• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.55-93
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• 2012

In Korea, energy policies are actualized through various energy-related plans. Recently, however, as high-ranking plans, which are very vision-oriented, continually set higher sector-by-sector goals, subordinate action plans, which require consistency, encounter distortions in their establishment process. Also, each subordinate action plan reveals limitations in terms of securing flexibility of the plan in responding to uncertainties of the future. These problems pose potential risks such as causing huge social costs. In this regard, with an aim to provide empirical evidence for discussions on improving the procedure for developing and executing Korea's energy plans, this study mainly analyzes the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply-one of the most important subordinate action plans-in order to explain the problems of the Basic Plan in a logical manner, and potential problems that could occur in the process of sustaining consistency between the Basic Plan and its higher-ranking plans. Further, this paper estimates the scale of social costs caused by those problems assuming realistic conditions. According to the result, in the case of where maximum electric power is estimated to be 7% (15%) less than the actual amount in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, the annual generation cost will rise by 286 billion won and (1.2 trillion won) in 2020. Such social costs are found to occur even when establishing and executing the Basic plan according to the target goal set by its higher-ranking plan, the National Energy Master Plan. In addition, when another higher-ranking GHG reduction master plan requires the electricity sector to reduce emissions by additional 5% in the GHG emissions from the right mix in electricity generation with 'zero' cost of carbon emission, the annual generation cost will rise by approximately 915 billion won in 2020. On the other hand, the analysis finds that since economic feasibility of electric powers in Korea varies significantly depending on their type, Korea is expected to face very small potential social costs caused by uncertainties over the future price of carbon dioxide in the process of establishing the Basic Plan.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.35-55
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• 2013

Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.449-459
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• 2015

The conventional National Forest Inventory(NFI)-based forest carbon stock estimation method is suitable for national-scale estimation, but is not for regional-scale estimation due to the lack of NFI plots. In this study, for the purpose of regional-scale carbon stock estimation, we created grid-based forest carbon stock maps using spatial ancillary data and two types of up-scaling methods. Chungnam province was chosen to represent the study area and for which the $5^{th}$ NFI (2006~2009) data was collected. The first method (method 1) selects forest type map as ancillary data and uses regression model for forest carbon stock estimation, whereas the second method (method 2) uses satellite imagery and k-Nearest Neighbor(k-NN) algorithm. Additionally, in order to consider uncertainty effects, the final AGB carbon stock maps were generated by performing 200 iterative processes with Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, compared to the NFI-based estimation(21,136,911 tonC), the total carbon stock was over-estimated by method 1(22,948,151 tonC), but was under-estimated by method 2(19,750,315 tonC). In the paired T-test with 186 independent data, the average carbon stock estimation by the NFI-based method was statistically different from method2(p<0.01), but was not different from method1(p>0.01). In particular, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the smoothing effect of k-NN algorithm and mis-registration error between NFI plots and satellite image can lead to large uncertainty in carbon stock estimation. Although method 1 was found suitable for carbon stock estimation of forest stands that feature heterogeneous trees in Korea, satellite-based method is still in demand to provide periodic estimates of un-investigated, large forest area. In these respects, future work will focus on spatial and temporal extent of study area and robust carbon stock estimation with various satellite images and estimation methods.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.1246-1246
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• 2001

The quality of meat is highly variable in many properties. This variability originates from both animal production and meat processing. At the pre-slaughter stage, animal factors such as breed, sex, age contribute to this variability. Environmental factors include feeding, rearing, transport and conditions just before slaughter (Hildrum et al., 1995). Meat can be presented in a variety of forms, each offering different opportunities for adulteration and contamination. This has imposed great pressure on the food manufacturing industry to guarantee the safety of meat. Tissue and muscle speciation of flesh foods, as well as speciation of animal derived by-products fed to all classes of domestic animals, are now perhaps the most important uncertainty which the food industry must resolve to allay consumer concern. Recently, there is a demand for rapid and low cost methods of direct quality measurements in both food and food ingredients (including high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), thin layer chromatography (TLC), enzymatic and inmunological tests (e.g. ELISA test) and physical tests) to establish their authenticity and hence guarantee the quality of products manufactured for consumers (Holland et al., 1998). The use of Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) for the rapid, precise and non-destructive analysis of a wide range of organic materials has been comprehensively documented (Osborne et at., 1993). Most of the established methods have involved the development of NIRS calibrations for the quantitative prediction of composition in meat (Ben-Gera and Norris, 1968; Lanza, 1983; Clark and Short, 1994). This was a rational strategy to pursue during the initial stages of its application, given the type of equipment available, the state of development of the emerging discipline of chemometrics and the overwhelming commercial interest in solving such problems (Downey, 1994). One of the advantages of NIRS technology is not only to assess chemical structures through the analysis of the molecular bonds in the near infrared spectrum, but also to build an optical model characteristic of the sample which behaves like the “finger print” of the sample. This opens the possibility of using spectra to determine complex attributes of organic structures, which are related to molecular chromophores, organoleptic scores and sensory characteristics (Hildrum et al., 1994, 1995; Park et al., 1998). In addition, the application of statistical packages like principal component or discriminant analysis provides the possibility to understand the optical properties of the sample and make a classification without the chemical information. The objectives of this present work were: (1) to examine two methods of sample presentation to the instrument (intact and minced) and (2) to explore the use of principal component analysis (PCA) and Soft Independent Modelling of class Analogy (SIMCA) to classify muscles by quality attributes. Seventy-eight (n: 78) beef muscles (m. longissimus dorsi) from Hereford breed of cattle were used. The samples were scanned in a NIRS monochromator instrument (NIR Systems 6500, Silver Spring, MD, USA) in reflectance mode (log 1/R). Both intact and minced presentation to the instrument were explored. Qualitative analysis of optical information through PCA and SIMCA analysis showed differences in muscles resulting from two different feeding systems.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.63-71
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• 2015

Purpose - The characteristics of the modern management environment in Korea clearly involve the limitations of knowledge management, globalization, changes in industrial structures, polarization of the economy, consumption, and education, and the demand for creative management. To achieve a continuous competitive advantage for individuals as well as organizations, Wisdom Management can be said to be a paradigm for the current environment. The Research is an alternative to environmental management in the early study of the need to conceptualize the theoretical approach to wisdom management. In other words, it presents a new management paradigm for a business environment of uncertainty and unpredictability. Furthermore, it aims to propose Wisdom Management as an alternative in the modern management environment as well as a topic of discourse. Its purpose is to provide basic knowledge to people who study and practice in this field to strengthen the competitiveness of individuals and companies. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper first provides six characteristics of the current management environment at home and abroad. It then attempts to emphasize the necessity of wisdom based on such characteristics by classifying wisdom according to recent management study research. This allows the derivation of definitions of wisdom management, suggesting its components and properties. Results - The six characteristics of the modern business environment are: 1) limits of knowledge, 2) intensifying globalized competition, 3) changes in industry structure - IoT (Internet of all Things) trend, 4) serious polarization and social unrest diffusion, 5) personal and organizational competitiveness creativity requirements, and 6) domestic special national and social situations. Therefore, accordingly, wisdom can be defined and classified as: wisdom that offers potential integration beyond knowledge, practicing and maintaining knowledge wisdom as an efficient strategy for an organization wisdom as a decision-making process that addresses ambivalence wisdom as the pursuit of common goods based on ethics; and, wisdom as creativity that involves intuition and insight. This paper attempts to define Wisdom Management in accordance with these definitions of wisdom. Wisdom Management is a management system that is awareof the current environment given in the multidimensional perspective, achieves the efficiency of the organization and the goals of common good through an uncertain decision-making process, based on the organization of individual and organizational knowledge, and the internal experiences and resources. Wisdom Management components include human beings, virtue, knowledge, creativity, and ambivalent thinking. Its properties include intentionality, self-destructiveness, creative and ethical reflexivity, complexity, insight, unpredictability, ambivalence, and wholeness. Conclusions - Since all organizations face the limitations of their environment, crises, and opportunities, applying wisdom in management to develop as Wisdom Management can be an inevitable alternative to the uncertainties of the management environment faced by modern society. The conceptualization of Wisdom Management forms a valuable context to further advance knowledge management theory into practice. It is also a cornerstone of strategic management and can provide insight into its potential for success and implementation.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.519-527
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• 2016

The demand of construction risk analysis is rapidly increased to improve the competitiveness of construction companies and the sound management of the construction project. However, estimating the amount and uncertainty of the risk is difficult due to the wide range of risks in the construction industry. Moreover, most of the research on risk management of construction risk is only focused on the causes of risk without separate the internal and external risk. This study statistically analysis the internal risk and external risk based on the accidents cases which are caused at construction sites to define the difference and importances of the risk. An accident cause analysis and T-test analysis are carried out to reach the goal of study. The results of the study are expected to be used as a guideline of construction project risk analysis.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.523-530
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• 2017

In this study, a method of probabilistic evaluation of the performance point of the structure obtained by capacity spectrum method (CSM) is presented. The performance point of the 4-story and 1-bay steel structure was determined by using CSM according to ATC-40. In order to analyze whether the demand spectrums exceed the performance limit of the structure, the limit displacements are derived for the performance limit of the structure defined from the plastic deformation angle of the structural member. In addition, by selecting a total of 30 artificial seismic wave having the response spectrum similar to the design response spectrum, the fragility curves were derived by examining whether the response spectrum obtained from the artificial seismic wave were exceeded each performance limit according to the spectral acceleration. The maximum likelihood method was used to derive the fragility curve using observed excess probabilities. It has been confirmed that there exists a probability that the response acceleration value of the design response spectrum corresponding to each performance limit exceeds the performance limit. This method has a merit that the stochastic evaluation can be performed considering the uncertainty of the seismic waves with respect to the performance point of the structure, and the analysis time can be shortened because the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is not necessary.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

The optimal design of water distribution system have started with the least cost design of single objective function using fixed hydraulic variables, eg. fixed water demand and pipe roughness. However, more adequate design is accomplished with considering uncertainties laid on water distribution system such as uncertain future water demands, resulting in successful estimation of real network's behaviors. So, many researchers have suggested a variety of approaches to consider uncertainties in water distribution system using uncertainties quantification methods and the optimal design of multi-objective function is also studied. This paper suggests the new approach of a multi-objective optimization seeking the minimum cost and maximum robustness of the network based on two uncertain variables, nodal demands and pipe roughness uncertainties. Total design procedure consists of two folds: least cost design and final optimal design under uncertainties. The uncertainties of demands and roughness are considered with Latin Hypercube sampling technique with beta probability density functions and multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGA) is used for the optimization process. The suggested approach is tested in a case study of real network named the New York Tunnels and the applicability of new approach is checked. As the computation time passes, we can check that initial populations, one solution of solutions of multi-objective genetic algorithm, spread to lower right section on the solution space and yield Pareto Optimum solutions building Pareto Front.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.47-58
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• 2015

Purpose - This study aims to seek determinants of department store sales commission rates under consignment contracts based on transaction cost theory, the power-dependence view, and the resource-based view. A consignment contract is a unique contract where the retailer, over a given period, takes possession of goods owned by a supplier, promotes the sales of these goods, and receives a profit share from their sales. Under this contract, the supplier owns the goods until they are sold. In department stores in South Korea, over 70% of overall sales comes through consignment contracts. In other words, this is the most popular contract agreement between large retailers and vendors in South Korea. Consignment contracts yield high profits to department stores with minimal sales uncertainty, stock cost, and marketing investment. Many suppliers believe the consignment contract commission rates are too high. However, department stores disagree. They state that the commissions are not high as they generate new value for the suppliers by accumulating up-to-date merchandise and supporting various marketing programs on their behalf. Recently, consignment contracts have been critically examined and scrutinized by politicians, mass media, and the public of Korea. This study further intends to derive implications reflecting both buyer and seller perspectives as well as offer insights to policy makers in making appropriate decisions. Research design, data, and methodology - To verify the proposed research model and test hypotheses, the authors selected 164 suppliers, which currently have relationships with department stores. This study carefully investigated the reliability, content validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the proposed model. The data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS structural equation modeling program Results - For the transaction cost theory and the power-dependence view, the results indicated that product diversity and demand volatility had a positive impact on the sales dependence on a department store. Dependence in turn had a positive effect on the sales commission under the consignment contract. Based on the resource-based view, the department store's marketing capability, the supplier's perception toward merchandising, and supporting activities could enhance the department store's channel leadership in the buyer-seller relationship. Subsequently, the channel leadership had a positive effect on the sales commission. However, product complexity had no relationship with department store dependence. Conclusions - This is the first empirical research that investigates the determinants of sales commissions under consignment contracts in the domestic retail industry. This study reveals several theoretical and practical implications for both marketing scholars and marketers. In terms of theoretical implication, this study integrated and enlarged certain theoretical background, such as transaction cost theory, the power-dependence view, and the resource-based view, to explain the determinants of sales commissions under consignment contracts that include sales revenue. From a business management viewpoint, this research offers useful insights for policy makers by applying two different perspectives, both the manufacturer and the retailer, in terms of the sales commission issue under a consignment contract.

• Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.39-46
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• 2017

Jack-up drilling rigs are widely used in offshore oil and gas exploration industry. It is originally designed for use in the shallow waters less than 60m of water depth; there is growing demand for their use in deeper water depth over 150m and harsher environmental conditions. In this study, global in-place analysis of jack-up rig leg for North-sea oil well is performed through numerical analysis. Firstly, environmental conditions and seabed characteristics at the North-sea are collected and investigated measurements from survey report. Based on these data, design specifications are established and the overall basic design is performed. Dynamic characteristics of the jack-up rig for North-sea are considered in the global in-place analysis both leg and hull and the basic stability against overturning moment is also analyzed. The structural integrity of the jack-up rig leg/hull is verified through the code checks and the adequate safety margin is observed. The uncertainty in jack-up behaviour is greatly influenced by the uncertainties in the soil characteristics that determine the resistance of the foundation to the forces imposed by the jack-up structure. Among the risks above mentioned, the punch-through during pre-loading is the most frequently encountered foundation problem for jack-up rigs. The objective of this paper is to clarify the detailed structure and installation engineering matters for prove the structural safety of jack-up rigs during operation. With this intention the following items are addressed; - Characteristics of structural behavior considering soil effect against environmental loads - Modes of failure and related pre-loading procedure and parameters - Typical results of structural engineering and verification by actual measurement.