• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.485-492
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• 2008

This study confirms that a decadal variation of the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) in the WNP (Western North Pacific) has an influence on the genesis and passage ofa Tropical Cyclone. The decadal mode was obtained by calculating the SST anomaly on the domain $150^{\circ}E-190^{\circ}E$, and $5^{\circ}S-5^{\circ}N$. Such decadal variation was subsequently analyzed to confirm that it is a dominant mode in central Pacific region. Next, after classifying the years into relatively positive years and relatively negative years, the characteristics of Tropical Cyclone in each year, such as a genesis and passage frequency, were investigated. Compared to the relatively negative years, during the relatively positive years, the location of Tropical Cyclone genesis was biased toward South-Eastern region, while the characteristics of the cyclone were more distinct during late season of the year trom September to December than in mid season from June to August. Examining the movement passage through the observation of passage fiequency, there was a significant difference between positive year and negative year in their passages at a 90% confidence level. Moreover, the number of Tropical Cyclone, maximum wind, and life time also showed higher values in positive years than in negative years. These features were confirmed by examining the 850hPa cyclonic flow field, vorticity field, and vertical wind shear field, all of which contribute to the genesis of a Tropical Cyclone.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.454-464
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• 2010

A probability prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Northwestern Pacific area was developed using the logistic regression method. Total five predictors were used in this model: the lower-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). The values for four predictors except for SST were obtained from difference of spatial-averaged value between May and January, and the time average of Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3.4 index from February to April was used to see the SST effect. As a result of prediction for the TC genesis frequency from June to December during 1951 to 2007, the model was capable of predicting that 21 (22) years had higher (lower) frequency than the normal year. The analysis of real data indicated that the number of year with the higher (lower) frequency of TC genesis was 28 (29). The overall predictability was about 75%, and the model reliability was also verified statistically through the cross validation analysis method.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.583-595
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• 2012

The potential for tropical cyclogenesis in a given oceanic and atmospheric environments can be represented by genesis potential index (GPI). Using the 18 Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the annual cycle of GPI and interannual variability of GPI are analyzed in this study. In comparison, the annual cycle of GPI calculated from reanalysis data is revisited. In particular, GPI differences between CMIP5 models and reanalysis data are compared, and the possible reasons for the GPI differences are discussed. ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) has a tropical phenomenon, which affects tropical cyclone genesis and its passages. Some dynamical interpretations of tropical cyclogenesis are suggested by using the fact that GPI is a function of four large-scale parameters. The GPI anomalies in El Nino or La Nina years are discussed and the most contributable factors are identified in this study. In addition, possible dynamics of tropical cyclogenesis in the Northern Hemisphere Pacific region are discussed using the large-scale factors.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.279-286
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• 2008

In the tropical western Pacific (especially, west of 135oE, including South China Sea and the Philippines), during boreal summer, it was found that a strong correlation exists between the tropical cyclone activity and the drought conditions in Korea. During the summer drought, firstly, there were strong ascending flows over the tropical western Pacific with more tropical cyclone genesis, and to compensate for this, descending flows develop in the mid-latitudes, thereby causing drought; in other words, a secondary circulation is formed between the tropical western Pacific and mid-latitudes of East Asia. Secondly, the developments of both the subtropical western Pacific high and the Manchurian low are suppressed. As a result, both the land-sea pressure gradient and the southerly flow from low-latitudes to Korean area are also weakened, which reduces approaches of tropical cyclones to this area despite the high frequency of their geneses.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.561-571
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• 2019

To understand the genesis of tropical cyclones (TC), we computed TC genesis probability (GPr) by partitioning a highly localized genesis frequency (GFq) into nearby grid boxes in proportion to the spatial coherence of genesis potential index (GPI). From the analysis of TCs simulated by the Seoul National University Atmosphere Model Version 0 and the observed TCs, it was shown that GPr reasonably converges to GFq when averaged over a long-term period in a decent grid size, supporting its validity as a proxy representing a true TC GPr. The composite anomalies of the gridded GPr in association with the Asia summer monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are much less noisy than those of GFq, and consequently are better interpretable. In summary, GPr converges to GFq, varies more smoothly than GFq, represents the spatiotemporal variations of GFq better than GPI, and depicts GFq with greater spatial details than other spatially smoothed GFqs.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.336-344
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• 2013

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) using the four teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian high Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific, Antarctic oscillation (AAO) near Australia, and the circulation in the equatorial central Pacific during the boreal spring (April-May). This statistical model is verified by analyzing the differences hindcasted for the high and low TCGF years. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: four anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like north-high and south-low in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (positive AAO phase) near Australia, and cyclonic circulation in the Nino3.4 region were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. Consequently, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP, strengthened convection in the SWP instead.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.359-372
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• 2016

The time-series of Walker circulation index (WCI) in this study shows the strengthening of the Walker circulation in recent years. To further understand the large-scale features related to the WCI strengthening, a difference between the averaged meteorological variables in two time periods 1999-2013 and 1984-1998 is analyzed. The difference in 850 hPa stream flows between the two periods shows that the anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) are dominant due to the strengthening of anomalous anticyclonic circulations at the subtropical Pacific of both hemispheres. The difference between the averaged zonal atmospheric circulations over $5^oS-5^oN$ in the two periods confirms that upward flows are strengthened at the tropical western Pacific and downward flows are strengthened at the tropical central and eastern Pacific in recent years. It matches the WCI strengthening in recent years. The time-series of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency from July to September shows that a mean TC genesis frequency from 1999-2013 decreases compared to that of the time period 1984-1998. The monsoon trough in the period 1984-1998 was located in the further east direction and stronger than that in the period 1999-2013. TCs in the recent period that are generated in further west than TCs in the past period moved from the west. Thus, the TC intensity along the coasts in East Asia becomes weaker in recent period. The intensification of Walker circulation in recent years is related to the weaker TC intensity in East Asia through strengthened anomalous anticyclones at the subtropical western Pacific.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.539-550
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• 2009

This study found that tropical cyclones (TCs) formed for fall in 2007 over the western North Pacific were distributed in high-latitudes comparing to 56-year (1951-2006) climatological mean. The frequency and latitude of TC genesis became higher than 56-year climatological mean from September onward in 2007 and all the TCs that formed to the north of 20$^{\circ}$N was also distributed after September in 2007. These characteristics of TC genesis for fall in 2007 could be confirmed through analyzing various variables, such as a large-scale atmospheric circulation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), vertical zonal wind shear, and sea surface temperature (SST). On the other hand, a frequency of the TC that occurred to the north of 200N showed a clear interdecadal variation and its decreasing trend was distinctive in recent years. Its intensity was also weaker that TCs that did to the south of 20$^{\circ}$N. However, a latitude of TC genesis showed an increasing trend until recent years, whose variation was consistent with trend that through a SST analysis, warm SST went north in recent years.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.851-864
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• 2015

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995 and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analayzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippine to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.31-39
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• 2009

This study has found that there is a reverse phase with interdecadal variation in temporal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency (TCGF) between Northwest sector and Southeast sector, based on climatological mean tropical cyclone genesis location over the western North Pacific. The TCGF in the Northwest sector has been increased since the mid 1980s (1986-2005), while TCGF in the Southeast sector was higher until the early 1970s (1951-1970). The analysis of a difference between 1986-2005 and 1951-1970 showed results as follows: i) Through the analysis of vertical wind shear (VWS) and sea surface temperature (SST), less VWS and higher SST in the former (latter) period was located in the Northwest (Southeast) sector. ii) In the analysis of TC passage frequency (TCPF), TCs occurred in the Northwest sector frequently passed from east sea of the Philippines, through East China Sea, to Korea and Japan in the latter period, while TCs in the former period frequently has a lot of influences on South China Sea (SCS). In the case of TCs occurred in the Southeast sector, TCs in the west (east), based on $150^{\circ}E$ had a high passage frequency in the latter (former) period. In particular, TCs during the latter period frequently moved toward from the east sea of the Philippines to SCS and southern China. iii) This difference of TCPF between the two periods was characterized by 500 hPa anomalous pressure pattern. Particularly, anomalous cyclonic circulation strengthened over the East Asian continent caused anomalous southerlies along the East Asian coast line from the east sea of the Philippines to be predominate. These anomalous winds served as steering flows that TC can easily move toward same regions.