• Title/Summary/Keyword: stock price average

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Expiration-Day Effects: The Korean Evidence (주가지수 선물과 옵션의 만기일이 주식시장에 미치는 영향: 개별 종목 분석을 중심으로)

  • Choe, Hyuk;Eom, Yun-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.41-79
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    • 2007
  • This study examines the expiration-day effects of stock index futures and options in the Korean stock market. The so-called 'expiration-day effects', which are the abnormal stock price movements on derivatives expiration days, arise mainly from cash settlement. Index arbitragers have to bear the risk of their positions unless they liquidate their index stocks on the expiration day. If many arbitragers execute large buy or sell orders on the expiration day, abnormal trading volumes are likely to be observed. If a lot of arbitragers unwind positions in the same direction, temporary trading imbalances induce abnormal stock market volatility. By contrast, if some information arrives at market, the abnormal trading activity must be considered a normal process of price discovery. Stoll and Whaley(1987) investigated the aggregate price and volume effects of the S&P 500 index on the expiration day. In a related study, Stoll and Whaley(1990) found a similarity between the price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading and of the stocks that are not. Thus far, there have been few studies about the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market. While previous Korean studies use the KOSPI 200 index data, we analyze the price and trading volume behavior of individual stocks as well as the index. Analyzing individual stocks is important for two reasons. First, stock index is a market average. Consequently, it cannot reflect the behavior of many individual stocks. For example, if the expiration-day effects are mainly related to a specific group, it cannot be said that the expiration of derivatives itself destabilizes the stock market. Analyzing individual stocks enables us to investigate the scope of the expiration-day effects. Second, we can find the relationship between the firm characteristics and the expiration-day effects. For example, if the expiration-day effects exist in large stocks not belonging to the KOSPI 200 index, program trading may not be related to the expiration-day effects. The examination of individual stocks has led us to the cause of the expiration-day effects. Using the intraday data during the period May 3, 1996 through December 30, 2003, we first examine the price and volume effects of the KOSPI 200 and NON-KOSPI 200 index following the Stoll and Whaley(1987) methodology. We calculate the NON-KOSPI 200 index by using the returns and market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 index. In individual stocks, we divide KOSPI 200 stocks by size into three groups and match NON-KOSPI 200 stocks with KOSPI 200 stocks having the closest firm characteristics. We compare KOSPI 200 stocks with NON-KOSPI 200 stocks. To test whether the expiration-day effects are related to order imbalances or new information, we check price reversals on the next day. Finally, we perform a cross-sectional regression analysis to elaborate on the impact of the firm characteristics on price reversals. The main results seem to support the expiration-day effects, especially on stock index futures expiration days. The price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to have price effects, abnormal return volatility, and large volumes during the last half hour of trading on the expiration day. Return reversals are also found in the KOSPI 200 index and stocks. However, there is no evidence of abnormal trading volume, or price reversals in the NON-KOSPI 200 index and stocks. The expiration-day effects are proportional to the size of stocks and the nearness to the settlement time. Since program trading is often said to be concentrated in high capitalization stocks, these results imply that the expiration-day effects seem to be associated with program trading and the settlement price determination procedure. In summary, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market do not exist in all stocks, but in large capitalization stocks belonging to the KOSPI 200 index. Additionally, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market are generally due, not to information, but to trading imbalances.

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The Market Effect of Additions or Deletions for KOSPI 200 Index : Comparison between Groups by Size and Market Condition (KOSPI 200지수종목의 변경에 따른 시장반응 : 규모와 시장요인에 따른 그룹간 비교분석)

  • Park, Young-S.;Lee, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Dae-Sik
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.65-94
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    • 2009
  • The event of change in KOSPI 200 Index composition is one of the main subjects for the test of EMH. According to EMH, when a certain event is not related with firm's fundamental value, stock price should not change after the announcement of news. This hypothesis leads us to the conclusion of horizontal demand curve of stock. This logic was questioned by Shleifer(1986) and argued that downward sloping demand curve hypothesis was supported. But Harris and Gruel(1986) found a different empirical evidence that price reversal occurs in the long run, which is called price pressure hypothesis. They argued that short term price effect by large block trading (price pressure) is offset in the long run because these event is unrelated to fundamental value. Therefor, they argued that EMH can not be rejected in the long run. Until now, there are two empirical studies with Korean market data in this area. Using a data with same time period of $1996{\sim}1999$, Kweon and Park(2000) and Ahn and Park(2005) showed that stock price or beta is not significantly affected by change in index composition. This study retested this event expanding sample period from 1996 to 2006, and analyzed why this event was considered an uninformative events in the preceding studies. We analyzed a market impact by separating samples according to firm size and market condition. In case of newly enlisted firm, we found the evidence supporting price pressure hypothesis on average. However, we found the long run price effect in the sample of large firms under bearish markets. At the same time, we know that the number of samples under the category of large firms under bearish markets is relatively small, which drives the same result of supporting the hypothesis that change in index composition is a non-informative event on average. Also, the long run price effect of large size firms under bearish markets was supported by the analyses using trading volumes. On the other hand, in case of delisting from the index, we found the long run price effect but that was not supported by trading volume analyses.

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Stock Reaction to the Implementation of Extensible Business Reporting Language

  • JUNUS, Onong;IRWANTO, Andry
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.675-685
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the reaction of stock prices on the implementation of Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) in companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Using the event study method and calculating abnormal returns of the 2015 financial statements of 462 companies listed on the IDX, findings showed that 49 companies have not applied the XBRL format in their financial statements. Based on the results of the Average Abnormal Return (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Return (CAAR) values, using the one-sample test, investors react to shares in companies that have not implemented XBRL and who have implemented XBRL; however, based on the independent t-test based on average values there are differences between companies that have not applied XBRL and those who have implemented XBRL. This research only looks at the one-year implementation of XBRL in financial reporting (2015), then the research does not separate which companies are on time in the delivery of financial statements to the public through the IDX website. Our research contributes to the understanding of the use of XBRL in corporate financial reporting because before the XBRL financial reporting format was published, the company had published a financial statement format based on the legal provisions of financial statements in Indonesia.

A Study on the Strategies of Hedging System Trading Using Single-Stock Futures (개별주식선물을 이용한 시스템트레이딩 헤징전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Nam-Hyun
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2014
  • We investigate the hedging effectiveness of incorporating single-stock futures into the corresponding stocks. Investing in only stocks frequently causes too much risk when market volatility suddenly rises. We found that single-stock futures help reduce the variance and risk levels of the corresponding stocks invested. We use daily prices of Korean stocks and their corresponding futures for the time period from December 2009 to August 2013 to test the hedging effect. We also use system trading technique that uses automatic trading program which also has several simulation functions. Moving average strategy, Stochastic's strategy, Larry William's %R strategy have been considered for hedging strategy of the futures. Hedging effectiveness of each strategy was analyzed by percent reduction in the variance between the hedged and the unhedged variance. The results clearly showed that examined hedging strategies reduce price volatility risk compared to unhedged portfolio.

A Study on the Investment Efficiency of CB(Convertible Bond) (CB(전환사채)의 투자효율성에 관한 실증연구)

  • Sun-Je Kim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2020
  • CB(Convertible bond) is mezzanine security that have the characteristics of bonds and stocks. From the perspective of investors, the purpose of the research is to empirically investigate the degree of investment efficiency of CB and to suggest efficient investment plans. The research method investigated the maturity interest rate, conversion price, and conversion date for CB, and then linked it with daily stock price fluctuations after the conversion date to determine the degree of investment efficiency and stock conversion effect of CB. As a result of the study, it was analyzed that the ratio of the conversion price exceeded days was only about 1/4 of the conversion date, so the investment efficiency was low. The conversion day yield was -6.3% on average and the maturity day yield was -5.2% on average, showing a minus return on average, which was calculated differently from investor expectations. It was analyzed that the number of stocks with a minus conversion day is 2.4 times greater than the number of plus stocks and 3.7 times more than the number of plus stocks with a minus maturity return, so the expected return on stock conversion of CB is low. The research contribution was derived from the problem that the expected rate of return of CB is not high, and it is that the investor's point of view when purchasing CB was established.

Are Business Cycles in the Fashion Industry Affected by the News? -An ARIMAX Time Series Correlation Analysis between the KOSPI Index for Textile & Wearing Apparel and Media Agendas- (패션산업의 경기변동은 뉴스의 영향을 받는가? -섬유의복 KOSPI와 미디어 의제의 ARIMAX 시계열 상관관계 분석-)

  • Hyojung Kim;Minjung Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.779-803
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    • 2023
  • The growth of digital news media and the stock price index has resulted in economic fluctuations in the fashion industry. This study examines the impact of fashion industry news and macroeconomic changes on the Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI over the past five years. An auto-regressive integrated moving average exogenous time series model was conducted using the fashion industry stock market index, the news topic index, and macro-economic indicators. The results indicated the topics of "Cosmetic business expansion" and "Digital innovation" impacted the Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI after one week, and the topics of "Pop-up store," "Entry into the Chinese fashion market," and "Fashion week and trade show" affected it after two weeks. Moreover, the topics of "Cosmetic business expansion" and "Entry into the Chinese fashion market" were statistically significant in the macroeconomic environment. Regarding the effect relation of Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI, "Cosmetic business expansion," "Entry into the Chinese fashion market," and consumer price fluctuation showed negative effects, while the private consumption change rate, producer price fluctuation, and unemployment change rate had positive effects. This study analyzes the impact of media framing on fashion industry business cycles and provides practical insights into managing stock market risk for fashion companies.

Estimating the Determinants of Households' Monthly Average Income : A Panel Data Model Approach (패널 데이터모형을 적용한 가구당 월평균 가계소득 결정요인 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Hyun-Joo;Cheul, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.2038-2045
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    • 2010
  • Households' monthly average income is composed of various factors. This study paper studies focuses on estimating the determinants of a households' monthly average income. The region for analysis consist of three groups, that is, the whole country, a metropolitan city(such as Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangiu, Daejeon, Ulsan.) and Seoul. Analyzing period be formed over a 57 time points(2005. 01~2009. 09). In this paper the dependent variable setting up the households' monthly average income, explanatory (independent) variables are composed of the consumer price index, employment to population ratio, Index of housing sale price, the preceding composite index, loans of housing mortgage, spending rate for care medical expense and the composite stock price index. In looking at the factors which determine the monthly average income, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the composite index and housing loans. The study also produced evidence supporting the view that there is a significant negative relationship between employment ratios, the house sale pricing index and spending rates for care or medical needs. The study found that the consumer price index and composite stock price index were not significant variables. The implications of these findings are discussed for further research.

A Study on the Relationship between Internet Search Trends and Company's Stock Price and Trading Volume (인터넷 검색트렌드와 기업의 주가 및 거래량과의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Koo, Pyunghoi;Kim, Minsoo
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we investigate the relationship between Internet search trends and stock market. Under the assumption that investors may use Internet search engine to obtain information for companies of their interests before taking actual investment actions, the relationship between the changes on Internet search volume and the fluctuation of trading volume as well as stock price of a company is analyzed with actual market data. A search trend investment strategy that reflects the changes on Internet search volume is applied to large enterprises' group and to small and medium enterprises' (SMEs) group, and the correlation between profit rate and trading volume is analyzed for each company group. Our search trend investment strategy has outperformed average stock market returns in both KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets during the seven-year study period (2007~2013). It is also shown that search trend investment strategy is more effective to SMEs than to large enterprises. The relationship between changes on Internet search volume and stock trading volume is stronger at SMEs than at large enterprises.

The Influence of Macroeconomics Variables on Sportainment Industry - Case Study Using the Stock Price Changes of Nike, Adidas - (거시경제요인이 스포테인먼트 산업에 미치는 영향 - NIKE, Adidas 기업 주가를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Hun-Il
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.99-113
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    • 2021
  • This study to verify the influence of the macroeconomic factors to sportainment industry and also to find the value of use. For this, 'Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)', 'West Texas intermediate (WTI)', and 'Gold Price (GP)' were selected from macroeconomic factors, and the 'Stock Price' of NIKE and Adidas for sportainment industry factor. The transaction data for 20 years (5,285 trade days) were analyzed through a two-step extraction process. Durbin-Watson regression analysis was performed to prove the influence and predict. From these analyses, the first, the Macroeconomics factors were found to have a significant effect on the sportainment industry. The second, each different levels of regression equations were found by the time setting, the environmental characteristics of each time period, and mutual relation between factors. Finally, it was found that the regression equation between specific period can be used for the future prediction in sportainment industry.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.