• Title/Summary/Keyword: series model

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Time Series Crime Prediction Using a Federated Machine Learning Model

  • Salam, Mustafa Abdul;Taha, Sanaa;Ramadan, Mohamed
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2022
  • Crime is a common social problem that affects the quality of life. As the number of crimes increases, it is necessary to build a model to predict the number of crimes that may occur in a given period, identify the characteristics of a person who may commit a particular crime, and identify places where a particular crime may occur. Data privacy is the main challenge that organizations face when building this type of predictive models. Federated learning (FL) is a promising approach that overcomes data security and privacy challenges, as it enables organizations to build a machine learning model based on distributed datasets without sharing raw data or violating data privacy. In this paper, a federated long short- term memory (LSTM) model is proposed and compared with a traditional LSTM model. Proposed model is developed using TensorFlow Federated (TFF) and the Keras API to predict the number of crimes. The proposed model is applied on the Boston crime dataset. The proposed model's parameters are fine tuned to obtain minimum loss and maximum accuracy. The proposed federated LSTM model is compared with the traditional LSTM model and found that the federated LSTM model achieved lower loss, better accuracy, and higher training time than the traditional LSTM model.

Direct construction of a four-dimensional mesh model from a three-dimensional object with continuous rigid body movement

  • Otomo, Ikuru;Onosato, Masahiko;Tanaka, Fumiki
    • Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.96-102
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    • 2014
  • In the field of design and manufacturing, there are many problems with managing dynamic states of three-dimensional (3D) objects. In order to solve these problems, the four-dimensional (4D) mesh model and its modeling system have been proposed. The 4D mesh model is defined as a 4D object model that is bounded by tetrahedral cells, and can represent spatio-temporal changes of a 3D object continuously. The 4D mesh model helps to solve dynamic problems of 3D models as geometric problems. However, the construction of the 4D mesh model is limited on the time-series 3D voxel data based method. This method is memory-hogging and requires much computing time. In this research, we propose a new method of constructing the 4D mesh model that derives from the 3D mesh model with continuous rigid body movement. This method is realized by making a swept shape of a 3D mesh model in the fourth dimension and its tetrahedralization. Here, the rigid body movement is a screwed movement, which is a combination of translational and rotational movement.

The Behavior of Shallow Foundation under Eccentric Loads by Centrifuge Model Experiment (원심모형시험에 의한 편심하중을 받는 얕은기초의 거동)

  • Yoo, Nam-Jae;Lee, Myung-Woog;Park, Byung-Soo;Jeong, Gil-Soo
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.22 no.A
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    • pp.229-240
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    • 2002
  • This paper is an experimental and numerical work of Investigating the bearing capacity of shallow foundation of rubble mound under eccentric loads. Parametric centrifuge model tests at the 50g level environments with the model footings in the form of strip footing were performed by changing the loading location of model footing, relative density and materials for ground foundation. For the model ground, crushed rock sampled from a rocky mountain was prepared with a grain size distribution of having an identical coefficient of uniformity to the field condition. Model ground was also prepared with relative densities of 50 % and 80 %. For loading condition, model tests with and without eccentric load were carned out to investigate the effect of eccentric loads and a numerical analysis with the commertially available software of FLAC was performed. For numerical estimation with FLAC, the hyperbolic model of a nonlinear elastic constitutive relationship was used to simulate the stress-stram constitutive relationship of model ground and a series of triaxial compression test were carried out to find the parameters for this model Test results were analyzed and compared with Meyerhof method (1963), effective area method based on the limit equilibrium method, and a numerical analysis with FLAC.

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Cluster Analysis and Meteor-Statistical Model Test to Develop a Daily Forecasting Model for Jejudo Wind Power Generation (제주도 일단위 풍력발전예보 모형개발을 위한 군집분석 및 기상통계모형 실험)

  • Kim, Hyun-Goo;Lee, Yung-Seop;Jang, Moon-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.1229-1235
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    • 2010
  • Three meteor-statistical forecasting models - the transfer function model, the time-series autoregressive model and the neural networks model - were tested to develop a daily forecasting model for Jejudo, where the need and demand for wind power forecasting has increased. All the meteorological observation sites in Jejudo have been classified into 6 groups using a cluster analysis. Four pairs of observation sites among them, all having strong wind speed correlation within the same meteorological group, were chosen for a model test. In the development of the wind speed forecasting model for Jejudo, it was confirmed that not only the use a wind dataset at the objective site itself, but the introduction of another wind dataset at the nearest site having a strong wind speed correlation within the same group, would enhance the goodness to fit of the forecasting. A transfer function model and a neural network model were also confirmed to offer reliable predictions, with the similar goodness to fit level.

Improvement of crossflow model of MULTID component in MARS-KS with inter-channel mixing model for enhancing analysis performance in rod bundle

  • Yunseok Lee;Taewan Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.4357-4366
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    • 2023
  • MARS-KS, a domestic regulatory confirmatory code of Republic of Korea, had been developed by integrating RELAP5/MOD2 and COBRA-TF. The integration of COBRA-TF allowed to extend the capability of MARS-KS, limited to one-dimensional analysis, to multi-dimensional analysis. The use of COBRA-TF was mainly focused on subchannel analyses for simulating multi-dimensional behavior within the reactor core. However, this feature has been remained as a legacy without ongoing maintenance. Meanwhile, MARS-KS also includes its own multidimensional component, namely MULTID, which is also feasible to simulate three-dimensional convection and diffusion. The MULTID is capable of modeling the turbulent diffusion using simple mixing length model. The implementation of the turbulent mixing is of importance for analyzing the reactor core where a disturbing cross-sectional structure of rod bundle makes the flow perturbation and corresponding mixing stronger. In addition, the presence of this turbulent behavior allows the secondary transports with net mass exchange between subchannels. However, a series of assessments performed in previous studies revealed that the turbulence model of the MULTID could not simulate the aforementioned effective mixing occurred in the subchannel-scale problems. This is obvious consequence since the physical models of the MULTID neglect the effect of mass transport and thereby, it cannot model the void drift effect and resulting phasic distribution within a bundle. Thus, in this study, the turbulence mixing model of the MULTID has been improved by means of the inter-channel mixing model, widely utilized in subchannel analysis, in order to extend the application of the MULTID to small-scale problems. A series of assessments has been performed against rod bundle experiments, namely GE 3X3 and PSBT, to evaluate the performance of the introduced mixing model. The assessment results revealed that the application of the inter-channel mixing model allowed to enhance the prediction of the MULTID in subchannel scale problems. In addition, it was indicated that the code could not predict appropriate phasic distribution in the rod bundle without the model. Considering that the proper prediction of the phasic distribution is important when considering pin-based and/or assembly-based expressions of the reactor core, the results of this study clearly indicate that the inter-channel mixing model is required for analyzing the rod bundle, appropriately.

A Study of Estimation Method for Auto-Regressive Model with Non-Normal Error and Its Prediction Accuracy (비정규 오차를 고려한 자기회귀모형의 추정법 및 예측성능에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Bo Mi;Park, Cheong-Sool;Kim, Jun Seok;Kim, Sung-Shick;Baek, Jun-Geol
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2013
  • We propose a method for estimating coefficients of AR (autoregressive) model which named MLPAR (Maximum Likelihood of Pearson system for Auto-Regressive model). In the present method for estimating coefficients of AR model, there is an assumption that residual or error term of the model follows the normal distribution. In common cases, we can observe that the error of AR model does not follow the normal distribution. So the normal assumption will cause decreasing prediction accuracy of AR model. In the paper, we propose the MLPAR which does not assume the normal distribution of error term. The MLPAR estimates coefficients of auto-regressive model and distribution moments of residual by using pearson distribution system and maximum likelihood estimation. Comparing proposed method to auto-regressive model, results are shown to verify improved performance of the MLPAR in terms of prediction accuracy.

Optimization of Fuzzy Systems by Means of GA and Weighting Factor (유전자 알고리즘과 하중값을 이용한 퍼지 시스템의 최적화)

  • Park, Byoung-Jun;Oh, Sung-Kwun;Ahn, Tae-Chon;Kim, Hyun-Ki
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.789-799
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, the optimization of fuzzy inference systems is proposed for fuzzy model of nonlinear systems. A fuzzy model needs to be identified and optimized by means of the definite and systematic methods, because a fuzzy model is primarily acquired by expert's experience. The proposed rule-based fuzzy model implements system structure and parameter identification using the HCM(Hard C-mean) clustering method, genetic algorithms and fuzzy inference method. Two types of inference methods of a fuzzy model are the simplified inference and linear inference. in this paper, nonlinear systems are expressed using the identification of structure such as input variables and the division of fuzzy input subspaces, and the identification of parameters of a fuzzy model. To identify premise parameters of fuzzy model, the genetic algorithms is used and the standard least square method with the gaussian elimination method is utilized for the identification of optimum consequence parameters of fuzzy model. Also, the performance index with weighting factor is proposed to achieve a balance between the performance results of fuzzy model produced for the training and testing data set, and it leads to enhance approximation and predictive performance of fuzzy system. Time series data for gas furnace and sewage treatment process are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model.

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Sensitivity Analysis on Off-Design Performance of Centrifugal Compressor Due to the Parameters of Two-zone Model and TEIS Model (두영역 모델과 직렬두요소 모델의 변수에 의한 원심 압축기 탈설계 성능의 민감도 분석)

  • Yoon, Sung-Ho;Baek, Je-Hyun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.834-844
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    • 2000
  • In this study, an off-design performance analysis procedure is developed based on Two-zone model and TEIS model. In Two-zone model, there are both primary zone and secondary zone for an isentropic core flow and an average of all non-isentropic streamtubes respectively. The level of the core flow diffusion in an impeller is calculated by using TEIS model which regards the impeller as two successive rotating elements in series. At impeller exit, the mixing process occurs with an increase in entropy, that is to say, a decrease in total pressure. In loss models including Two-zone and TEIS model, some empirical parameters have a great influence on overall performance curve. So these parameters' influences on the overall performance curve are investigated and compared with experimental data.

A study of actual planning how to increase IT productivity by COCOMO II Model (IT산업 생산성 향상을 위한 프로젝트 실행계획 수립 방안 연구 - COCOMO II 적용사례)

  • Park, Cheol-Gu;Kim, Chang-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.147-152
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    • 2010
  • Project implementation plan is a blueprint that confirms project performance activities and specifies required man-hour, period and resource imput ratio. Various figures, the results of implementation plan, are predicted through estimation, and because of superiority of objectivity and repeatability, numerical formula-based estimation model is often used overseas. COCOMO model is the representative estimation model whose theories and formulas are publicized and it predicts the total man-hour required for software system development. This model is publicized in "Software Engineering Economics" written by Professor Barry Boehm of the U.S., and is the most widely applied numerical formula-based estimation model. This study is conducted to provide a series of methods that are optimal for KTDS environment by choosing COCOMO II model among various types of COCOMO models. In establishing implementation plan, COCOMO II model alone is not sufficient, it is necessary to link with and apply standard WBS system and standard man-hour. In establishing specific implementation plan, phased standard WBS system in order of the first phase of all the activities implemented in the project, Activity, Task, and Role, and the man-hour put into this should be distributed according to standard ratio from COCOMO II model's total man-hour. This study provides explainations by establishing standard WBS system and linking with COCOMO II model.

A Study on the Startup Growth Stage in Korea (스타트업 성장단계 구분에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kim, Sunwoo;Kim, Kangmin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to classify individual startups by growth stage based on data-based quantitative criteria. This is to provide a basis for systematic support for government startups based on accurate statistics on the startup growth process. This startups were the TIPS (Tech Incubator Program for Startup) support company, which used a relatively reliable startup. We found seed money to complete MVP (Minimum Viable Product) within 1.5 years after establishment, verified PMF (Product-Market Fit) within 1 year, attracted Series A investment within 2.5 years after establishment, and successfully commercialized it. It attracted Series B investment for stable growth within 1.5 years (Series B investment within 4 years from start-up). The results of the study, the division of government programs that support stage-based startup commercialization, that is, within three years and within seven years of establishment, is significant to date. Three directions are suggested for future research. First, develop indicators for monitoring startup growth stages. Second, it continuously updates the annual changes and tracks the growth stages of individual startups. Third, we discover the successful growth law of technology-based startups by applying in-depth case analysis of successful startups to the model.