• Title/Summary/Keyword: series model

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A Series of Process of Electrical Integration and Function Test for Flight Model of STEP Cube Lab. (큐브위성 STEP Cube Lab. 비행모델의 전자조립 및 기능시험 과정)

  • Jeong, Hyeon-Mo;Chae, Bong-Geon;Han, Sang-Hyuck;Oh, Hyun-Ung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.9
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    • pp.814-824
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    • 2016
  • The mission objective of STEP Cube Lab. (Cube Laboratory for Space Technology Experimental Project) classified as a pico-class satellite is to find space core technologies researched at domestic industry or university and to verify these technologies on mission orbit. To implement this objective, system level electrical integration and function test (EIT) by using developed flight software were performed in compliance with system requirements. And the effectiveness of the flight model (FM) was verified through launch and thermal vacuum test at acceptance level. This paper will introduce a series of process of electrical function tests for FM EIT, launch and thermal vacuum tests.

Filtered Coupling Measures for Variable Selection in Sparse Vector Autoregressive Modeling (필터링된 잔차를 이용한 희박벡터자기회귀모형에서의 변수 선택 측도)

  • Lee, Seungkyu;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.871-883
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    • 2015
  • Vector autoregressive (VAR) models in high dimension suffer from noisy estimates, unstable predictions and hard interpretation. Consequently, the sparse vector autoregressive (sVAR) model, which forces many small coefficients in VAR to exactly zero, has been suggested and proven effective for the modeling of high dimensional time series data. This paper studies coupling measures to select non-zero coefficients in sVAR. The basic idea based on the simulation study reveals that removing the effect of other variables greatly improves the performance of coupling measures. sVAR model coefficients are asymmetric; therefore, asymmetric coupling measures such as Granger causality improve computational costs. We propose two asymmetric coupling measures, filtered-cross-correlation and filtered-Granger-causality, based on the filtered residuals series. Our proposed coupling measures are proven adequate for heavy-tailed and high order sVAR models in the simulation study.

Fatigue Life Analysis of Rolling Contact Model Considering Stress Gradient Effect (응력 구배 효과를 고려한 구름 접촉 모델의 피로수명해석)

  • Cho, InJe;Yu, YongHun;Lee, Bora;Cho, YongJoo
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.272-280
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    • 2015
  • Recently, Luu suggested fatigue life equation that uses every term of the Crossland equation with stress gradient effect. Luu’s model, however, has a limit of being unable to coverage small radii that are less than a specified length. Furthermore, rolling model has a very small contact area compared to the rolling element size, and fatigue failure occurs on the small radius such as surface asperity by cyclic loading. Therefore, it is necessary to modify fatigue life equation in order to enable fatigue analysis for a small radius. In this paper, the fatigue life considering a stress gradient effect in rolling contact was obtained using Luu’s modified equation. Fatigue analysis was performed to study the effect of stress gradient on the fatigue life using newly adopted equation and to compare the results with pervious models. In order to do this, a series of simulation such as surface stress analysis, subsurface stress analysis, and fatigue analysis are conducted for two rolling balls of same size that contact each other. Through such a series of processes, the fatigue life can be calculated and equation that is proposed in this paper evaluates the fatigue life in case the contact area is small.

Ultrafiltration of oil-in-water emulsion: Analysis of fouling mechanism

  • Chakrabarty, B.;Ghoshal, A.K.;Purkait, M.K.
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
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    • v.1 no.4
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    • pp.297-316
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    • 2010
  • Membrane fouling is one of the major operational concerns of membrane processes which results in loss of productivity. This paper investigates the ultrafiltration (UF) results of synthetic oil-in-water (o/w) emulsion using flat sheets of polysulfone (PSf) membrane synthesized with four different compositions. The aim is to identify the mechanisms responsible for the observed permeate flux reduction with time for different PSf membranes. The experiments were carried out at four transmembrane pressures i.e., 68.9 kPa, 103.4 kPa, 137.9 kPa and 172.4 kPa. Three initial oil concentrations i.e., 75 $mgL^{-1}$, 100 $mgL^{-1}$ and 200 $mgL^{-1}$ were considered. The resistance-in-series (RIS) model was applied to interpret the data and on that basis, the individual resistances were evaluated. The significances of these resistances were studied in relation to parameters, namely, transmembrane pressure and initial oil concentration. The total resistance to permeate flow is found to increase with increase in both transmembrane pressure and initial oil concentration while for higher oil concentration, resistance due to concentration polarization is found to be the prevailing resistance. The applicability of the constant pressure filtration models to the experimental data was also tested to explain the blocking process. The study shows that intermediate pore blocking is the dominant mechanism at the initial period of UF while in the later period, the fouling process is found to approach cake filtration like mechanism. However, the duration of pore blocking mechanism is different for different membranes depending on their morphological and permeation properties.

Investigation of flow-regime characteristics in a sloshing pool with mixed-size solid particles

  • Cheng, Songbai;Jin, Wenhui;Qin, Yitong;Zeng, Xiangchu;Wen, Junlang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.925-936
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    • 2020
  • To ascertain the characteristics of pool sloshing behavior that might be encountered during a core disruptive accident of sodium-cooled fast reactors, in our earlier work several series of experiments were conducted under various scenarios including the condition with mono-sized solid particles. It is found that under the particle-bed condition, three typical flow regimes (namely the bubble-impulsion dominant regime, the transitional regime and the bed-inertia dominant regime) could be identified and a flow-regime model (base model) has been even successfully established to estimate the regime transition. In this study, aimed to further understand this behavior at more realistic particle-bed conditions, a series of simulated experiments is newly carried out using mixed-size particles. Through analyses, it is verified that for present scenario, by applying the area mean diameter, our previously-developed base model can provide the most appropriate predictive results among the various effective diameters. To predict the regime transition with a form of extension scheme, a correction factor which is based on the volume-mean diameter and the degree of convergence in particle-size distribution is suggested and validated. The conducted analyses in this work also indicate that under certain conditions, the potential separation between different particle components might exist during the sloshing process.

Development of Demand Forecasting Model for Seoul Shared Bicycle (서울시 공유자전거의 수요 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lim, Heejong;Chung, Kwanghun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2019
  • Recently, many cities around the world introduced and operated shared bicycle system to reduce the traffic and air pollution. Seoul also provides shared bicycle service called as "Ddareungi" since 2015. As the use of shared bicycle increases, the demand for bicycle in each station is also increasing. In addition to the restriction on budget, however, there are managerial issues due to the different demands of each station. Currently, while bicycle rebalancing is used to resolve the huge imbalance of demands among many stations, forecasting uncertain demand at the future is more important problem in practice. In this paper, we develop forecasting model for demand for Seoul shared bicycle using statistical time series analysis and apply our model to the real data. In particular, we apply Holt-Winters method which was used to forecast electricity demand, and perform sensitivity analysis on the parameters that affect on real demand forecasting.

A Stock Price Prediction Based on Recurrent Convolution Neural Network with Weighted Loss Function (가중치 손실 함수를 가지는 순환 컨볼루션 신경망 기반 주가 예측)

  • Kim, HyunJin;Jung, Yeon Sung
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 2019
  • This paper proposes the stock price prediction based on the artificial intelligence, where the model with recurrent convolution neural network (RCNN) layers is adopted. In the motivation of this prediction, long short-term memory model (LSTM)-based neural network can make the output of the time series prediction. On the other hand, the convolution neural network provides the data filtering, averaging, and augmentation. By combining the advantages mentioned above, the proposed technique predicts the estimated stock price of next day. In addition, in order to emphasize the recent time series, a custom weighted loss function is adopted. Moreover, stock data related to the stock price index are adopted to consider the market trends. In the experiments, the proposed stock price prediction reduces the test error by 3.19%, which is over other techniques by about 19%.

A Study for Estimation of Chlorophyll-a in an Ungauged Stream by the SWMM and an Artificial Neural Network (SWMM과 인공신경망을 이용한 미 계측 하천의 클로로필a 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Taeuk;Lee, Sangho;Kim, Ilkyu;Lee, Namju
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.670-679
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    • 2011
  • Chlorophyll-a is a major water quality indicator for an algal bloom in streams and lakes. The purpose of the study is to estimate chlorophyll-a concentration in tributaries of the Seonakdonggang by an artificial neural network (ANN). As the tributaries are ungauged streams, a watershed runoff and quality model was used to simulate water quality parameters. The tributary watersheds include urban area and thus Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to simulate TN, TP, BOD, COD, and SS. SWMM, however, can not simulate chlorophyll-a. The chlorophyll-a series data from the tributaries were estimated by the ANN and the simulation results of water quality parameters using SWMM. An assumption used is as follows: the relation between water quality parameters and chlorophyll-a in the tributaries of the Seonakdonggang would be similar to that in the mainstream of the Seonakdonggang. On the assumption, the measurement data of water quality and chlorophyll-a in the mainstream of the Seonakdonggang were used as the learning data of the ANN. Through the sensitivity analysis, the learning data combination of water quality parameters was determined. Finally, chlorophyll-a series were estimated for tributaries of the Seonakdonggang by the ANN and TN, TP, BOD, COD, and temperature data from those streams. The relative errors between the estimated and measured chlorophyll-a were approximately 40 ~ 50%. Though the errors are somewhat large, the estimation process for chlorophyll-a may be useful in ungauged streams.

Autoencoder factor augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model (오토인코더를 이용한 요인 강화 HAR 모형)

  • Park, Minsu;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2022
  • Realized volatility is well known to have long memory, strong association with other global financial markets and interdependences among macroeconomic indices such as exchange rate, oil price and interest rates. This paper proposes autoencoder factor-augmented heterogeneous autoregressive (AE-FAHAR) model for realized volatility forecasting. AE-FAHAR incorporates long memory using HAR structure, and exogenous variables into few factors summarized by autoencoder. Autoencoder requires intensive calculation due to its nonlinear structure, however, it is more suitable to summarize complex, possibly nonstationary high-dimensional time series. Our AE-FAHAR model is shown to have smaller out-of-sample forecasting error in empirical analysis. We also discuss pre-training, ensemble in autoencoder to reduce computational cost and estimation errors.

A Study on the Interrelationship of Trade, Investment and Economic Growth in Myanmar: Policy Implications from South Korea's Economic Growth

  • Oo, Thunt Htut;Lee, Keon-Hyeong
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.146-170
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper addresses the concepts of FDI-Trade-Growth nexus in Myanmar's economy and empirically investigates the interrelationships of trade, investment and economic growth to reveal the growth model of Myanmar's economy. Additionally, this paper also addresses the cooperative strategies between Myanmar and South Korea through a case study related to South Korea's economic growth. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the interrelationship among FDI, trade, growth, labor force and inflation in Myanmar. This study employs ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) to conduct an analysis of the FDI-Trade-Growth relationships using the time series data from 1970 to 2016 and a conducted case study of South Korea provided for practical implication on cooperative strategies between Myanmar and Korea. Findings - Export equation was chosen through the diagnostic tests. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Export in Myanmar is positively influenced by labor force, FDI, capital formation and negatively impacted by import and instable inflation rate in the long run. In the short run, GDP and import positively influence export. The Granger causality test proves that Myanmar is an FDI/labor force-led Growth economy, where FDI and labor force are main drivers of export followed by GDP in Myanmar. The case study of South Korea provided that Korea's tax and credit system for promoting export-led FDI industries and cooperative units for joint ventures between Korea and Myanmar in export-led FDI industries are recommended. Originality/value - No study has yet to be conducted on the interrelationships of macroeconomic factors from the perspectives of FDI-Trade-Growth Nexus in Myanmar under the assumption of labor force and inflation rate as fundamental conditions. The current study also covered a relatively longer period of time series data from 1970 to 2016. This paper also conducts a case study of South Korea's experience in order to evaluate the findings and provide better policy implications.