• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.88-97
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• 2023

Traffic flow prediction is of great significance in urban planning and traffic management. As the complexity of urban traffic increases, existing prediction methods still face challenges, especially for the fusion of spatiotemporal information and the capture of long-term dependencies. This study aims to use the fusion model of graph neural network to solve the spatio-temporal information fusion problem in traffic flow prediction. We propose a new deep learning model Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion using Graph Neural Networks (STFGNN). We use GCN module, TCN module and LSTM module alternately to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. GCN and multi-core TCN capture the temporal and spatial dependencies of traffic flow respectively, and LSTM connects multiple fusion modules to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. In the experimental evaluation of real traffic flow data, STFGNN showed better performance than other models.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.1975-1988
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• 2019

Short-term traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in areas such as transportation management, traffic control and guidance. For short-term traffic flow regression predictions, the main challenge stems from the non-stationary property of traffic flow data. In this paper, we design an ensemble cascading prediction framework based on extremely randomized trees (extra-trees) using a boosting technique called EET to predict the short-term traffic flow under non-stationary environments. Extra-trees is a tree-based ensemble method. It essentially consists of strongly randomizing both the attribute and cut-point choices while splitting a tree node. This mechanism reduces the variance of the model and is, therefore, more suitable for traffic flow regression prediction in non-stationary environments. Moreover, the extra-trees algorithm uses boosting ensemble technique averaging to improve the predictive accuracy and control overfitting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that extra-trees have been used as fundamental building blocks in boosting committee machines. The proposed approach involves predicting 5 min in advance using real-time traffic flow data in the context of inherently considering temporal and spatial correlations. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and lower variance and computational complexity when compared to the existing methods.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.171-176
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• 2007

To give a guarantee a consistently high level of quality and reliability of Telematics traffic service, traffic flow forecasting is very important issue. In this paper, we proposed an adaptable integrated prediction model to predict the traffic flow in the future. Our model combines two methods, short-term prediction model and long-term prediction model with different combining coefficients to reflect current traffic condition. Short-term model uses the Kalman filtering technique to predict the future traffic conditions. And long-term model processes accumulated speed patterns which means the analysis results for all past speeds of each road by classifying the same day and the same time interval. Combining two models makes it possible to predict future traffic flow with higher accuracy over a longer time range. Many experiments showed our algorithm gives a better precise prediction than only an accumulated speed pattern that is used commonly. The result can be applied to the car navigation to support a dynamic shortest path. In addition, it can give users the travel information to avoid the traffic congestion areas.

• 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
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• pp.84-98
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• 1995

Network-based model were developed to predict short term future traffic volume based on current traffic, historical average, and upstream traffic. It is presumed that upstream traffic volume can be used to predict the downstream traffic in a specific time period. Three models were developed for traffic flow prediction; a combination of historical average and upstream traffic, a combination of current traffic and upstream traffic, and a combination of all three variables. The three models were evaluated using regression analysis. The third model is found to provide the best prediction for the analyzed data. In order to balance the variables appropriately according to the present traffic condition, a heuristic adaptive weighting system is devised based on the relationships between the beginning period of prediction and the previous periods. The developed models were applied to 15-minute freeway data obtained by regular induction loop detectors. The prediction models were shown to be capable of producing reliable and accurate forecasts under congested traffic condition. The prediction systems perform better in the 15-minute range than in the ranges of 30-to 45-minute. It is also found that the combined models usually produce more consistent forecasts than the historical average.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.719-728
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• 2022

The prediction of short-term traffic flow is the theoretical basis of intelligent transportation as well as the key technology in traffic flow induction systems. The research on short-term traffic flow prediction has showed the considerable social value. At present, the support vector regression (SVR) intelligent prediction model that is suitable for small samples has been applied in this domain. Aiming at parameter selection difficulty and prediction accuracy improvement, the artificial bee colony (ABC) is adopted in optimizing SVR parameters, which is referred to as the ABC-SVR algorithm in the paper. The simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with SVR algorithm, and the feasibility of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is verified by result analysis. Continuously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with particle swarm optimization SVR (PSO-SVR) algorithm and genetic optimization SVR (GA-SVR) algorithm, and a better optimization effect has been attained by simulation experiments and verified by statistical test. Simultaneously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm and wavelet neural network time series (WNN-TS) algorithm, and the prediction accuracy of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is improved and satisfactory prediction effects have been obtained.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권9호
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• pp.3598-3614
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• 2020

With the increase of motor vehicles and tourism demand, some traffic problems gradually appear, such as traffic congestion, safety accidents and insufficient allocation of traffic resources. Facing these challenges, a model of Spatio-Temporal Dilated Convolutional Network (STDGCN) is proposed for assistance of extracting highly nonlinear and complex characteristics to accurately predict the future traffic flow. In particular, we model the traffic as undirected graphs, on which graph convolutions are built to extract spatial feature informations. Furthermore, a dilated convolution is deployed into graph convolution for capturing multi-scale contextual messages. The proposed STDGCN integrates the dilated convolution into the graph convolution, which realizes the extraction of the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic flow data, as well as features of road occupancy. To observe the performance of the proposed model, we compare with it with four rivals. We also employ four indicators for evaluation. The experimental results show STDGCN's effectiveness. The prediction accuracy is improved by 17% in comparison with the traditional prediction methods on various real-world traffic datasets.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.130-138
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• 2023

The traffic flow in an urban area is affected by the date, weather, and regional traffic flow. The existing methods are weak to model the dynamic road network features, which results in inadequate long-term prediction performance. To solve the problems regarding insufficient capacity for dynamic modeling of road network structures and insufficient mining of dynamic spatio-temporal features. In this study, we propose a novel traffic flow prediction framework called shared spatio-temporal attention convolution optimization network (SSTACON). The shared spatio-temporal attention convolution layer shares a spatio-temporal attention structure, that is designed to extract dynamic spatio-temporal features from historical traffic conditions. Subsequently, the graph optimization module is used to model the dynamic road network structure. The experimental evaluation conducted on two datasets shows that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods at all time intervals.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.310-318
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• 2012

Detecting intrusion attacks accurately and rapidly in wireless networks is one of the most challenging security problems. Intrusion attacks of various types can be detected by the change in traffic flow that they induce. Wireless industrial networks based on the wireless networks for industrial automation-process automation (WIA-PA) standard use a superframe to schedule network communications. We propose an intrusion detection system for WIA-PA networks. After modeling and analyzing traffic flow data by time-sequence techniques, we propose a data traffic prediction model based on autoregressive moving average (ARMA) using the time series data. The model can quickly and precisely predict network traffic. We initialized the model with data traffic measurements taken by a 16-channel analyzer. Test results show that our scheme can effectively detect intrusion attacks, improve the overall network performance, and prolong the network lifetime.

• 산업공학
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.349-356
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• 2010

The role of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is to efficiently manipulate the traffic flow and reduce the cost in logistics by using the state of the art technologies which combine telecommunication, sensor, and control technology. Especially, the hardware part of ITS is rapidly adapting to the up-to-date techniques in GPS and telematics to provide essential raw data to the controllers. However, the software part of ITS needs more sophisticated techniques to take care of vast amount of on-line data to be analyzed by the controller for their decision makings. In this paper, the authors develop a traffic congestion prediction model based on several different parameters from the sensory data captured in the Vehicle Detection System (VDS). This model uses the neural network technology in analyzing the traffic flow and predicting the traffic congestion in the designated area. This model also validates the results by analyzing the errors between actual traffic data and prediction program.