• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.382-395
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• 2013

The providers of meteorological information want to know the level of satisfaction of forecast users with their services. To provide better service, meteorological communities of each nation are administering a survey on satisfaction of forecast users. However, most researchers provided these users with simple questionnaires and the respondents had to choose one answer among different satisfaction levels. So, the results of this kind of survey have low explanation power and are difficult to use in developing strategy of forecast service. In this study, instead of cost-loss concept, we applied satisfaction-dissatisfaction concept to the $2{\times}2$ contingency table, which is a useful tool to evaluate value of forecast, and estimated satisfaction value of 24h precipitation forecasts in Shanghai, China and Seoul, Korea. Moreover, not only the individual satisfaction value of forecast but the user group's satisfaction value was evaluated. As for the result, it is effective to enhance forecast accuracy to improve the satisfaction value of deterministic forecast user group, but in the case of probabilistic forecast, it is important to know the level of dissatisfaction of user group and distribution of probability threshold of forecast users. These results can help meteorological communities to search for a solution which can provide better satisfaction value to forecast users.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.185-194
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• 2007

The information of covariates are available to do fully efficient fractional imputation(FEFI). The new method, FEFI with logistic regression is proposed to construct complete contingency tables. Jackknife method is used to get a standard errors of log-odds ratio from the completed table by the new method. Simulation results, when covariates have more information about categorical variables, reveal that the new method provides more efficient estimates of log-odds ratio than either multiple imputation(MI) based on data augmentation or complete case analysis.

• 한국사회복지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.461-492
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• 2004

This study examined the effects of gender, parental support and treatment type on the treatment outcome of adolescent substance abusers. Outcome variable was the successful graduation (or drop) from an Intensive Adolescent Outpatient Program. Adolescents with their parents' support were treated in one of three treatment models (2-weeks Inpatient plus 6 week Intensive Croup-Oriented Outpatient, 8-weeks Intensive Croup-Oriented Outpatient, and 8-weeks Individual-Family Therapy) within a private hospital-affiliated treatment center by managed care practice allowing their own choice (non-random natural assignments). Several hypotheses were tested for main effects by the Log-Linear Analyses for a multi-dimensional contingency table with 440 adolescents (284 boys and 156 girls treated during 1992-l997) from middle-class families with private health insurances. The following results were found. Odds of graduating versus dropping out of the treatment program among : (1) girls were 1.7 times higher than those among boys; (2) adolescents with two-parent were 2.2 times higher than those among adolescents with one-parent ; (3) adolescents with Inpatient plus Outpatient was 1.7 times higher than that of those with Outpatient; (4) adolescents with Individual-Family Therapy was 2.3 times higher than that of those with Outpatient Model. There was no statistically significant outcome difference between the Individual-Family Therapy and the Inpatient plus Outpatient. Implications from the results were discussed. Suggestions were made to improve the treatment components in the areas of gender sensitivity, securing more parental support, alternatives for separation from peer group and integrating new peer groups, and flexibility for the unique needs of individual family. Also, some research questions for future studies were suggested.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.89-98
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• 2007

In this paper the economic value of weather forecasts is valuated for profit-oriented enterprise decision-making situations. Value is estimated in terms of monetary profits (or benefits) resulted from the forecast user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is represented by a profit/loss ratio model combined with a decision function and a value score (VS). The forecast user determines a business-related decision based on the probabilistic forecast, the user's subjective reliability of the forecasts, and the payoff structure specific to the user's business environment. The VS curve for a meteorological forecast is specified by a function of the various profit/loss ratios, providing the scaled economic value relative to the value of a perfect forecast. The proposed valuation method based on the profit/loss ratio model and the VS is adapted for hypothetical sets of forecasts and verified for site-specific probability of precipitation forecast of 12 hour and 24 hour-lead time, which is generated from Korea meteorological administration (KMA). The application results show that forecast information with shorter lead time can provide the decision-makers with great benefits and there are ranges of profit/loss ratios in which high subjective reliability of the given forecast is preferred.

• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.467-490
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• 2013

Correlation is a basic statistical concept which is necessary for understanding the relationship between two variables when they change values. In the middle school curriculum of Korea, only informal definition of correlation is taught with two-way data representations such as scatter plots and contingency tables. In this study, we investigated Korean high school students' understanding of correlation using a test consisting of 35 items about interpretation of scatter plot, contingency table, and text in realistic situation. 216 students from a high school in Seoul took the test for 20 minutes. From the results, we could observe the following: First, students did not have right criteria for determining the strength of correlation presented in scatter plots. Most of students could determine if there is correlation/no correlation and if the correlation is positive/negative by seeing the data presented in scatter plots. However, they did not judge by the closeness to the regression line but rather judged by the closeness between data points. Second, when statements about comparing the strength of correlation in the context of real life situation were given in text, the students had difficulty in understanding the distribution-related characteristic of the bi-variate data. Students had difficulty in figuring out the local distribution characteristic of data, which cannot be guessed merely based on the expression 'The correlation is strong' without statistical knowledge of correlation. Third, a large number of students could not judge the association between two variabels using conditional proportions when qualitative data are given in 2-by-2 tables. They made judgement by the absolute cell count and when the marginal sum of two categories are different for explanatory variable they thought the association could not be determined. From these results, we concluded that educational measures are required in order to remove such misconceptions and to improve understanding of correlation. Considering that the current mathematics curriculum does not cover the concept of correlation, we need to improve the curriculum as well.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.29-36
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• 1999

We propose a new method of asymptotic inference on the odds ratio (or cross-product ratio) in $2{\times}2$ contingency table. Saddlepoint approximations to the conditional tail probability we used in this procedure. We assess the accuracy of the suggested method by comparing with the exact one. To obtain the exact values, we need very complicated calculations containing the cumulative probabilities of non-central hypergeometric distribution. The suggested method in this paper is very accurate even for small or moderate sample sizes as well as simple and easy to use. Example with a real data is also considered.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.379-388
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• 1983

The subtidal benthic algal communities of Dolsan-island in the southern coast of Korea were surveyed by means of SCUBA diving. The vertical zonation is recognized into three groups; upper, middle and lower subtidal zones. The representative species in each group throughout the year are Ulva pertusa, Codium fragile, Chondria crassicaulis and Gigartina tenera in the upper, Myagropsis myagroides and Sargassum tortile in the middle, and Plocamium telfairiae, Callophyllis japonica and Symphyocladia linearis in the lower zone. According to the normal association analysis by $2{\times}2$ contingency table and chi-square calculation among 29 quadrats, the algal communities are divided into 9 groups which are dominated by Sargassum tortile, Myagropsis myagroides, Chondria crassicaulis, Codium fragile, Pterocladia tenuis, Gigartina tenera, Gracilaria textorii. The thallus length and standing crops of Myagropsis myagroides show the highest value in spring and the lowest in summer.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.39-57
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• 2001

Categorical data has sometimes misclassification errors. If this data will be analyzed, then estimated cell probabilities could be biased and the standard Pearson X2 tests may have inflated true type I error rates. On the other hand, if we regard wellclassified data with misclassified one, then we might spend lots of cost and time on adjustment of misclassification. It is a necessary and important step to ask whether categorical data is misclassified before analyzing data. In this paper, when data is misclassified at one of two variables for two-dimensional contingency table and marginal sums of a well-classified variable are fixed. We explore to partition marginal sums into each cells via the concepts of Bound and Collapse of Sebastiani and Ramoni (1997). The double sampling scheme (Tenenbein 1970) is used to obtain informations of misclassification. We propose test statistics in order to solve misclassification problems and examine behaviors of the statistics by simulation studies.

• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.197-208
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.