• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.54 no.10
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• pp.480-486
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• 2005

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components, though only aging failure probability has been considered in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution, and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type H Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than the traditional calculation method using gradient descent algorithm. This paper shows calculation procedure of the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates that the estimated results are close enough to real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean systems. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an are-related reliability index.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1651-1664
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• 2013

Precise analysis on deterioration processes of road pavements is not so simple matter due to severe uncertainty originated from a lot of explanatory variables engaged in. For those reasons, most analytical models for pavement deterioration prediction have often preferred to probabilistic approaches than deterministic models. However, the general probabilistic approaches that treat overall characteristics of population or entire sample would not be suitable for providing detail or localized information on their changing process. Considering the aspects, this paper aimed to suggest a stochastic disaggregation method to analyze the localized deterioration speeds and its variances changed by time and condition states. In addition, life expectancies and their uncertainty were estimated by probabilistic algorithm using the disaggregated stochastic process. For an empirical study, pavement inspection data (crack) accumulated from 2003 to 2010 from Korean national highway network was applied. This study can contribute to securing reliability of life cycle cost analysis, which is one of the primary analyses in road asset management, with much advanced deterioration forecasting functions. In addition, it would be meaningful trials as fundamental research for preventive maintenance strategy that demands essential understanding on changing process of the deterioration speed of pavement.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.37-50
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• 2002

Simultaneous estimation of accuracy and probability corresponding to a prediction interval is considered in this study. Traditional application of confidence interval forecasting consists in evaluation of interval limits for a given significance level. The wider is this interval, the higher is probability and the lower is the forecast precision. In this paper a measure of stochastic forecast accuracy is introduced, and a procedure for balanced estimation of both the predicting accuracy and confidence probability is elaborated. Solution can be obtained in an optimizing approach. Suggested method is applied to constructing confidence intervals for parameters estimated by normal and t distributions

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.119-126
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• 1996

In this paper, a method of substructural identification is presented for the estimation of localized structural parameters. for this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for the substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. The sequential prediction error method is used fer the estimation of unknown localized parameters. Using the substructural method, the number of unknown parameters can be reduced and the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. For some substructures, the effect of the input excitation is expressed in terms of the responses at the inferences with the main structure, and substructural identification may be carried out without measuring the actual input excitation to the whole structure. Example analysis is carried out for idealized structural models of a multistory building and a truss bridge. The results indicate that the present method is effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.119-127
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• 2010

This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.23-33
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• 2017

Accurate prediction of stochastic behavior of occupants is a well known problem for improving prediction performance of building energy use. Many researchers have been tried various sensors that have information on the status of occupant such as $CO_2$ sensor, infrared motion detector, RFID etc. to predict occupants, while others have been developed some algorithm to find occupancy probability with those sensors or some indirect monitoring data such as energy consumption in spaces. In this research, various sensor data and energy consumption data are utilized for decision tree algorithms (C4.5 & CART) for estimation of sub-hourly occupancy status. Although the experiment is limited by space (private room) and period (cooling season), the prediction result shows good agreement of above 95% accuracy when energy consumption data are used instead of measured $CO_2$ value. This result indicates potential of IoT data for awareness of indoor environmental status.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.1314-1319
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• 2008

Fatigue reliability problems are nowadays actively considered in the design of mechanical components. Recently, Dimension Reduction Method using Kriging approximation (KDRM) was proposed by the authors to efficiently calculate statistical moments of the response function. This method, which is more tractable for its sensitivity-free nature and providing the response PDF in a few number of analyses, is adopted in this study for the reliability analysis. Before applying this method to the practical fatigue problems, accuracies are studied in terms of parameters of the KDRM through a number of numerical examples, from which best set of parameters are suggested. In the fatigue reliability problems, good number of experimental data are necessary to get the statistical distribution of the S-N parameters. The information, however, are not always available due to the limited expense and time. In this case, a family of curves with prediction interval, called P-S-N curve, is constructed from regression analysis. Using the KDRM, once a set of responses are available at the sample points at the mean, all the reliability analyses for each P-S-N curve can be efficiently studied without additional response evaluations. The method is applied to a spring design problem as an illustration of practical applications, in which reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is conducted by employing stochastic response surface method which includes probabilistic constraints in itself. Resulting information is of great practical value and will be very helpful for making trade-off decision during the fatigue design.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2007.04a
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• pp.589-594
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• 2007

This paper is shown new method for durability assesment and design have been noticed to be very valuable has been successfully applied to predict concrete structures. This paper provides that a new approach for predicting the corrosion durability of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride attack. In this method, the prediction can be updated successive1y by the Bayesian theory when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account into the model the probability of the durability limit is determined from the samples obtained from the Latin hypercube sampling technique. The new method may be very useful in designing important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures under chloride attack environments.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.92-100
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• 2009

This paper presents a voltage sag assessment program. The program provides various functions for stochastic assessment of voltage sags such as short-circuit analysis, the determination of the area of vulnerability and the calculation of expected sag frequency(ESF). Effective data visualization functions based on computer graphics and animation were also implemented in the developed program. In this paper, the concept of voltage sag assessment and the assessment method considering generator scheduling and time-varying fault rates are presented. The influence of generator scheduling and time-varying fault rates on voltage sag prediction is also described by performing case studies using the developed program.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.63-72
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• 2015

This paper presents the issue that is predicting the movement of an agent in an enclosed space by using the MDP (Markov Decision Process). Recent researches on the optimal path finding are confined to derive the shortest path with the use of deterministic algorithm such as $A^*$ or Dijkstra. On the other hand, this study focuses in predicting the path that the agent chooses to escape the limited space as time passes, with the stochastic method. The MDP reward structure from GIS (Geographic Information System) data contributed this model to a feasible model. This model has been approved to have the high predictability after applied to the route of previous armed red guerilla.