• Title/Summary/Keyword: small-medium company

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Some lessons from German startup policies (독일의 창업정책과 정책적 시사점)

  • Kim, Young-woo
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2018
  • For a long time the German economy was primarily defined by large corporations and thriving small and medium-sized enterprises. Since about 2005 a second strand has started to emerge and it is one which is becoming increasingly important and is creating jobs - start-ups in the digital sector. This start-up activity is taking an important role in Germany's economic development: Start-up companies spawn innovations and create jobs, thus promoting the concept of competition. In general "start-up" refers to digitally-driven companies that are not more than five years old. Germany's start-up policy consists of three main parts. First of all, Germany has the characteristics of technology-based start-ups. The Hartz reform since 2002 has shown its focus on technology-based start-ups. In particular, it is the most appropriate for a start-up company to take the role of a new technology company to respond to changes in the global industrial structure. Second, it is approaching from a long-term perspective. In this regard, the small business policy, including Germany's new business policy, is seen as a tradition that can be consistent and can make policy decisions based on the basics rather than following the times. Third, the government is implementing policies centered on demand. Germany's start-up policy is summarized as a technology-based policy and new job creation. The policy response is that the government seeks the best combination of policies by adapting them to the times from the broad trend of employment market policies. What is important here is that policies are made based on consumers, not suppliers, in the process of policy making and implementation. With the Digital Agenda 2020 the Federal government has likewise committed itself to preparing the digital economy for international competition and making Germany the "No. 1 digital growth country in Europe". Ever since 1998 the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) has awarded the "EXIST" start-up scholarship to students and graduates. The Ministry also invests in the High Tech start-up fund. Together with Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and 18 other investors from the world of business the seed investor promotes young technology companies. Germany offers start-ups a good infrastructure and lots of funding opportunities. Berlin is regarded as Europe's start-up capital and also attracts lots of international young entrepreneurs.

Development of Sample Survey Design for the Industrial Research and Development Statistics (표본조사에 의한 기업 연구개발활동 통계 작성방안)

  • Cho, Seong-Pyo;Park, Sun-Young;Han, Ki-In;Noh, Min-Sun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • The Survey on the Industrial Research and Development(R&D) is the primary source of information on R&D performed by Korea industrial sector. The results of the survey are used to assess trends in R&D expenditures. Government agencies, corporations, and research organizations use the data to investigate productivity determinants, formulate tax policy, and compare individual company performance with industry averages. Recently, Korea Industrial Technology Association(KOITA) has collected the data by complete enumeration. Koita has, currently, considered sample survey because the number of R&D institutions in industry has been dramatically increased. This study develops survey design for the industrial research and development(R&D) statistics by introducing a sample survey. Companies are divided into 8 groups according to the amount of R&D expenditures and firm size or type. We collect the sample from 24 or 8 sampling strata and compare the results with those of complete enumeration survey. The estimates from 24 sampling strata are not significantly different to the results of complete enumeration survey. We propose the survey design as follows: Companies are divided into 11 groups including the companies of which R&D expenditures are unknown. All large companies are included in the survey and medium and small companies are sampled from 70% and 3%. Simple random sampling (SRS) is applied to the small company partition since they show uniform distribution in R&D expenditures. The independent probability proportionate to size (PPS) sampling procedure may be applied to those companies identified as 'not R&D performers'. When respondents do not provide the requested information, estimates for the missing data are made using imputation algorithms. In the future study, new key variables should be developed in survey questionnaires.

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Mediating Effect of Opportunity Recognition Among Entrepreneurial Alertness, Mentoring, & Number of Mentoring on New Ventures' Performance (기업가적 기민성과 멘토링 및 멘토링 횟수와 기업성과 관계에서 기회인지의 매개효과 영향)

  • Park, Mi-Jung;Lee, Seon-Ho;Hwangbo, Yun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2021
  • The Korean government is currently expanding the business startup incubator support program and funds for new ventures with innovative technology in order to spread the second venture boom. However, despite the fact that entrepreneurial education and mentoring that entrepreneurs should have are important parts for the sustainable growth of the startup, some companies selected for government support programs are reluctant to participate in programs such as entrepreneurship education and mentoring for the sole purpose of funding commercialization. This research addressed the effects of entrepreneurial alertness with opportunity awareness as its medium and the small business mentoring service along with the number of times the mentoring has taken place, on the corporate performances. The results of empirical research are as follow: the first one is that scanning-search and evaluation-judgment can influence a company's performance (financial, non-financial) through opportunity recognition, with the exception of association-connection, which is a sub-factor of entrepreneurial alertness. Secondly, it was found to affect a company's financial and non-financial performance through opportunity recognition for financing mentoring, technical support mentoring, and management support mentoring. Thirdly, it was found that the number of mentoring also affects the financial and non-financial performance of a company through opportunity recognition. The implications of this study are that it should be revisited that program managers consider rooms that do not violate the startup founder's strategic decision-making opportunities when designing and operating the program as entrepreneurial alertness sub-factor association-connection does not affect corporate performance through opportunity recognition. This study also emphasizes the need for customized mentoring to meet the outcome goals of each startup, as it has been empirically clarified that the mentoring provided to the startup by the government's support is important. The contribution of this research is that entrepreneurial alertness and opportunity recognition that are treated as important components in research for entrepreneurship, and the factors of mentoring and mentoring frequency that are recognized as important elements in the practical aspect of startup business are clarified theoretically and empirically as an influential factor in corporate performance. And this study also provide a rationale for the startup business support agency supplying mentoring.

The Analysis of Operational Characteristics in Contract - managed Highschool Foodservice in Seoul (서울시 소재 고등학교 위탁급식 운영현황 분석)

  • Yang, Il-Seon;Kim, Hyeon-A;Sin, Seo-Yeong;Jo, Mi-Na;Park, Su-Yeon;Cha, Jin-A;Lee, Bo-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the operational characteristics of the contract-managed highschool foodservice and to analyze the factors to effect the menu price. The data was collected from 249 highschools in Seoul. The results are as follows; Those surveyed highschools were established as 1 national, 74 public, and 174 private institution. Highschools were classified as 176 academic, 66 vocational, and 7 specific purposed institution. Students were organized as 70 boys', 23 girls', and 41 coeducational highschools. Most highschool started contract-managed highschool foodservice from 1999 and the period of foodservice contract was most 3 years and the operation styles in food distribution were 96 classrooms, 105 dining halls and 17 classrooms combined dining halls. The scale of contract foodservice management companies was 63.1% small and medium and 36.9% large enterprises. The surveyed highschools had the average meal price 2,141 won per meal and they had 1,518 pupils on the register. The participating rate to the foodservice was 68.5%. The facilities investment cost of the contract foodservice management company was 179,204,230 won for private institutions and was 138,119,010 won for national&public institutions. The period of the contract was 3.22 years in private institutions, which was significantly higher than national&public institutions which showed 2.85 years. The commissary foodservice schools had higher facilities investment cost than conventional foodservice schools. Classrooms foodservice had higher participating foodservice rate than Dining halls. The investment cost for facilities showed high in order of girls', boys', and coeducational high schools, and the number on the register and the number participating in the foodservice showed high in order of boys', girls', and coeducational high schools. The number on the register showed the highest in academic and vocational schools, specific purposed institutions in sequence, and the number participating in the foodservice showed high in order of academic schools, specific purposed institutions and vocational. However, the participating foodservice rate showed high in specific purposed institution, academic and vocational schools in order, and the meal price, the investment cost for facilities showed high in specific purposed institution, academic and vocational schools in sequence. Regionally, the district south of Han river had the average meal price 2,266.13 won, which showed higher in the eastern part which had 2,033.33 won. The western part had the average investment cost for facilities of 233,331,060 won, and the central district 126,137,140 won. The number on the register showed 1845.68 in the eastern part and 1308.00 in Dong-Jak area, that had clear differences among areas. When the period of the contract went longer, the investment cost for facilities had a tendency to increase. The significant differences were existed among meal price, the investment cost for facilities, the number on the register, the number participating in the foodservice, and the participating foodservice rate. The investment cost for facilities had increased according to the number participating in the foodservice and the participating foodservice rate. And the large enterprises showed higher participating foodservice rate than the small and medium enterprises.

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Exploring Domestic ESG Research Trends: Focusing on Domestic Research on ESG from 2012 to 2021 (국내 ESG 연구동향 탐색: 2012~2021년 진행된 국내 학술연구 중심으로)

  • Park, Jae Hyun;Han, Hyang Won;Kim, Na Ra
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.191-211
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    • 2022
  • As the value of highly sustainable companies increases, ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance) has emerged as the biggest topic of discussion for companies around the world. In addition, as domestically, more research is being done on ESG in line with global trends, it is necessary to examine ESG research trends. Accordingly, ESG academic papers that have been published for the past 10 years were collected for each year, and frequency analysis was conducted using text mining techniques regarding key themes and thesis titles. This paper analyzed the number of selected publications by year and the cumulated number of studies through bibliometric analysis. The findings suggested that the number of ESG papers is increasing each year and that academic interest in ESG-related issues continues to abound. Next, according to the results of frequency analysis of the keywords and titles of the research papers, the words- "ESG", "company", "society", "responsibility", "management", "investment", and "sustainability"- were extracted. This analysis identified the research fields and keywords that have been relevant to ESG in the past 10 years. As a result of comparing the major ESG issues presented in recent overseas studies and the common factors of the ESG key keywords presented in this study, it was confirmed that the environment is the focus of recent studies compared to previous studies. Third, it was found that the data used by domestic ESG studies mainly include the KEJI index, the KRX index, and the KCGS ESG evaluation index. After identifying the main research subjects of ESG papers, research found that 8 out of 152 domestic ESG studies were focused on SMEs. Through this study, it was possible to confirm the ESG research trend and increase in research, and future researchers divided the research topics and research keywords and presented basic data for selecting more diverse research topics. Based on both, the arguments of previous ESG studies conducted on SMEs and the results of this study, there is a lack of studies on guidelines for ESG practice and their application to SMEs, and more ESG research regarding SMEs will need to be conducted in the future.

The Exploration of New Business Areas in the Age of Economic Transformation : a Case of Korean 'Hidden Champions' (Small and Medium Niche Enterprises (경제구조 전환기에서 새로운 비즈니스 영역의 창출 : 강소기업의 성공함정과 신시장 개척)

  • Lee, Jangwoo
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.73-88
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    • 2009
  • This study examines the characteristics of 24 Korean hidden champions such as key success factors, core competences, strategic problems, and desirable future directions. The study categorized them into 8 types with Danny Miller's four trajectories and top manager's decision making style(rationality and passion). Danny Miller argued in his book, Icarus paradox, that outstanding firms will extend their orientations until they reach dangerous extremes and their momentum will result in common trajectories of decline. He suggested four very common success types: Craftsmen, Builders, Pioneers, Salesmen. He also suggested common trajectories of decline:Focusing(from Craftsmen to Tinkers), Venturing(from Builders to Imperialists), Inventing(from Pioneers to Escapists), Decoupling(from Salesmen to Drifts). In Korea, successful startups appear to possess three kinds of drive: Technology-drive, Vision-drive, Market-drive. Successful technology-driven firms tend to grow as craftsmen or pioneers. Successful vision-driven and market-driven ones tend to grow as builders and salesmen respectively. Korean top managers or founders seem to have two kinds of decision making style: Passion-based and Rationality-bases. Passion-based(passionate) entrepreneurs are biased towards action or proactiveness in competing and getting things done. Rationality- based ones tend to emphasis the effort devoted to scanning and analysing information to better understand a company's threats, opportunities and options. Consequently this study suggested 4*2 types of Korean hidden champions: (1) passionate craftsmen, (2) rational craftsmen, (3) passionate builders, (4) rational builders, (5) passionate pioneers, (6) rational pioneers, (7) passionate salesmen, (8) rational salesmen. These 8 type firms showed different success stories and appeared to possess different trajectories of decline. These hidden champions have acquired competitive advantage within domestic or globally niche markets in spite of the weak market power and lack of internal resources. They have maintained their sustainable competitiveness by utilizing three types of growth strategy; (1) penetrating into the global market, (2) exploring new service market, (3) occupying the domestic market. According to the types of growth strategy, these firms showed different financial outcomes and possessed different issues for maintaining their competitiveness. This study found that Korean hidden champions were facing serious challenges from the transforming economic structure these days and possessed the decline potential from their success momentum or self-complacence. It argues that they need to take a new growth engine not to decline in the turbulent environment. It also discusses how firms overcome the economic crisis and find a new business area in promising industries for the future. It summarized the recent policy of Korean government called as "Green Growth" and discussed how small firms utilize such benefits and supports from the government. Other implications for firm strategies and governmental policies were discussed.

Development of the Accelerated Life Test Method & Life Test Equipment for the Counterweight of the Construction Machinery (건설기계용 카운터웨이트 시험장비 및 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Lee, Gi-Chun;Lee, Young-Bum;Choi, Byung-Oh;Kang, Bo-Sik;Kim, Do-Sik;Choi, Jong-Sik;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.1275-1280
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    • 2015
  • A large-sized exciter that vibrates a two-ton component is required to simulate the field operating conditions of a counterweight of an excavator. However, it is difficult for a small-medium sized company to obtain a large exciter for the life test of a counterweight which is an equivalent counterbalancing weight that balances a load. Therefore, in this study, we developed life test equipment for evaluating the reliability of construction machinery weighing about two tons. It simulates the field operating conditions using rotational vibrators consisting of electric motors. A failure analysis of the counterweight was also performed for the major components. Field data acquired from various sites were applied to the life test design of the counterweight. Finally, a zero-failure qualification test based on the accelerated life test was designed, and there was no failure during the test, which guarantees a life of $B_5$ 10,000 hours.

A Transaction Cost Approach to Analysis on Determinants of Korean SMEs' Transformation into Direct Export (거래비용이론을 이용한 중소기업의 직접수출 전환 결정요인 분석)

  • HA, Sungheun;Jeong, Yoon-Say;Park, Hyun-Hee
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.181-201
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    • 2016
  • In this study, transaction cost approach was applied to analysis on direct export determinants of SMEs by using key attributes of transactions, asset specificity, environmental uncertainty, frequency and marketing capability, with a parameter of opportunism. Typical Transaction Cost Analysis theory explains that when transaction cost with business channels(whether it is for buy or sell) increase, the firms integrate the channels. So it is a choice made by firms regarding direct versus indirect channels. The theory was extended to a model of choice of institutional form of direct or indirect export by a norm of opportunism in this empirical study. The survey result showed that lower level of asset specificity and marketing capability or higher level of environmental uncertainty were likely to expose indirect exporters to higher level of opportunism of direct exporter. And we also saw that indirect exporters were likely to choose direct export chanel when opportunism of exporters was higher. From the standpoint of theory, we can say that the basic propositions of the Transaction Cost Analysis, except the attribute of frequency, are supported. This study result could provide a profiling of target business areas and firms for government's policy on direct export promotion of SMEs.

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Study on the determinants of employment duration in the youth-intern project (중소기업 청년인턴 취업자의 재직기간 분석)

  • Park, Sungik;Ryu, Jangsoo;Kim, Jonghan;Cho, Jangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2016
  • In general, employment duration is influenced by the individual characteristics (level-1) as well as type of the occupational characteristics (level-2). That is, the data has hierarchical structure in the sense that individual employment duration is influenced by the individual-level variables (level-1) and the job-level (level-2) variables. In this paper, we study the determinants of the employment duration of youth-intern in the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) using Cox's mixed effect model. Major results at level-1 variables are as followings. First, the hazard rate of treatment group is lower than that of control group. Second, the hazard rate of woman is lower than that of man. Also, the hazard rate is lower, for the older and the workers working in the bigger company. Investigation of level-2 variables has shown that random effect for job-level is statistically significant.