Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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A Heuristic Estimation of the Genesis Probability of Tropical Cyclones using Genesis Frequency and Genesis Potential Index

  • Shin, Jihoon (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Chanwoo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Siyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Sungsu (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2019.11.13
  • Accepted : 2019.12.20
  • Published : 2019.12.31
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Abstract

To understand the genesis of tropical cyclones (TC), we computed TC genesis probability (GPr) by partitioning a highly localized genesis frequency (GFq) into nearby grid boxes in proportion to the spatial coherence of genesis potential index (GPI). From the analysis of TCs simulated by the Seoul National University Atmosphere Model Version 0 and the observed TCs, it was shown that GPr reasonably converges to GFq when averaged over a long-term period in a decent grid size, supporting its validity as a proxy representing a true TC GPr. The composite anomalies of the gridded GPr in association with the Asia summer monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are much less noisy than those of GFq, and consequently are better interpretable. In summary, GPr converges to GFq, varies more smoothly than GFq, represents the spatiotemporal variations of GFq better than GPI, and depicts GFq with greater spatial details than other spatially smoothed GFqs.

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