• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.176-188
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• 1998

In this paper, it is identified that the optimal level of each performance measures (service and inventory level) is not sensitive to an uncertain environment under JIT Kanban system designed by Moeeni. Moreover, it is proposed that the optimal design method considering multiple performance characteristics is the optimal level decision method according to the relative importance differences of each performance when there exist multiple performance characteristics. The result from the simulation analysis shows that the number of Kanban for stage 3 (final process) and stage 2 is increased at the service level. It is found that the expected loss is minimal when the cycle time decreases and the container size increases. However, the stage 1 is not affected by the number and cycle time of Kanban. It is thus important to consider carefully the cycle time and the container size of the Kanban to satisfy the demand in right time. In case of inventory level, the working inventory level decreases when the container size is decreased and the working inventory level also decreases slightly when the cycle time of the Kankban is increased in stage 1 and 2.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.334-339
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• 2004

In this study, a new UC (Unit Commitment) algorithm is proposed to consider the uncertainty of a daily load profile. The proposed algorithm calculates the UC results with the lower load level than the one generated by the conventional load forecast and the more hourly reserve allocation. In case of the worse load forecast, the deviation of the conventional UC solution can be overcome with the proposed method. The proposed method is tested with sample systems, which shows that the new UC algorithm yields completely feasible solution even though the worse load forecast is applied. Also, the effects of the uncertain hourly load demand are statistically analyzed especially by the consideration of the average over generation and the average under generation. Finally, it is shown that independent power producers participating in electricity spot-markets can establish bidding strategies by means of the statistical analysis. Therefore, it is expected that the proposed method can be used as the basic guideline for establishing bidding strategies under the deregulation power pool.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.87-100
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• 2000

As a result of rapid advances in communication technology, fiber optics have begun to be adopted in most telecommunication systems 3s an economic choice Due to the trend of evolution toward broadband communication network with fiber optics and electronic devices. the network design problem for broadband communication has been received a great deal of research attention recently. In this paper, we address a topological design problem for broadband local access network with uncertain demands, which has received surprisingly little attention so far. in our problem, we select a set of hubs and links for constructing network expected penalty cost for the amount of undersupplied In addition to the usual cost terms of the fixed demand problem Our problem can be approximated as a mixed 0-1 integer programming problem by using Szwarc’s linear approximation technique. Then the problem is transformed successfully into a version of classical network design model. Some computational experiments for the model and concluding remarks are described.

• IE interfaces
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.179-187
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• 1997

The efficiency of material flow systems in terms of optimal network flow and minimum cost flow has always been an important design and operational goal in material handling and distribution system. In this research, an attempt was made to develop a new algorithm and the model to solve a stochastic material flow network with bidirectional and uncertain flows. A stochastic material flow network with bidirectional flows can be considered from a finite set with unknown demand probabilities of each node. This problem can be formulated as a special case of a two-stage linear programming problem which can be converted into an equivalent linear program. To find the optimal solution of proposed stochastic material flow network, some terminologies and algorithms together with theories are developed based on the partitioning and subgradient techniques. A computer program applying the proposed method was developed and was applied to various problems.

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.45-50
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• 2010

This paper explores a new approach for modeling of decision-making problems that involve uncertain, time-dependent and sequence-dependent processes which can be applied to semiconductor industry. In the proposed approach, which is based on probability theory, approximate sample paths are required to be specified by probability and statistic characteristics. Completely specified sample paths are seen to be elementary and fundamental outcomes of the related experiment. The proposed approach is suitable for modeling real processes more accurately. A case study is applied to a single item production planning problem with continuous and uncertain demand and the solution obtained by the approximate path specification method shows less computational efforts and practically desirable features. The application possibility and general plan of the proposed approach in semiconductor manufacturing process is also described in the paper.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.117-125
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• 2016

In this research, economic analysis of Integrated Information System for Nano-convergence Industy (hereafter 'NANOIN'), which was developed and has been in operation by Organization of Nano-convergence Industrial Cooperation, is conducted. For this purpose, the research has been carried out in the following order. First, NANOIN user's maximum willingness-to-pay is estimated using contingent valuation method, the number for NANOIN users is estimated using Bass Diffusion Model, and annual benefit from NANOIN is estimated. Next, annual cost from NANOIN is estimated using annual budget for NANOIN related planned activities. Finally, economic value of NANOIN is evaluated using economic analysis applied to the estimated annual NANOIN benefit and cost. From the economic analysis, it is found that NANOIN has some economic value. It is expected that the procedures suggested in this research can help to systematically evaluate economic value for public goods which have not only uncertain benefit from user's side but also uncertain demand just like NANOIN.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.5A no.1
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• pp.16-21
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• 2005

In this study, a new Unit Commitment (UC) algorithm is proposed to consider the uncertainty of a daily load profile. The proposed algorithm calculates the UC results with a lower load level than that generated by the conventional load forecast method and the greater hourly reserve allocation. In case of the worst load forecast, the deviation of the conventional UC solution can be overcome with the proposed method. The proposed method is tested with sample systems, which indicates that the new UC algorithm yields a completely feasible solution even when the worst load forecast is applied. Also, the effects of the uncertain hourly load demand are statistically analyzed, particularly by the consideration of the average over generation and the average under generation. Finally, it is shown that independent power producers participating in electricity spot-markets can establish bidding strategies by means of the statistical analysis. Therefore, it is expected that the proposed method can be used as the basic guideline for establishing bidding strategies under the deregulation power pool.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

Korea is expected to become a super-aged society by 2050. Given an aging population and the increasing pressure for the early retirement, a sufficient social safety net for elderly population becomes important. The Korean government introduced public reverse mortgage program in 2007, which is a product for aging seniors and the elderly, The number of reverse mortgage subscribers has also steadily grown. The demand continues to grow, but the reverse mortgage over a long period of time is a highly uncertain and risky product in the position of guarantee or lending institution. Thus, suitable demand prediction of the reverse mortgage subscribers is necessary for stable and sustainable operation. This study uses a Bass diffusion model to forecast the long-term demand for reverse mortgage and provides insight into reverse mortgage by forecasting demand for stability and substantiality of the loan product. We represent the projections of new subscribers on the basis of the data obtained from Korea Housing Finance Corporation. Results show that potential market size of Korean reverse mortgage reaches approximately 760,000-1,160,000 households by 2020. We validate the results by comparing the estimate of the cumulative number of subscribers with that found in literature.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.10 no.16
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• pp.143-147
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• 1987

Safety stocks constitute one of the major means of dealing with the uncertainties associated with variation in demand and lead time. Adeguate safety facilitate production activities and help to assure customers if good service on the other hand, carrying safety storks ties up working capital on goods that sit idle. The major problem of safety stocks management thus of consists of trying to achieve an optimal balance between the other carrying cost and the costs of stock shortage. Therefore, this study aims to find safety stock level of the fixed reorder quantity system and the fixed reorder cycle system of minimizing total cost when both demand and lead time are variable. (The distribution of demand and lead time is a mere assumption that follows the normal distribution) The results can be summarized as follows. i) Safety factor on the safety stock is determined by carrying cost and the costs of stock shortage: An optimal safety stick=the costs of stork shortage($C_s$) (the carrying cost($C_h$)+the costs of stock storage($C_s$). ii) The safety stock level of the fixed reorder quantity system is ($a{\;}_p\sqrt{L}{\sigma}$) under uncertainties. iii) The safety stock level of the fixed reorder cycle system is ($a{\;}_p\sqrt{R+L{\sigma}}$) under uncertain demand and constant lead time. ($a{\;}_p\sqrt{L{\sigma}_d{\;^2+{\mu}^2L{\sigma}^2}$) under demand and lead time uncertainties.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.151-157
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• 1993

In this paper, we investigate the effects of yield randomness for lot-sizing in a multi-stage production system. The practical importance of incorporating yield randomness into production models has been emphasized by many researchers. Yield randomness, especially in semiconductor manufacturing, poses a mojor challenge for production planning and control. The task becomes even more difficult if the demand for final product is uncertain. An attempt to meet the demand with a higher level of confidence forces one to release more input in the fabrication line. This leads to excessive work-in-process (WIP) inventories which cause jobs to spend unpredictably longer time waiting for the machines. The result is that it is more difficult to meet demand with exceptionally long cycle time and puts further pressure to increase the safety stocks. Due to this spiral effect, it is common to find that the capital tied in inventory is the msot significant factor undermining profitability. We propose a policy to determine the quantity to be processed at each stage of a multi-stage production system in which the yield at each stage may be random and may need rework.