• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.257-263
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• 2009

Focusing on the idea that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Theoretical solution was derived in a simple way. Mere application of ESM does not make good forecasting accuracy for the time series which has non-linear trend and/or trend by month. A new method to cope with this issue is required. In this paper, combining the trend removal method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. An approach to this method is executed in the following method. Trend removal by a linear function is applied to the original shipping data of consumer goods. The combination of linear and non-linear function is also introduced in trend removal. For the comparison, monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful especially for the time series that has stable characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend and also the case that has non-linear trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.82-88
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• 1997

This paper describes an empirical equation which can be used to predict the engine condition of supersonic aircraft. The equation, which is derived from the trend analysis of JOAP data, represents the concentration of Fe particles in the engine oil. The result of the trend analysis shows that the concentration of Fe particles is a function of running time of engine oil. Meanwhile the slope of Fe concentration is a function of running time of engine. Threfore, the empirical equation was derived as $w=a(t_e).t_o+b$. However, the equation could not enough to diagnose the damaged part of engine quantitatively. To make up for the weak points of the equation, qualitative analysis was carried out. For that purpose wear debris were collected from the abnormal engine and analyzed by EDS to detect the damaged parts of engine.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.103-107
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• 2004

Empirical equation has been developed by employing the new non-dimensional physical number 'wave action slope' for the estimation of breakwater armor weight. Van der Meer(1987) introduced Iribarren number for the same purpose, but his equation shows very different trend of distribution with the condition of Iribarren number. On the other hand the equation related with wave action slope keeps the same trend of distribution over the whole region. When the parameter is related to the Iribarren number, the equation of wave action slope has a very high accuracy.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.244-253
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• 2013

In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.22-32
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• 2007

This paper describes a study of a helicopter database for the sizing stage of a preliminary design process. The database includes specifications and performance parameters for more than 150 conventional single rotor helicopters currently in market. Design parameters, including configuration and weight parameters, have been analyzed and trend curve equations(regression equations) are derived using the regression analysis method. Finally, the applicability of this research result was verified whether the method is reliable for being adopted as a useful design tool in the early stage of a helicopter design process.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1992.10a
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• pp.155-160
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• 1992

In this study , the size effect on diagonal shear failure of reinforced high strength concrete beams was investigated, For this purpose, ten singly reinforced high strength concrete beams without web reinforcement were tested for five different dimensions of effective depth which were varied from 67mm to 915mm. The compressive strength of concrete used in this study was 53.7 MPa. One type of reinforcing bar with nominal yield strength of 400 MPa was used. Test results were analyzed and compared with strength predicted by ACI code equation, Zutty's equation and Bazant &Kim's equation. As the results, ACI code equation was seriously unconservative for beams with d of 915mm. Bazant & Kim's equation predicted well the trend of test data. Within the scope of this study, there was no clear difference in size effect with variation of compressive strength of concrete.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.42-56
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• 1987

Fatigue Fracture behaviors of the TIG-welded aluminum alloys, such as Al 2024-T4, A1 5050-0 and Al 7075-T7 were investigated when a crack propagated from tensile residual stress region and compressive residual stress region. The experimental values were compared with the values expected by the Forman equation. The experimental results are summarized as the following: (1) In case of fatigue crack propagation from residual stress region, the values predicted by Forman equation were Found to exactly corresponded to the experimental values. (2) When the stress intensityfactors affected by compressive residual stress, Kres, were greater than the stress intensity factors by minimum applied stresses. Kmin, the Forman equation was found to be improper to be applied directly, but the equation appeared to be proper, if the stress ratio was modified to zero. (3) The experimental results confirmed that residual stress was relaxed by repeated tensile loading and the relaxing trend was greater in case of compressive residual stress than that of tensile residual stress.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.3815-3832
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• 1975

This study was made to investigate various engineering properties of earth materials resulting from their changes in density and moisture content. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. The finner the grain size is, the bigger the Optimum Moisture Content(OMC) is, showing a linear relationship between percent passing of NO. 200 Sieve (n) and OMC(Wo) which can be represented by the equation Wo=0.186n+8.3 2. There is a linear relationship of inverse proportion between OMC and Maximum Dry Density (MDD) which can be represented by the equation ${\gamma}$d=2.167-0.026Wo 3. There is an exponential curve relationship between void ratio (es) and MDD whose equation can be expressed ${\gamma}$d=2.67e-0.4550.9), indicating that as MDD increases, void ratio decreases. 4. The coefficent of permeability increases in proportion to decrease of the MDD and this increase trend is more obvious in coarse material than in fine material, and more obvious in cohesionless soil than in cohesive soil. 5. Even in the same density, the coefficient of permeability is smaller in wet than in dry from the Optimum Moisture Content. 6. Showing that unconfined compressive strength increases in proportion to dry density increase, in unsaturated state the compacted in dry has bigger strength value than the compacted in wet. On the other hand, in saturated state, the compacted in dry has a trend to be smaller than the compacted in wet. 7. Even in the same density, unconfined compressive strength increases in proportion to cohesion, however, when in small density and in saturated state, this relationship are rejected. 8. In unsaturated state, cohesion force is bigger in dry than in wet from OMC. In saturated state, on the other hand, it is directly praportional to density. 9. Cohesion force decreases in proportion to compaction rate decrease. And this trend is more evident in coarse matorial than in fine material. 10. Internal friction angle of soil is not influenced evidently on the changes of moisture content and compaction rate in unsaturated state, On the other hand in saturated state it is influenced density. 11. Cohesion force is directly proportional to unconfined compressive strength(qu), indicating that it has approximately 35 percent of qu in unsaturated state and approximately 70 percent of qu in saturated state.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.62 no.1
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• pp.53-69
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• 2024

The solubility of Cloxacillin sodium in ethanol, 1-propanol, isopropanol, and acetone solutions was measured at different temperatures. The melting property was also tested by using a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC). Then, the solubility data were fitted using Apelblat equation and λh equation, respectively. The Wilson model and NRTL model were not utilized to correlate the test data, since Cloxacillin sodium will decompose directly after melting. For comparison purposes, the four empirical models, i.e., Apelblat equation, λh equation, Wilson model and NRTL Model, were evaluated by using 1155 solubility curves of 103 solutes tested under different monosolvents and temperatures. The comparison results indicate that the Apelblat equation is superior to the others. Furthermore, a new method (named the calculation method) for determining the Apelblat equation using only three data points was proposed to solve the problem that there may not be enough solute in the determination of solubility. The log-logistic distribution function was used to further capture the trend of the correlation and to make better quantitative comparison between predicted data and the experimental ones for the Apelblat equation determined by different methods (fitting method or calculation method). It is found that the proposed calculation method not only greatly reduces the number of test data points, but also has satisfactory prediction accuracy.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.176-182
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• 1996

This paper describes an empherical equation which is to predict the engine condition of the supersonic aircraft. The equation, which is a function of running time of engine and engine oil, is derived from the trend analysis of JOAP data. Qualitative analysis is carried out to make up for the weak points in the current JOAP system. Also wear debris collected from the abnormal engine is analyzed by EDS to detect the damaged parts of engine.