is divided into two stages. In the first step, we evaluate three architectures that affect the performance of the proposed model and select optimal parameters. We evaluate the performance with the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model, which combines both structured and unstructured information, is superior compared to NBC(Naïve Bayes classification), SVM(Support vector machine), and ANN(Artificial neural network). Therefore, it is significant that the use of unstructured information contributes to predict customer behavior, and that CNN can be applied to solve business problems as well as image recognition and natural language processing problems. It can be confirmed through experiments that CNN is more effective in understanding and interpreting the meaning of context in text VOC data. And it is significant that the empirical research based on the actual data of the e-commerce company can extract very meaningful information from the VOC data written in the text format directly by the customer in the prediction of the customer behavior. Finally, through various experiments, it is possible to say that the proposed model provides useful information for the future research related to the parameter selection and its performance.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.111-118
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• 2007

What is CRM(Customer Relationship Management) means that planning, executing, and re-accessing the marketing strategy based on the customer character by analyzing the material related to customers. That is CRM is a strategy of customer service on the base of data. In the case of the telecommunications and a newspaper, there are restricted application of CRM, because they are provided services by paying a given amount of money within a given period of time. This paper develops CRM model(chum prediction model) that can apply to a newspaper. For model-building, real data were used which were collected from one of the major a newspaper company in Korea. Also, this paper verifies the efficient result.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.199-210
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• 2005

Customer segmentation prediction has attracted a lot of research interests in previous literature, and recent studies have shown that artificial neural networks (ANN) method achieved better performance than traditional statistical ones. However, ANN approaches have suffered from difficulties with generalization, producing models that can overfit the data. This paper employs a relatively new machine learning technique, support vector machines (SVM), to the customer segmentation prediction problem in an attempt to provide a model with better explanatory power. To evaluate the prediction accuracy of SVM, we compare its performance with logistic regression analysis and ANN. The experiment results with real data of insurance company show that SVM superiors to them.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.125-140
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• 2013

We call a data set in which the number of records belonging to a certain class far outnumbers the number of records belonging to the other class, 'imbalanced data set'. Most of the classification techniques perform poorly on imbalanced data sets. When we evaluate the performance of a certain classification technique, we need to measure not only 'accuracy' but also 'sensitivity' and 'specificity'. In a customer churn prediction problem, 'retention' records account for the majority class, and 'churn' records account for the minority class. Sensitivity measures the proportion of actual retentions which are correctly identified as such. Specificity measures the proportion of churns which are correctly identified as such. The poor performance of the classification techniques on imbalanced data sets is due to the low value of specificity. Many previous researches on imbalanced data sets employed 'oversampling' technique where members of the minority class are sampled more than those of the majority class in order to make a relatively balanced data set. When a classification model is constructed using this oversampled balanced data set, specificity can be improved but sensitivity will be decreased. In this research, we developed a hybrid model of support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN) and decision tree, that improves specificity while maintaining sensitivity. We named this hybrid model 'hybrid SVM model.' The process of construction and prediction of our hybrid SVM model is as follows. By oversampling from the original imbalanced data set, a balanced data set is prepared. SVM_I model and ANN_I model are constructed using the imbalanced data set, and SVM_B model is constructed using the balanced data set. SVM_I model is superior in sensitivity and SVM_B model is superior in specificity. For a record on which both SVM_I model and SVM_B model make the same prediction, that prediction becomes the final solution. If they make different prediction, the final solution is determined by the discrimination rules obtained by ANN and decision tree. For a record on which SVM_I model and SVM_B model make different predictions, a decision tree model is constructed using ANN_I output value as input and actual retention or churn as target. We obtained the following two discrimination rules: 'IF ANN_I output value <0.285, THEN Final Solution = Retention' and 'IF ANN_I output value ${\geq}0.285$, THEN Final Solution = Churn.' The threshold 0.285 is the value optimized for the data used in this research. The result we present in this research is the structure or framework of our hybrid SVM model, not a specific threshold value such as 0.285. Therefore, the threshold value in the above discrimination rules can be changed to any value depending on the data. In order to evaluate the performance of our hybrid SVM model, we used the 'churn data set' in UCI Machine Learning Repository, that consists of 85% retention customers and 15% churn customers. Accuracy of the hybrid SVM model is 91.08% that is better than that of SVM_I model or SVM_B model. The points worth noticing here are its sensitivity, 95.02%, and specificity, 69.24%. The sensitivity of SVM_I model is 94.65%, and the specificity of SVM_B model is 67.00%. Therefore the hybrid SVM model developed in this research improves the specificity of SVM_B model while maintaining the sensitivity of SVM_I model.