• The Journal of the Korean Institute of Forest Recreation
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.11-22
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• 2018

This study analyzes the economic feasibility on the transition of production structure to increase income for a local forest village in Laos PDR. The study area was the Nongboua village in Sangthong district where the primary product is rice from rice paddy. Possible strategies were considered to increase the villagers' revenue, and Noni (Morinda citrifolia) was production in the short-term. We assumed that the project period was for 20 years for the analysis, and a total of 1,100 Noni tree was planted in 1 ha by $3m{\times}3m$ spacing. This study classified basic scenario one, scenario two, scenario three by the survival rate and purchase pirce of Noni. Generally Noni grows well. However, the seedlings' average survival rate (= production volume) was set up conservatively in this study to consider potential risks such as no production experience of Noni and tree disease. The scenario one assumed that the survival rate of Noni seedlings was 50% for 0-1 years, 60% for 0-2 years, and 70% for 3-20 years; the scenario two, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, and 60%; and the scenario three, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, 60% and purchase price 10% less, i.e., $0.29 to $0.26, respectively. Our analysis showed that all 3 scenarios resulted in economically-feasible IRR (internal rate of return) of 24.81%, 19.02%, and 16.30% of with a discounting rate of 10%. The B/C (benefit/cost) ratio for a unit area (1ha) was also analyzed for the three scenarios with a discounting rate of 10%, resutling in the B/C ratio of 1.71, 1.47, and 1.31. The study results showed that the Nongboua village would have a good opportunity to improve its low-income structure through planting and managing alternative crops such as Noni. Also the results can be used as useful decision-making information at a preliminary analysis level for planning other government and public investment projects for the Nonboua village.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.123-139
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• 2011

This paper researches the value of domestic telecommunication bundle products. Customers evaluate each telecommunication products differently according to their attributes. The attributes affecting the customer value of telecommunication bundling can be categorized in 3 ones as follows; corporate image, service feature, and service price. Also authors analyze the difference of importancy that customers consider when they evaluate each products, and propose the optimal scenario for bundling. In conclusion, other two companies A, C excluding B should invest more resources into the portion that strengthen the attributes of company image, and service feature to upgrade their 'corporate image', and 'service feature'. According to 6-scenarios analysis on the bundle products, the QPS expansion of company A was the most advantageous position, but if companies B, C expand DPS made use of their strengths, they can prevent from decreasing additivity rapidly with sequential scenario. The above results show that one company may have equable power in each area, but if another company having strengths in special areas makes up for its weakness and differentiates gradually it can contribute to strengthen its competitiveness. This contributed much more theoretical and practical than the existing researches. Supposing that additivity index evaluated by consumers can be changed by efforts of companies, this scenario planning is the result of study showing that the investment and publicity of each company have to be considered as its characteristic of each product at the same time.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.191-202
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• 2009

South Korea, ranks 10th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, will probably be under the obligation to reduce GHG emission from 2013. It is very important to reduce the electrical energy consumption since 30% of GHG emission in South Korea is made during electricity generation. In this study, based on "the 1st national energy master plan", the GHG emission reduction potential and the feasibility of the scenario in the electricity generation have been analyzed using LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system). The scenario of the mater plan contains the 41% expansion of nuclear power plant facilities and the 11% diffusion of renewable energy until 2030. In result, total $CO_2$ emission reduction rate is 28.8% in 2030. Also $CO_2$ emission of unit electricity generation of bituminous coal power plant is $0.85kgCO_2/kWh$ and its LNG power plant is $0.51kgCO_2/kWh$ in BAU scenario. Therefore when existing facilities is exchanged for nuclear or renewable energy power plant, substitute of bituminous power plant is more effective than LNG power.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.65-75
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• 2006

Transparency on the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) is the key issue to enhance the public acceptance for a radioactive repository. To approve it, all performances on TSPA through Quality Assurance is necessary. The integrated Cyber R&D Platform is developed by KAERI using the T2R3 principles applicable for five major steps : planning, research work, documentation, and internal & external audits in R&D's. The proposed system is implemented in the web-based system so that all participants in TSPA are able to access the system. It is composed of three sub-systems; FEAS (FEp to Assessment through Scenario development) showing systematic approach from the FEPs to Assessment methods flow chart, PAID (Performance Assessment Input Databases) being designed to easily search and review field data for TSPA and QA system containing the administrative system for QA on five key steps in R&D's in addition to approval and disapproval processes, corrective actions, and permanent record keeping. All information being recorded in QA system through T2R3 principles is integrated into Cyber R&D Platform so that every data in the system can be checked whenever necessary. Throughout the next phase R&D, Cyber R&D Platform will be connected with the assessment tool for TSPA so that it will be expected to search the whole information in one unified system.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.114-128
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• 2013

Rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. In response to these challenges, many scholar and government hope to achieve sustainable development through the establishment and management of environment-friendly planning. For this purpose, we would like to analyze functional change for ecosystem by future land-use/cover changes in South Korea. Toward this goal, we predicted land-use/cover changes from 2010 to 2060 using the future population of Statistics Korea and urban growth probability map created by logistic regression analysis and analyzed ecosystem service value using costanza's coefficient. In the case of scenario 1, ecosystem service value represented 6,783~7,092 million USD. In the case of scenario 2, ecosystem represented 6,775~7,089 million USD, 2.9~7.6 million USD decreased compared by scenario 1. This was the result of area reduction for farmland and wetland which have high environmental value relatively according to urban growth by development point of view. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection. Quantitative analysis of environmental values in accordance with environmental policy can help inform the decisions of policy makers and urban developers. Furthermore, forecasting urban growth based on future demand will provide more precise predictive analysis.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.59-73
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• 2010

One of the most important issues for projecting future water resources and establishing climate change adaptation strategies is 'uncertainty'. In Korea, climate change research results were very heterogeneous even in a same basin, but there have been few climate change studies dealt with the uncertainty reduction. This is because emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling, and rainfall-runoff models that were used in the previous studies were almost all different. In this research, fifty one GCM scenarios based A and B emission scenarios were downloaded and then compared with the observed values for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The downloaded GCM scenarios in general simulated well the observed but did not simulated well the observed precipitation especially for the flood season in Korea. The accuracy of each GCM scenario was measured with the model efficiency, PDF-based, and Relative Entropy methodology. Among the selected GCM scenarios with three methodologies, the four common GCM scenarios(CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, B1), MIROC3.2medress(NIES, B1), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A2), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A1B) were finally selected. Results of the four selected GCMs were heterogeneity and projected increases of precipitation for the Korean Peninsula by from 27.36% to 12.49%, respectively. It seems very risky to rely a water planning or a management policy on use of a single climate change scenario and from this research results. Therefore, the four selected GCM scenarios proposed quantitatively were considered firstly for the water supply in the dry season and the drought management strategy in the Korean Peninsula for the future.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.202-217
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• 2018

Urban land use changes by human activities affect spatial configuration of urban areas and their surrounding ecosystems. Although it is necessary to identify patterns of urban land use changes and to simulate future changes for sustainable urban management, simulation of land use changes is still challenging due to their uncertainty and complexity. Cellular automata model is widely used to simulate urban land use changes based on cell-based approaches. However, cell-based models can not reflect features of actual land use changes and tend to simulate fragmented patterns. To solve these problems, object-based cellular automata models are developed, which simulate land use changes by land patches. This study simulate future land use changes in Hanam city using an object-based cellular automata model. Figure of merit of the model is 24.1%, which assess accuracy of the simulation results. When a baseline scenario was applied, urban decreased by 16.4% while agriculture land increased by 9.0% and grass increased by 19.3% in a simulation result of 2038 years. In an urban development scenario, urban increased by 22.4% and agriculture land decreased by 26.1% while forest and grass did not have significant changes. In a natural conservation scenario, urban decreased by 29.5% and agriculture land decreased by 8.8% while each forest and grass increased by 6% and 42.8%. The model can be useful to simulate realistic urban land use change effectively, and then, applied as a decision support tool for spatial planning.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.511-524
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to provide policy recommendations for manpower planning by forecasting the supply and demand of Medical Technologists. Supply was estimated using an in-and-out movement method with a demographic method based on a baseline projection model. Demand was projected according to a demand-based method using the number of clinico-pathologic examinations taken for Medical Technologists. Over- or undersupply of Medical Technologists will depend on the productivity scenario and assumptions and ultimately on governmental policy direction. In other words, whether the production of Medical Technologists is higher or lower than the current level depends on the government policy to consider insurance finances. In this study, we assessed 'productivity scenario 3' based on the productivity as of 2012, when the government's policy direction was not considered. Based on the demand scenario using the ARIMA model, the supply of Medical Technologists is expected to be excessive. This oversupply accounts for less than 10% of the total and therefore should not be a big problem. However, given that the employment rate of Medical Technologists is 60%, it is necessary to consider policies to utilize the unemployed. These measures should expand the employment opportunities for the unemployed. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the functions of laboratories in the public health center, to increase the quota of Medical Technologists, to assure their status, to establish a permanent inspection system for outpatient patients, and to expand the export of Medical Technologists overseas.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

In an effort to establish adaptive measures for low carbon use and climate change, this study developed storylines for shared socio-economic reference pathways(SSP) and simulated change in land use for each storyline. First, cellular automata modeling was performed using past data, and a transition rule for the local characteristics of each planning area under study was derived by comparing with the results of the base year. Second, three storylines were formulated based on the hypothesized change in land use for the SSP. SSP1, the scenario for sustainability, assumed that the land was developed into a compact city, SSP2 assumed the development of a road through the middle of the land while maintaining the current situation, and SSP3 assumed unsustainable development into a fragmented world. Third, change in land use depending on planning area was predicted by integrating the SSP scenarios with cellular automata(CA) modeling. According to the results of analysis using the SSP scenarios, the urban area ratio increased slightly up to 2020 in SSP1 and up to 2030 in SSP2 and did not change any more subsequently, but it increased continuously until 2050 in SSP3 that assumed low level urban planning. These results on change in land use are expected to contribute towards making reasonable decisions and policies on climate change, and the outcomes of simulation derived from spatial downscaling, if applied to vulnerability assessment, will be useful to set the priority of policies on climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.87-94
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• 1995

At both international and national levels, such as in the Rio Declaration and the EU's Fifth Environmental Action Plan, governments have committed themselves to the adoption of the precautionary principle (UNCED 1992, CEC 1992). These commitments mean that the existence of uncertainty in appraising policies and proposals for development should be acknowledged. Uncertainty arise in both the prediction of impacts and in the evaluation of their significance, particularly of those cumulative impacts which are individually insignificant but cumulatively damaging. The EC network of EIA experts, stated at their last meeting in Athens that indirect effects and the treatment of uncertainty are one of the main deficiencies of current EIA practice. Uncertainties in decision-making arise where choices have been made in the development of the policy or proposal, such as the selection of options, the justification for that choice, and the selection of different indicators to comply with different regulatory regimes. It is also likely that a weighting system for evaluating significance will have been used which may be implicit rather than explicit. Those involved in decision-making may employ different tolerances of uncertainty than members of the public, for instance over the consideration of the worst-case scenario. Possible methods for dealing with these uncertainties include scenarios, sensitivity analysis, showing points of view, decision analysis, postponing decisions and graphical methods. An understanding of the development of cumulative environmental impacts affords not only ecologic but also socio-economic investigations. Since cumulative impacts originate mainly in centres of urban or industrial development, in particular an analysis of future growth effects that might possibly be induced by certain development impacts. Not least it is seen as an matter of sustainability to connect this issue with ecological research. The serious attempt to reduce the area of uncertainty in environmental planning is a challenge and an important step towards reliable planning and sustainable development.